The Ledger
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Cherney: US chip designers have no contingency plan for Taiwan disruption
“Chip companies, the design companies in the US do not plan for this. The contingency plan, excuse me, is something along the lines of like, well, we're all kind of screwed if China invades, which, OK, but like, there's no real plan there.”
Cherney: US chip designers have no real contingency plan for Taiwan invasion
“Chip companies, the design companies in the US do not plan for this. The contingency plan, excuse me, is something along the lines of like, well, we're all kind of screwed if China invades, which, OK, but like, there's no real plan there.”
Cherney: China Cannot Effectively Produce Sub-Leading-Edge Transistors Without EUV Machines
“They run up to up to the limit of like, they can't buy UV machines. The big ones that Lauren was just talking about. So if you can't buy those things, it's just fundamentally difficult to make transistors below a certain size and they can't do it effectively.”
Cherney: Nvidia has run out of growth avenues outside China
“Nvidia has run out of places to grow. They can't sell to any more countries. They can't sell to any more hyperscalers. They can't sell to any more. Even they're going after the enterprise market, which is messy and complicated and difficult to actually make a …”
Cherney: Soft-power exchange is more likely for Taiwan than military invasion
“I think what's a lot more likely is some kind of soft power exchange like what happened in Hong Kong over time. I think realistically, that's a more Likely option, although I'm not saying Xi Jinping won't just invade like he absolutely will.”
Cherney: NVIDIA Has Run Out of Countries and Hyperscalers to Fuel Growth
“Nvidia has run out of places to grow. They can't sell to any more countries. They can't sell to any more hyperscalers.”
Cherney: Semiconductor factory buildouts are very likely to cause painful overcapacity
“It's very likely, I would say that we're going to lead, we're going to see some over capacity essentially. So like people are building, especially memory companies are building tons of factories right now. And typically the chip industry is, again, I'm sure ev…”
Cherney: SMIC cannot effectively manufacture advanced sub-node chips without EUV machines
“Their manufacturing process is, is a lot worse. Like one of the research firms just published an analysis of the sort of one of the new Chinese chips, like homemade by SMIC. And it's like, it's good, but they're, they run up to the limit of, like, they can't b…”
Cherney: Chip industry likely faces overcapacity and severe cyclical downturn
“Very likely, I would say that we're going to lead, we're going to see some over capacity essentially. So like people are building, especially memory companies are building tons of factories right now. And typically the chip industry is, again, I'm sure everybo…”