The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ives: Current fiscal year will be Apple's strongest iPhone unit year ever
“So regardless of what you want to say about Apple intelligence, if it's going to be rolled out in October, November, January, February, in the next, for this fiscal year, this will, unless some black swan event happens, be the strongest iPhone unit year ever h…”
Ives: 20% of consumers will access AI through Apple within 18 months
“The second is that it's our view, regardless of timing, next 1218 months, 20% of the world ultimately is going to access AI, especially as more developers build apps through an Apple device.”
Ives: Apple's services business will reach a $2 trillion valuation
“That services piece that at one point was valued, five hundred billion, I think it's going to be closer to two trillion in terms of the valuation as that reaches 125 hundred fifty billion per year.”
Ives: Apple's China sales will grow 15% to 20% next year
“But Alex, if you look at comps, the next year, China's gonna be up 15, 20%, and that's why, like, the bears, when they come out of hibernation mood with iPhone mathematical gymnastics trying to scare people, the reason the stock's not doing anything, because i…”
Ives: Apple upgrade cycle will drive stock regardless of AI
“This upgrade cycle in itself without AI, the stock's going to work. The AI piece is ultimately the start of how most consumers in the world are going to eventually interact with AI.”
Ives: Meta and Google will eventually integrate into Apple Intelligence
“Apple basically said, we now will be the castle for AI. And if you want access to it, you got to come through Apple intelligence, clearly open AI. I eventually think Meta Google are going to have to make the same move.”
Ives: Europe will fall behind every country in AI
“I mean, you're the way Europe's going. I mean, you're going to have every country in the world is going to be ahead of Europe when it comes to AI.”
Ives: Trump victory will initially hurt AI trade, Apple, and Tesla
“Trump gets in, if he gets in, It is very negative for the AI trade. Initially, semis, tariffs, retaliatory for Apple, Tesla.”
Ives: Khan will leave FTC under Harris, boosting tech sector
“I think the view is Harris gets elected despite all the, you know, sort of antics. I think Khan's out, which would be bullish for tech from an FTC perspective.”
Ives: NVIDIA will reach $4 trillion market cap in 3-6 months
“I think you're looking at four trillion dollar mark cap again in the next three to six months. I mean, that's, I think them and Apple, they battle it out for that finish line to get the four trillion.”
Ives: Google antitrust fight will end in tweaks, not breakups
“This is going to be fought out in court for many years, and I think it will be settlements and business model tweaks, not massive changes.”
Ives: Consumer AI will add $10B-$15B yearly to Apple's services revenue
“My view is from a consumer AI perspective, the monetization here, we think it'd be ultimately an incremental 10, fifteen billion per year of services.”
Ives: Apple gained ~300 bps of China market share over two years
“First off, they've gained about 300 bips of market share in China in the last two years.”
Ives: AI will directly benefit cybersecurity leaders as a derivative play
“AI, Is gonna be a direct beneficiary for cyber. Call it second, third derivative. That's just gonna add CyberArk, Paolo, Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Okta, others.”
Ives: Chinese blockade or takeover of Taiwan is a very low-probability event
“I think there's a view that that's just very low likelihood that that's going to happen. Now look, in Hong Kong, you definitely sense some seat changes in terms of what we see, but look, we're always going to have these sort of, as Stephanie talks about a lot,…”
Ives: Asian supply checks show 15-to-1 demand for NVIDIA Blackwell
“In Asia, we just, it was 15 to one demand to supply. Four months ago, it was 12 to one.”