The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,136 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Wang: China's DeepSeek produced the first replication of OpenAI's o1 model
“OpenAI released O-one and released the O-one preview a number of months ago... Yeah, this is OpenAI's advanced reasoning model, which is great at sort of scientific reasoning and mathematical reasoning and reasoning and code, et cetera. And the very first repl…”
Wang: Militaries will deploy AI agents in active combat in 2025
“20, 25 will be the year where we start to see several militaries around the world start utilizing AI agents in active warfighting environments to great effect.”
Wang: AI will eventually formulate hypotheses, run tests, and conduct research autonomously
“Eventually It'll be able to start making its own hypotheses, running those tests on its own, and sort of ultimately making its own sort of discoveries or realizations or sort of conduct its own research.”
Garman: Trainium 2 Delivers 30% to 40% Better Price-Performance Than GPUs
“We see 30 to 40% price performance games versus our instances that are GPU powered today.”
Garman: AWS automated reasoning mathematically eliminates AI hallucinations in bounded domains
“So by that, by this kind of mechanism, you're, like, systematically able to actually mathematically prove that you got the right answer coming out of this and completely eliminate hallucinations for that area, right? It doesn't mean that we've eliminated hallu…”
Benioff: Klarna remains a major Salesforce customer and still uses Slack
“There are big customer of ours, actually, and they use Slack.”
Kantrowitz: Only 4 of 123 surveyed IT leaders saw major Copilot value
“In October, when the management consultancy Gartner published a survey of 123 IT leaders, only four said co-pilot provided significant value to their companies.”
Kantrowitz: 40% of IT managers delayed Copilot due to security fears
“In the Gartner survey, 40% of IT managers said their company has delayed implementing the tool for at least three months, citing oversharing and security concerns.”
Ives: Current fiscal year will be Apple's strongest iPhone unit year ever
“So regardless of what you want to say about Apple intelligence, if it's going to be rolled out in October, November, January, February, in the next, for this fiscal year, this will, unless some black swan event happens, be the strongest iPhone unit year ever h…”
Kantrowitz: Leaked Projections Show OpenAI Losing $14B in 2026
“And Corey, you report that their loss, excluding stock comp could be fourteen billion in 20, 26.”
Weinberg: OpenAI Will Need to Raise Capital Again by 2026
“My back of the envelope would say 20, 26 at the latest”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's Profitability Pitch to Investors Excludes Billions in Training Costs
“OpenAI is emphasizing to investors a metric of profitability that excludes some major expenses, such as the billions it's spending annually on training its large language models.”
Bosworth: Wrist neural interfaces will eventually work without physical gestures
“Over time, we think we can do that without having any gestures at all. Just having the intention, expressing the intention down your control system.”
Demis Hassabis Spent Years Trying to Separate DeepMind Into a Non-Profit
“Demis tried to break away from Google and also become something like a non-profit. He spent years trying to do that, and spent a lot of money and time trying to do that, and they both failed to create these structures of Responsible governance.”
Roy: Klarna plans to eliminate Salesforce and Workday entirely using in-house AI
“And last night for the attention, he made a big announcement saying that they're going to be cutting their entire sales force and work day budgets because they built in house processes that are simpler, faster,
Using AI, generative AI, good old-fashioned data…”
Kantrowitz: DOJ Indicted Tenet Media Funders Over Covert Russian Money
“What did the DOJ indict the founders or the funders of this channel for, not the YouTubers, but the people putting the money in, that the money was coming from Russia and that Basically, the Russians had had RT, this Russian state-funded network, banned in a b…”
DOJ Claims RT Employees Directly Published Videos to Tenet Media Channel
“There was also a example where RT employees actually got access to publish videos directly to the channel, according to the indictment.”
Hari: Diet and exercise fail sustained weight loss for 85% of people
“This is really important for understanding why the alternative to these drugs, diet and exercise does not produce sustained weight loss for about 85% of people who try it.”
Hari: FDA warns on GLP-1 suicidal ideation while EMA disagrees
“It did not persuade the European Medicines Agency, although the FDA in the United States does have a warning about potential suicidal ideation from these drugs.”
Hari: Bariatric surgery almost quadruples suicide risk
“After bariatric surgery, your suicide risk almost quadruples.”
Hari: Novo Nordisk is running GLP-1 trials in six-year-olds
“Novo Nordisk is currently doing a trial on giving them to six-year-olds.”
Diamandis: Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire
“Elon will be the first trillionaire out there.”
BPO vendor lost over $1B market cap after Klarna's AI tweet
“Well, they were not very happy because we tweeted about it, and a few of them had very severe implications on their market cap, because, like, one of them lost, like, over a billion dollars in market cap on the stock exchange.”
Lessig: Failing to Follow Stated AI Safety Regimes Is Reportable to SEC
“Some agencies like the SEC takes the view that most anything could potentially be the sort of thing you'd have privilege to complain to the SEC about because it could potentially affect the value of the company. And to the extent it's potentially affecting the…”
GPT-5 will enable autonomous agents to execute UI tasks for hours
“Then we're gonna see much more multimodal data, and I think that'll look a lot like the equivalent of supervised fine-tuning, but for a bunch of people recording their screen and doing workflows with their screen, navigating UIs. So I think you'll have agents …”
Google is the only tech giant with successful custom AI chips
“Google is the company that actually has a successful accelerator program for AI chips already with their TPUs, which other companies are trying, but don't yet have to replace, you know, Nvidia GPUs.”
Clark: Anthropic models sometimes exhibit situational awareness during testing
“We've done some self-awareness tests. There have been a few, but we've definitely done this, and yeah, sometimes they have what you call situational awareness. One of the things my colleagues in Interpretability are working on is a really good test for that, b…”
Clark: Anthropic discovered a scaling law in AI model persuasiveness
“We discovered a scaling law where the more big and expensive the models get, the better they get at persuasion and the
The latest model is within statistical, like, era of human level at persuasion.”
Swisher says Apple needs AI partners because it doesn't steal data
“Why they have to partner with someone. They don't collect information the way the others do. They're not information thieves the way the others are.”
Srinivas: Anthropic will release a model better than GPT-4 in 2024
“I actually think they will end up creating a model better than GPT-IV this year. Like, it, it's sort of almost guaranteed to happen. So I believe it's going to happen with CLAW-III.”
Gelsinger: Intel, AMD, and Nvidia will be AI's three big merchant providers
“There's going to be those that build their own, you know, and that's what you see Amazon, Microsoft, Google are doing. They're going to say, hey, I'm going to own this and do this myself. And then there's going to be the general providers in the marketplace, a…”
Sitaraman: OpenAI's board fired Sam Altman for lacking candor, not safety
“The board in their statement as sort of lacking in detail as it was said that they didn't fire Sam for anything but lack of candor, right? Like they didn't fire him because he wasn't AI safety enough.”
Sitaraman: Reports of a Q* letter prompting the OpenAI coup are false
“One thing that I've now heard from a few different people is that the reports about the, a letter being sent to the board about Q star that, that that's not true. And then it didn't precipitate the board's decision.”
Adam Grant became a paid consultant after praising Dalio's management methods
“Adam Grant, very, very famous organizational psychologist, Wharton professor, writes bestselling books. He goes in and he sees Ray Dalio and he witnesses this and he writes that it's based in it. He devotes a whole chapter of his book to it and he writes that …”
Bridgewater threatened journalist Rob Copeland with multiple lawsuits over his reporting
“Bridgewater has threatened me with many, many lawsuits, and I'd like to you know, keep my one bedroom apartment”
Bridgewater's main fund lagged market performance for over a decade after 2010
“Bridgewater's main fund, it just kept doing poorly for years upon years since from the end of two, 20 10, almost uninterrupted for a decade and more. It was just falling so far behind. The markets.”
Ray Dalio called Rob Copeland's bosses claiming he was a bitter reject
“He started attacking me, calling my bosses, saying I was a disaffected person who couldn't make the cut there.”
Kantrowitz: Meta increased metaverse spending despite its 'Year of Efficiency' cost cuts
“That's actually not what happened. They didn't cut spend at all. They, in fact, increased spend on the metaverse. I mean, they are not taking their foot off the gas pedal there, and they've just tried to trim elsewhere within the company.”
Emails Show SBF's Mother Advised Him on Straw Political Donations
“And then there were also emails from his mother, who was a very active political, ah, sort of philanthropist. She ran a fund to try to donate to progressive causes, and she was effectively making, you know, giving advice in these emails about making straw dona…”
SBF Told Ellison Utilitarianism Made Lying and Stealing Acceptable
“There is this moment, right, in the trial where Caroline Ellison mentions that he told her that he was utilitarian, and therefore, if he thinks it makes the world better over time, it's okay to lie and steal.”
Vogt: Cruise AVs cut total crashes by 50% compared to human drivers
“Just from the first million we saw a 50% reduction in, in any kind of crash. And over a 70% reduction in the kinds of crashes that Could lead to injury.”
Ramaswamy: GPT-4 and Claude are a clear step ahead of open source models
“The blunt truth is that the very best of the models out there, whether it's GPT-IV or Claude's biggest model, are a clear step ahead of the pack when it comes to quality. When it comes to reasoning, when it comes to the quality of the text that they produce th…”
Pogue: Stockton Rush pressure-tested a 1/3-scale Titan model to implosion at UW
“Stockton first made a one-third scale model. Nobody talks about this. He took it to the University of Washington, subjected it to pressure, pressure, pressure, pressure, until it imploded to see what the level of pressure was that it could handle.”
Pogue: OceanGate shut off ship Wi-Fi when Titan lost contact
“During the time that the sub was lost on the seafloor, the CBS crew, and actually everybody else, was on the bridge of the ship with the control room people which is primarily Wendy Rush, Stockton's wife, ran the comms, and the various experts and scientists, …”
Pogue: OceanGate took hours to notify Coast Guard about missing Titan
“Why did it take them so long To notify the Coast Guard that the sub had gone missing. I think it was a number of hours.”
Balmain lost laptop, Slack, and Gmail access an hour after layoff email
“Within the email kind of said, yeah, there's good, there's gonna be this huge reduction in, in head count. You will, if you're affected, you'll get an email to your personal email. And if not, you'll get something to your work email. And it was within an hour …”