The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Luria: Falling GPU rental prices could trigger systemic AI debt defaults
“If we are here two years from now and there's hundreds of billions of dollars of debt, And the demand for AI stabilizes, or we built enough data centers to support the demand we have at that point in time, and the price for leasing pieces of AI for renting acc…”
Luria: Three-year GPU depreciation would drastically cut Oracle and CoreWeave profits
“If you told Amazon and Microsoft, and certainly if you told companies like Oracle and CoreWeave, no, no, no, no. These chips will only generate meaningful revenue for three years. Their profitability would decline very dramatically. So again, from Microsoft, A…”
Luria: Three-year-old AI chips will not generate sufficient revenue to run
“And that's where we think in a three year timeframe, three year old chips will just not be able to do enough computations to be worth keeping them on. So either we replace them or we use them for much less important things. That will generate much less revenue…”
Luria: OpenAI won't make it if it builds datacenters and chips
“If they go down the current path, over committing, Deciding that they have to build their own data centers, they need their own hardware, they need their own chips, they won't make it.”
Luria: OpenAI is a negative gross margin business
“Open AI is a negative gross margin business. They claim they're not, but they are right. Which is to say it costs them more to answer your chat GPT question than they make revenue from you.”
Luria: Meta used a Blue Owl SPV to finance data centers off-balance-sheet
“The other thing that happened with Meta that was interesting is that when they Went out to borrow. They didn't borrow the capital. They created a special purpose vehicle, right? They went out with Blue Owl and they said, you know, we'll put a couple of billion…”
Luria: OpenAI promised $1.4 trillion across Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, CoreWeave
“OpenAI promised me three hundred billion. They also promised Microsoft two hundred billion, Amazon thirty eight billion, CoreWeave twenty five billion. In total, 1.4 trillion dollars.”
Luria: OpenAI will generate at most $15B revenue, lose over $20B
“A company that at best will have fifteen billion dollars of revenue this year and will be losing more than that. So we'll be losing probably more than twenty billion dollars this year.”
Luria: Roughly half of Microsoft's AI revenue comes from OpenAI
“Half of their AI revenue approximately which is again, a big piece of the Azure growth, which is the biggest piece of Microsoft's growth, is coming from OpenAI.”
Luria: Hyperscalers will buy bankrupt AI data centers for pennies
“So if I'm Microsoft, I know that in two or three years, I probably won't have to do any capex because I'll be able to buy data centers out of bankruptcy for pennies on the dollar.”
Luria: ChatGPT will become profitable as users accept higher prices
“So as we use ChatGPT a lot more broadly, we're going to be willing to go from a 20 dollar a month price point to a much higher price point. So at some point, this is a product that will be profitable. We just have to expand the usage so much that the people th…”
Luria: Meta Lacks Enterprise Customers to Rent Out Excess Data Center Capacity
“Meta again is an unusual situation because they don't actually have business customers to rent this capacity to. It really is just Mr. Zuckerberg wanting a bigger and bigger toy.”
Luria: AI companies park diesel trucks behind the meter to power chips
“And then what these companies are doing is putting power, what they call behind the meter, which is to say generators and turbines and diesel trucks, because it's so lucrative that it's worth it for them to park 10 diesel trucks and run them so they can power …”
Luria: ChatGPT has reached 800 million weekly active users
“And they came out with a great consumer product that we now know as ChadGPT and now has eight hundred million weekly active users and is driven the fastest growth of any startup ever.”