The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Goode: Intel Fab 52 matches TSMC 2nm technology but at fraction of scale
“This was the Intel fab 52, which is their most advanced fab. It's a two nanometer fab, and it is on the level of what TSMC does in terms of two nanometer, but of course, at a fraction of the scale of what TSMC does.”
Lauren Goode Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 55:43 Big Technology AI Summit (full): Greg Brockman, Mike Krieger, Aaron Levie & Friends of The Podcast
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Patel: 4x annual compute scaling cannot continue beyond 2028
“If you look at things like how much energy is there in the country, how much how many chips can TSMC produce and what fraction of them are already being used by AI. Even if you look at like raw GDP, like how much money does the world have? How much wealth does…”
Dwarkesh Patel Jun 18, 2025 ▶ 12:27 Dwarkesh Patel: AI Continuous Improvement, Intelligence Explosion, Memory, Frontier Lab Competition
Assertion Supported
Goode: Intel Fab 52 matches TSMC 2nm tech at fractional scale
“This was the Intel fab 52, which is their most advanced fab. It's a two nanometer fab, and it is on the level of what TSMC does in terms of two nanometer, but of course, at a fraction of the scale of what TSMC does.”
Lauren Goode Jul 10, 2026 ▶ 14:19 Can NVIDIA Keep Its Lead? — With Anissa Gardizy, Max Cherney, and Lauren Goode
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gelsinger: Foundry manufacturing is almost as profitable as chip design
“So this is now a very profitable business. You know, almost as profitable as the chip business itself in many respects”
Pat Gelsinger Dec 14, 2023 ▶ 12:33 Intel's CEO Shares His Plan To Win The AI Chip War — With Pat Gelsinger
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