The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Zuckerberg Offered $32B for Safe Superintelligence and Was Rejected
“Zuckerberg tried to spend thirty two billion on Ilya Suskever's AI start, startup, safe super intelligence. Suskever ultimately turned Meta down.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 35:57 OpenAI and Microsoft Tension Boils, Amazon’s Job Automation, Zuck’s Spending Spree
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Albergati: Major AI Breakthroughs Have Historically Never Occurred in Secret
“And I just, you haven't seen in the history of AI development, big breakthroughs happen in secret. These usually, you know, these papers come out, they ping pong around everybody, you know, it cross pollinates and then people come up with ideas around the same…”
Reed Albergotti Aug 3, 2026 ▶ 31:19 Leopold Blows Up, OpenAI Drastically Cuts Prices, Microsoft’s Best Day
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Nvidia Invested $5B Into Ilya Sutskever's Safe Superintelligence
“And NVIDIA decided to make a big strategic investment in them, five billion dollars for a company that doesn't have a product.”
Alex Kantrowitz Aug 3, 2026 ▶ 30:18 Leopold Blows Up, OpenAI Drastically Cuts Prices, Microsoft’s Best Day
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Kantrowitz: Multi-billion funding rounds for ex-OpenAI talent will continue
“Definitely not. I mean, if you think about, just think about where AI is today compared to where it was then. I think we could both agree that the AI, the promise of AI is more real now than it was.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jan 19, 2026 ▶ 34:24 Is Google's Gemini Winning?, Thinking Machines Drama, Claude Cowork’s Potential
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: Apple will not acquire Safe Superintelligence for tens of billions
“I don't think that they're going to do a deal. That's like, you know, the thirty billion dollar, 3040, fifty billion dollars that it would take to buy safe, super intelligence just to do that.”
M.G. Siegler Jan 13, 2026 ▶ 48:49 AI’s Steve Jobs?, Big Tech AI Chaos, 2026 Crystal Ball
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Ilya Sutskever raised billions without releasing a product
“Well, Ilya obviously has raised billions without releasing a product.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 21:33 Sam Altman’s Gentle Singularity, Zuck’s AI Power Play, Burning Of The Waymos
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