The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Schmidhuber: Trillion-Dollar AI GPU CapEx Will Lose $900B Within Five Years
“Now if you invest one thousand billion dollars today into GPUs for data centers, this means that within five years you are going to lose nine hundred billion dollars, you know. Somebody is going to lose nine hundred billion dollars in the near future because t…”
Schmidhuber: Large language models alone cannot lead to AGI
“Yeah, so when the phrase, when the question is phrased like this, does an LLM, a large language model by itself, lead to AGI, the answer is a clear no.”
Schmidhuber: AIs Have Felt Pain Since at Least 1990
“I always think it's funny that many people claim, even computer scientists claim, that AIs cannot feel pain because our AIs have felt pain At least since 1990, you know.”
Schmidhuber: No Objective Distinction Exists Between Biological and Artificial Emotions
“There's no way of objectively seeing the difference between the emotions of a Of reward maximizing biological brain and the emotions of a reward maximizing artificial brain.”
Schmidhuber: Future universe-shaping decisions will be made by AIs, not humans
“So either you are nostalgic and remain irrelevant, or you become part of this growing sociology, if you will, of AIs, which are mostly AIs, and some of them may have human roots and whatever, but almost all the decision-making process and the universe-shaping …”
Schmidhuber: Robots will soon learn to operate all existing physical machines
“And I think the culmination point of that, which I've been talking about again for decades, is at some point in the not so distant future, we will have a robot that doesn't have to be super smart, but just smart enough to learn to operate all the already exist…”
Schmidhuber: Physical robotics hardware evolves much slower than compute per dollar
“The artificial hands, the artificial bodies that we are trying to build for humanoid robots and so on, they are evolving much less rapidly than the compute per dollar. And I think that's the main problem.”
Schmidhuber: Proprietary AI Labs Have No Moat Against Open Source
“None of the companies have has a mode, you know, because whenever there's a new benchmark breaking record or something, benchmark, record breaking language model that does this or this or whatever. A few months later, there's the same thing in open source, you…”
Schmidhuber: AI Will Soon Run Locally Without Internet or Cloud
“Soon AI will not be in the cloud, you know. No, it will be local, on your local computer, a small little computer, it will be as powerful as what's now in the cloud, but you won't have to connect it to the internet”
Schmidhuber: AI Achieves Self-Awareness When World Models Simulate Self-Representation
“Whenever the agent is, is making plans like that, it's thinking about itself, waking up these internal representations of itself, and then it's self-aware.”
Schmidhuber: No physical laws prevent uploading human minds into computers
“There is no physical reason to reject the notion that this might be possible.”
Schmidhuber: Turing test is a bad metric for measuring true intelligence
“However, it just means that the Turing test is a bad way of measuring intelligence, because there is no AI in the physical world, outside of the screen, that can do all the things that a little boy can do, that can do the things that a plumber can do.”