Dan Ives explains his valuation thesis for Apple's services division on the Big Technology Podcast.
Prediction Held up
Ives: Current fiscal year will be Apple's strongest iPhone unit year ever
“So regardless of what you want to say about Apple intelligence, if it's going to be rolled out in October, November, January, February, in the next, for this fiscal year, this will, unless some black swan event happens, be the strongest iPhone unit year ever h…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ives: 20% of consumers will access AI through Apple within 18 months
“The second is that it's our view, regardless of timing, next 1218 months, 20% of the world ultimately is going to access AI, especially as more developers build apps through an Apple device.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ives: Apple's China sales will grow 15% to 20% next year
“But Alex, if you look at comps, the next year, China's gonna be up 15, 20%, and that's why, like, the bears, when they come out of hibernation mood with iPhone mathematical gymnastics trying to scare people, the reason the stock's not doing anything, because i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ives: Apple upgrade cycle will drive stock regardless of AI
“This upgrade cycle in itself without AI, the stock's going to work. The AI piece is ultimately the start of how most consumers in the world are going to eventually interact with AI.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
Ives: Meta and Google will eventually integrate into Apple Intelligence
“Apple basically said, we now will be the castle for AI. And if you want access to it, you got to come through Apple intelligence, clearly open AI. I eventually think Meta Google are going to have to make the same move.”
Opinion
Ives: Apple-Baidu AI deal is Apple's biggest potential catalyst
“Does Baidu and Apple strike a deal where Baidu becomes ultimately the AI partner? If that, like if you said to me the biggest catalyst that could happen on the name, it's that.”