The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gomez: AI Self-Improvement Plateaus and Won't Cause Intelligence Explosion
“Not happening. It's not happening. It improves for, it can self-improve for a while, and then it tapers off. And so, yeah, you get some good improvement out of it, which is why we use it, but then it plateaus. It doesn't just keep going forever.”
Gomez: LLMs Interpolate Known Skills But Do Not Generalize Beyond Them
“I think they can interpolate between skills, and so if they've seen how to do A, and they've seen how to do B, they can get kind of the average of A and B but they don't just go completely beyond anything that they've seen.”
Gomez: Synthetic data struggles outside verifiable domains like math
“Synthetic data Probably doesn't get us out of that, that issue. I actually, I don't know if synthetic data outside of easily verifiable domains like math, it's hard to use synthetic data to drive outcomes.”
Gomez: Frozen AI Tech Would Still Yield Incredible Economic Value
“Even if, you know, like just as a hypothetical even if the technology froze and what we have today is all we get, there's so much good to be done. There is so much work to go do. To implement this technology across the economy really boost productivity, drive …”
Gomez: AI Productivity Expands Total Output in a Supply-Constrained World
“Humanity is very supply side constrained, not demand side. We always, we want more. We want better. We want to be healthier. We want to do more. We want to have things be cheaper. And so we have all this demand and we're trying to keep up with our own society'…”
Gomez: Real Generative AI Value Comes From Boring Enterprise Productivity
“Maybe this stuff feels banal. Maybe productivity feels boring compared to some of the hype of AI, but it is the value. This is what we're trying to build for.”
Gomez: 2023 Was AI Proof of Concept; 2024 Is Scale Production
“So last year was very much the year of the proof of concept. People were getting familiar with the technology. It was their first time working with it. And so there were a lot of small tests and experiments, but this year is very much one of going to productio…”
Gomez: Inner Monologues Are Crucial for Reliable AI Assistants
“I think the notion of using reasoning or letting the model have an inner monologue to work through problems, think through them make mistakes, but then realize that catch mistakes and correct them. I think that's a crucial piece in improving not only the accur…”