The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 27 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gomez: AI will never cause mass unemployment of humans
“Well, because I think that we will never see mass unemployment of humans. I think that this technology is going to unlock more opportunities. It will let us do more as opposed to Scaling back what we do.”
Gomez: AI Models Are Less Capable and More Controllable Than Feared
“As more and more evidence emerges that these models are much more controllable than we may have thought that they're a little bit less capable than we may have thought it's harder and harder to make that narrative.”
Gomez: AI Self-Improvement Plateaus and Won't Cause Intelligence Explosion
“Not happening. It's not happening. It improves for, it can self-improve for a while, and then it tapers off. And so, yeah, you get some good improvement out of it, which is why we use it, but then it plateaus. It doesn't just keep going forever.”
Gomez: AI Can Reach AGI Through The Internet Without Physical Embodiment
“I actually take, I think the less popular view, which is The internet is enough, and by observation, you can actually learn enough to be extremely, extremely compelling. I think that's if we're talking about AGI and doing things as well as humans do, I think t…”
Gomez: AI Training Costs Are Small Relative to Long-Term Value
“I certainly understand the urge for people to see the numbers being spent on training and be concerned that it's not going to recoup in value, but I think that Those numbers are actually small relative to the long-term value that the technology will deliver.”
Gomez: AI Industry Is Building Useful Tools, Not an AGI God
“I don't know about God. Like, I don't think I'd ever use that term to describe what's coming. I think we're going to have some really powerful and useful tools. Emerge. I think that's what's coming. The idea that we're building AGI or something that's just gon…”
Gomez: AI Scaling Gains Will Suffer Diminishing Returns
“I don't think within any achievable scaling up for humanity that will reach that tipping point. It just saturates the gains become much, much smaller. And so you're much less willing to want to pay double the price for a minute difference. But it is pretty con…”
Gomez: LLMs Interpolate Known Skills But Do Not Generalize Beyond Them
“I think they can interpolate between skills, and so if they've seen how to do A, and they've seen how to do B, they can get kind of the average of A and B but they don't just go completely beyond anything that they've seen.”
Gomez: Synthetic data struggles outside verifiable domains like math
“Synthetic data Probably doesn't get us out of that, that issue. I actually, I don't know if synthetic data outside of easily verifiable domains like math, it's hard to use synthetic data to drive outcomes.”
Gomez: Cohere Has Zero Examples of Enterprise Customers Replacing Staff
“I am not aware of it. I don't think I have any example of that happening. It's very assistive actually. So it's less about replacement. It's more about augmentation. Like at the moment, what everyone's building are tools to augment their workforce to make them…”
Gomez: AI Progress Will Be a Continuous Curve, Not a Step Change
“I don't see a step change coming, but I see a steady continuous course towards very high accuracy, very high reliability AI.”
Gomez: Frozen AI Tech Would Still Yield Incredible Economic Value
“Even if, you know, like just as a hypothetical even if the technology froze and what we have today is all we get, there's so much good to be done. There is so much work to go do. To implement this technology across the economy really boost productivity, drive …”
Gomez: Massive AI Models Are Useless If Too Expensive To Deploy
“My personal perspective is that, you know, building a massive model, it's not actually useful for the world if it's too big to be consumed, if it's too expensive to actually deploy.”
Gomez: AI Productivity Expands Total Output in a Supply-Constrained World
“Humanity is very supply side constrained, not demand side. We always, we want more. We want better. We want to be healthier. We want to do more. We want to have things be cheaper. And so we have all this demand and we're trying to keep up with our own society'…”
Gomez: Real Generative AI Value Comes From Boring Enterprise Productivity
“Maybe this stuff feels banal. Maybe productivity feels boring compared to some of the hype of AI, but it is the value. This is what we're trying to build for.”
Gomez: 2023 Was AI Proof of Concept; 2024 Is Scale Production
“So last year was very much the year of the proof of concept. People were getting familiar with the technology. It was their first time working with it. And so there were a lot of small tests and experiments, but this year is very much one of going to productio…”
Gomez: Next-Gen AI Models Will Break Far Less Frequently
“I expect them to be far more robust, reliable and I expect that they'll just be more capable. There's lots of things today that models break in unsupp, in surprising ways, and I think that's going to start to become rarer and rarer. We're going to be able to p…”
Gomez: AGI Matching Human Performance Is Achievable and Reasonable
“I mean, with that definition of AGI, I think it's both Achievable and a fairly reasonable target.”
Gomez: Inner Monologues Are Crucial for Reliable AI Assistants
“I think the notion of using reasoning or letting the model have an inner monologue to work through problems, think through them make mistakes, but then realize that catch mistakes and correct them. I think that's a crucial piece in improving not only the accur…”
Gomez: AI Safety Debate Has Shifted From Doom to Practical Concerns
“I think you see the discourse shifting now. I think the discourse has begun to shift away from doom and existential risk. And now it's much more about practical concerns, which I'm really happy to see”
Gomez: Synthetic Data Makes Up a Growing Portion of Cohere's Training
“More and more synthetic data is becoming a huge chunk of the data that we train on.”
Gomez: Cohere Powers Over 50 Applications in Oracle Enterprise Suite
“So there's some good examples of that with our partner Oracle, which they have this suite of applications, which basically power enterprise, HR, supply chain all of these sorts of back office functions. And we're powering over 50 different applications within …”
Gomez: Cohere Targets On-Premises Deployments for Regulated Industries
“So Cohere has had a long time focus on, on-prem as well, because for a lot of regulated industries, like finance and healthcare, a lot of that data doesn't actually go on the cloud.”
Gomez: AI will become daily collaborative partners within two years
“In the next two years, I think we're going to start to see really compelling assistance. It won't just be little convenience functions or small features. It'll look a lot like a partner that you do work with. Someone that you interact with every single day and…”