why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: OpenAI's Orion training run failed to reach GPT-5 performance levels
“There were hopes that Orion could be used for GPT-V but its improvement was, like, not enough to be, like, really a GPT-V. Furthermore, it was trained on the classical method, which is, like which is a ton of pre-training, and then some reinforcement learning …”
Disclosure
Bosworth: Meta shelved Orion consumer launch due to unviable pricing
“Even though we couldn't get the price to be one that we felt comfortable launching as a consumer product, we did intent when we designed it and developed it was a consumer design and intention.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Newton: Meta Orion consumer glasses are years away and will be downgraded
“So my understanding is that the Orion headset is, like, multiple years out, and that when it arrives, it won't actually even be as good as the glasses that we tried on this year, because in order to make the cost work, they're just gonna have to, like, rip out…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bosworth: Meta's Orion Codec Avatars Fooled Video Call Recipients
“And then conversely, what they would see is your codec avatar. And we've really fooled some people with the codec avatars. When they've seen the codec avatar call in they don't realize it's a codec avatar. They think it's a real, an image.”
Disclosure
Himel: Meta began Orion AR development immediately following the Oculus acquisition
“At the time when we acquired Oculus, part of the rationale was there was a research division led by Michael Abrash that was looking at augmented reality technologies. Augmented reality translates into glasses and wearables. And right out of the gate, we starte…”