why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Suhail Doshi: Video AI models mimic training data rather than understanding real physics
“What's really doing is it's representing
The physics it understands in the videos it's being trained on, which could be incorrect physics. It's really what it understands what it's being trained on is kind of my main, the main thrust of my point. And that to a…”
Disclosure
Brockman: OpenAI Continues Sora Research Program Specifically for Robotics Applications
“We are actually continuing the SOAR research program in the context of robotics, right, which I think is very clearly going to be a transformative application, which is still a little bit in the research phase”
Disclosure
Brockman: Sora Video Architecture Is a Separate Tech Branch From GPT
“The Sora models, which are incredible models, by the way, are a different branch of the tech tree than the core Reasoning GPT series. They're just built in a very different way, and to some extent we're really saying that pursuing both branches is very hard fo…”
Assertion Contradicted
Moore: Sora Retains 3 Million Daily Active Users
“So they still have Three million DAOs, and it's actually, you know, slightly climbing over time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI built the Sora Android app in under a month using Codex
“We built the Sora Android app using Codex. And They did it in like less than a month. They used a huge amount. One of the nice things about working at OpenAI is you don't get any limits on Codex. They used a huge amount of tokens, but they were able to do what…”
Opinion
Roy: OpenAI Opt-Out Policy for Sora Copyright Infringement Is 'Nuts'
“He does say, we'll work with rights holders to block characters from Sora at their request and respond to takedown requests. I think this is nuts and a big deal because they are basically saying, like, it's out there. And you're going to have to come to us to …”
Opinion
Roy: AI video generation models like OpenAI's Sora are nowhere near interesting
“Video generation is the one area that I do think we are severely, we're not even close to anything interesting, and we've been promised things that are interesting, i.e. Sora but we're very, very far away.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Doshi: In a year, OpenAI's Sora will look 'not even close'
“My feeling is my bet to people, you know, sort of listening is that in a year we will think, you know, we'll think something like Sora was not even close.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Apptopia Data Shows OpenAI's Sora Daily Downloads Dropped to 150,000
“So when Sora came out, it was doing around 240,000 downloads. Looks like a day. Bumped up to around 400,000 or so per day. It has actually dropped significantly, and this won't come as a surprise to you. It looks like it's like around maybe a 150,000 downloads…”
Assertion Supported
Disney Announces $1 Billion OpenAI Investment and Sora Licensing Deal
“Disney on Thursday announced a blockbuster deal with OpenAI to invest one billion dollars. For an equity stake in the Chachapi Teammaker. As part of the deal, OpenAI will license more than 200 characters from Disney, so users can create AI-generated videos in …”
Insight
Roy: AI compute subsidies dwarf the 2010s VC-subsidized Uber era
“Us as consumers are benefiting right now because no one actually has to pay for it on the other end. And this kind of makes the like, 20 tens VC subsidized Uber rides look like, you know a quaint memory where we're just able to get all this benefit as computer…”
Insight
Personalized cameos are the key differentiator for AI video apps
“Whereas with OpenAI's product, it's immediately become really compelling because people can see themselves in it. They can see other people they know. And that seems to be a really key detail here that is a big differentiator.”
Opinion
Developing AI Reasoning Capabilities Matters More Than Voice or Video Models
“If I was going to look at those three things, like the voice interface, Sora, and reasoning capabilities, Hands down, the bigger deal is reasoning capabilities.”
Assertion Supported
Sora reached one million downloads faster than ChatGPT
“Sora spent 20 days, which is not insignificant. At the top of the US App Store and reached one million downloads faster than ChatGPT.”
Assertion Supported
Siegler: OpenAI Cut Sora Video Creation Limit From 100 to 30
“And, you know, right now they're rate limiting the creation of Sora videos. They just jumped it down. I saw recently from a hundred in 24 hours. Cause I keep hitting it to now it's 30.”
Assertion Supported
Sora reached number one on the Apple App Store
“It's the number one app on the App Store.”