Cherney: Soft-power exchange is more likely for Taiwan than military invasion
Max Cherney · Can NVIDIA Keep Its Lead? — With Anissa Gardizy, Max Cherney, and Lauren Goode · Jul 10, 2026 · at 12:07
Reuters semiconductor reporter Max Cherney analyzes geopolitical risks surrounding Taiwan and TSMC's manufacturing concentration.
0:00 / 0:12exact quote · 12.5s
▶ Watch the full episode on YouTube → 720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“I think what's a lot more likely is some kind of soft power exchange like what happened in Hong Kong over time. I think realistically, that's a more Likely option, although I'm not saying Xi Jinping won't just invade like he absolutely will.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Max Cherney
Cherney: US chip designers have no contingency plan for Taiwan disruption
“Chip companies, the design companies in the US do not plan for this. The contingency plan, excuse me, is something along the lines of like, well, we're all kind of screwed if China invades, which, OK, but like, there's no real plan there.”
Cherney: US chip designers have no real contingency plan for Taiwan invasion
“Chip companies, the design companies in the US do not plan for this. The contingency plan, excuse me, is something along the lines of like, well, we're all kind of screwed if China invades, which, OK, but like, there's no real plan there.”
Cherney: China Cannot Effectively Produce Sub-Leading-Edge Transistors Without EUV Machines
“They run up to up to the limit of like, they can't buy UV machines. The big ones that Lauren was just talking about. So if you can't buy those things, it's just fundamentally difficult to make transistors below a certain size and they can't do it effectively.”
Cherney: Nvidia has run out of growth avenues outside China
“Nvidia has run out of places to grow. They can't sell to any more countries. They can't sell to any more hyperscalers. They can't sell to any more. Even they're going after the enterprise market, which is messy and complicated and difficult to actually make a …”
Cherney: NVIDIA Has Run Out of Countries and Hyperscalers to Fuel Growth
“Nvidia has run out of places to grow. They can't sell to any more countries. They can't sell to any more hyperscalers.”
Cherney: Semiconductor factory buildouts are very likely to cause painful overcapacity
“It's very likely, I would say that we're going to lead, we're going to see some over capacity essentially. So like people are building, especially memory companies are building tons of factories right now. And typically the chip industry is, again, I'm sure ev…”