why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yen: AIs will soon discern who we are better than psychologists
“AIs are going to get better at discerning who we are than probably even a psychologist.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yen: Frontier AI training costs will plummet to $1M in years
“What I mean by this is today, if you want to train a top of the line, you know, our frontier model, that might cost you a couple billion dollars.
But in a couple of years, that might be fifty million to, you know, a hundred million.
And then a few more years o…”
Assertion Supported
Yen: Opting out of AI training does not prevent data collection indefinitely
“Even if they don't use it for training, they can still store it for a long time, actually forever. They can still hand it over to a government under a subpoena. They could leak it if they were hacked in the future. So just because you've opted out of training …”
Assertion Partly supported
Proton survey: 70% of kids have smartphones by 10, mostly using Gmail
“Today around 70% of kids have access to a smartphone by the age of 10, right? This is like seven and 10. And of those, actually, around three quarters are using Gmail.”
Assertion Partly supported
Proton survey: 60% of parents want to erase kids' Big Tech data
“41% of parents say that if they could start over and do things differently with putting their children online, they actually would want to, you know, start over. And 60% would want to be able to erase all the information about the kid that today is on these bi…”