why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
SpaceX leases entire 300MW Colossus One compute capacity to Anthropic
“Anthropic will use all the computing capacity from SpaceX's Colossus One data center in a new agreement with Elon Musk's rockets and artificial intelligence company. SpaceX will supply 300 megawatts of new computing capacity Using more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs…”
Assertion Supported
Morris: SpaceX is targeting a $50B raise at a $1.5T valuation
“Yeah, I mean, we're hearing 50, potentially raising fifty billion at a 1.5 trillion valuation.”
Assertion Supported
Roy: SpaceX floated under 5% of shares in its IPO
“Remember, they brilliantly went out to the market saying it is worth this ungodly valuation and kind of anchoring things there, only releasing less than five percent of actual available shares to the market to actually create that kind of artificial restricted…”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Over 20% of SpaceX IPO allocation went to retail investors
“So more than 20% of the IPO allocation went to retail investors, which means, and this is sort of where the negative side of it is, the risks typically borne out by government and venture capitalists are now being Born out by everyday investors”
Prediction Held up
Costolo: SpaceX could be worth over $2T on day one
“When SpaceX goes public, and I think it'll actually, could you could, it could end up being worth over two trillion dollars on day one, whether that's a fake price or not.”
Prediction Held up
SpaceX will hold its initial public offering before OpenAI and Anthropic
“SpaceX will be the one that IPO is first out of this. I think we could both agree there.”
Prediction Held up
Hoffman: Bankers will likely raise $80 billion for SpaceX's upcoming IPO
“That giant sucking sound you're gonna hear in the markets, you know, this May and June is, is, Bankers running around asking for eighty billion dollars, which, by the way, I think they'll get.”
Prediction Held up
Siegler: xAI and SpaceX merger sounds likely and may be announced this week
“If they really do merge with SpaceX, which it does sound like now, is gonna happen, and may even be announced this week, which is insane how fast that that came together, if it comes together in that way.”
Assertion Supported
SpaceX Generates $18.7 Billion in Revenue but Loses $4 Billion
“And remember, this is a company with an 18.7 billion dollars of revenue total. I mean, Amazon, it surpassed its market cap. Amazon has seven hundred fifty billion dollars in revenue. Like this is a company that's losing four billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: SpaceX Signed $15B Anthropic and $30B Google Data Center Deals
“Then in the run-up to the IPO, the company signed a fifteen billion dollar deal with Anthropic, a thirty billion dollar deal with Google to license out the data centers that it's built for its own AI efforts,”
Prediction Held up
Siegler: SpaceX Will Go Public Within Days
“That a lot could change in between now and the time that they would go out, but SpaceX is going to go public, you know, this week, the end of this week or early next. And so or maybe the 11th, you know, at the latest or whatnot.”
Assertion Supported
Roy: SpaceX S-1 shows Anthropic committed to $1.25B monthly spend
“In the SpaceX S one document, they talk about how Anthropic has agreed. And this is one of the big, like revenue boosters for them. To spend 1.25 billion dollars per month through May 2029. But they explicitly say in May and June, 2026, it is at a reduced fee.”
Assertion Supported
Roy: SpaceX is targeting a $40B to $80B IPO raise
“Again, like SpaceX is targeting a raise between 40 and eighty billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
SpaceX Raised Over $85 Billion in Largest IPO Ever
“Largest IPO ever, raising more than eighty-five billion dollars at a 1.77 trillion dollar valuation.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: SpaceX lost $4.28B on $4.69B Q1 revenue
“SpaceX had a net loss. 4.28 billion on revenue of 4.69 billion for the first quarter compared with a net loss of five hundred twenty eight million on revenue of about four billion a year earlier.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Elon Musk and SpaceX have filed for an IPO
“Elon Musk and co have filed for that IPO.”
Assertion Supported
Roy: SpaceX IPO Launched with Only a 4.3% Public Float
“So much of how this is orchestrated, it's only a 4.3% float.”