The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Broderick predicts Bluesky will reach 100 million users by early 2026
“Blue Sky Is now north of twenty-five million users, and it's well on its way to, let's, let, let's say that by this time next year, maybe even sooner, Blue Sky is gonna be around a 100,000, Blue Sky will be around a hundred million users, which I looked up th…”
Ryan Broderick Jan 9, 2025 ▶ 9:06 Why The Costco Guys And Hawk Tuah Took Over The Internet
Assertion Supported
Balmain lost laptop, Slack, and Gmail access an hour after layoff email
“Within the email kind of said, yeah, there's good, there's gonna be this huge reduction in, in head count. You will, if you're affected, you'll get an email to your personal email. And if not, you'll get something to your work email. And it was within an hour …”
Simon Balmain Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 2:24 Elon Musk Laid Me Off At Twitter: Simon Balmain
Prediction Held up
Balmain: Twitter will prioritize paid features and creator monetization cuts
“There will be a large focus on products that directly drive revenue to the company in that the user will need to pay to do X or Y. And then the other one will be a high priority attempt at sort of creative programs, influencer programs where users pay other us…”
Simon Balmain Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 14:00 Elon Musk Laid Me Off At Twitter: Simon Balmain
Assertion Supported
Balmain: Musk denied 75% layoff rumor at Twitter SF office
“He did he did say when he went into the San Francisco office that that number was not accurate and he didn't know where it came from.”
Simon Balmain Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 10:11 Elon Musk Laid Me Off At Twitter: Simon Balmain
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Enjeti predicts Elon Musk will keep Chinese state media labels on Twitter
“And so, on the Chinese thing, I just think it would be so insane for him to remove those labels that he, I don't think that he would do that.”
Saagar Enjeti Nov 6, 2022 ▶ 51:16 Saagar Enjeti and Marshall Kosloff on Midterms, Trump, Economy, and Ukraine
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Major #MeToo Stories Originated from Investigative Reporting, Not Twitter
“And a lot of the big stories in the Me Too era didn't really originate on Twitter. They resulted from reporters actually getting sources to come on record.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jul 21, 2022 ▶ 18:33 Jonathan Haidt: Why Social Media Makes Our Society Stupid
Assertion Supported
Costolo: Twitter stock dropped on MAU misses despite beating revenue and EBITDA
“We could even have beat top line And EBITDA. And grown, you know, bottom line more than we said we were going to grow it. But if we missed an MAU number, the stock would be down.”
Dick Costolo May 27, 2026 ▶ 5:38 Predicting the SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs — With Dick Costolo
Assertion Partly supported
Twitter owes over $1 billion in annual interest, exceeding its historical revenue
“A billion plus in interest payments alone to the financiers every year. You know, that's more revenue than it has been making.”
Simon Balmain Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 13:05 Elon Musk Laid Me Off At Twitter: Simon Balmain
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