The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
AI Cannot Fully Automate Any Single US Occupation, Study Finds
“What we found was that in most jobs, there were some tasks that machine learning could do better than humans, or would be able to if you applied the technology, and there's kind of a gold rush now to do that. But in not a single occupation, we looked at all of…”
Brynjolfsson: Next Tech Wave Will Disproportionately Hit Lower-Skill Jobs
“Our analysis that we did in a follow-up paper with Daniel Rock of Wharton suggests that as with the previous wave, the next wave of technology also will disproportionately affect some of the lower and middle skill jobs compared to the higher skill jobs”
Society Over-Incentivizes Labor Automation Over Human Augmentation
“In the Turing Trap article, I argue that, as I said earlier, while both of those strategies can in principle be profitable, right now there are excess incentives to focus on substitution and automation, and then not enough to focus on complementing humans.”
Davos Attendees Genuinely Want to Improve the World, Not Just Hoard Wealth
“I think a big misconception about Davos is is, you know, there's all, The plutocrats and all the wealth and power that's here. But the people who come here they really do seem sincerely interested in changing the world to make it better.”
AI Can Augment or Replace at Least $1 Trillion of Economic Work
“If you look at the subset of tasks where machine learning can Help or take over for humans or augment humans. It adds up to about a trillion dollars worth of work if you were most conservative.”
AI Depresses Middle-Skill Wages Rather Than Creating Mass Unemployment
“It's taking certain tasks. It's not leading to mass unemployment, but it is shifting the demand for different types of skills, and so there are places where there's less demand and there's more demand, and wages in some areas are depressed when a machine can d…”
Robotic Process Automation Was Overhyped Because It Merely Automates Existing Tasks
“I think that RPA was a bit overhyped, and so there's a bit of a bubble. There's definitely some value there, but in the end, it's what I said earlier. It's kind of focusing on taking what people are already doing, and automating that often they'll literally, l…”
Technology Is the Primary Driver of US Wage Structure Shifts
“Of the three, most economists would say that technology's the single biggest one. Larry Katz, who runs the quarterly Journal of Economics and who's, you know, leading labor economist, looked at many of these issues says that it's not even close.”
Amazon Would Not Be a $2 Trillion Company by Merely Automating Cashiers
“If he had been uncreative, he would have walked into a bookstore and said, you know, that cashier, we could automate the cashier. We could put a robot where the cashier is and check people out with a robot cashier. And you know, maybe that would have led to a …”