The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 228 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Roy: OpenAI will generate $13B revenue and lose $20B in 2025
“Their revenue is going to be thirteen billion this year, and I think it's twenty billion they're losing this year.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is projected to lose $120B through 2029
“OpenAI is expected to lose a hundred twenty billion between now and 2029.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI projected to lose over $100B between 2025 and 2029
“So OpenAI is expected to bring in around thirteen billion in sales this year. And I'm looking at these numbers. I mean, and by the way, it's going to lose money, right? We think the data is, or the expectations is that between now and 20, 29, it's supposed to …”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI signed a $300 billion cloud contract with Oracle
“OpenAI signed a contract with Oracle to purchase 300 Billion dollars in computing power over roughly five years, a massive commitment that far outstrips the startup's current revenue.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI reaches $12B annualized revenue and 700M ChatGPT weekly users
“OpenAI hits twelve billion in annualized revenue, breaks seven hundred million ChatGPT weekly active users. This is from Bloomberg. They roughly doubled their revenue in the first seven months of the year, reaching twelve billion in annualized revenue says Ope…”
Siegler: Microsoft's OpenAI contract restricts it from developing AGI independently
“Part of their original contract with, you know, the quote-unquote clause in it around AGI Was that Microsoft said that they would not you know, themselves go to work on, go after AGI and working on that.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and SoftBank's Stargate has not closed a single data center deal
“Six months after Japanese billionaire Masayoshi stood shoulder to shoulder With Sam Altman and President Trump to announce the Stargate project, the newly formed company charged with making it happen has yet to complete a single deal for a data center.”
Morris: OpenAI will not declare GPT-5 as AGI
“I hate to make bold predictions, especially in tech, because you can often be spectacularly wrong, but I do not think they're going to say GPT-V is anything approaching AGI, however you choose to define it.”
Morris: OpenAI redefined Stargate to include any rented data center
“Part of the reason they're able to claim Stargate is off the ground is because they changed the definition of it. Previously, it had to involve open AI, Oracle, the data center provider, SoftBank, the financier and MGX, which is a huge New sovereign wealth or …”
OpenAI is directly undercutting Microsoft's enterprise subscription deals
“OpenAI has been undercutting Microsoft in deals, selling their models, and undercutting their enterprise subscription deals.”
OpenAI must convert to for-profit by year-end to keep SoftBank funding
“By the end of the year, OpenAI must convert to a for-profit entity, or SoftBank does not have to give them more than twenty billion dollars total.”
Kantrowitz: MIT Study Found ChatGPT Users Showed Lowest Brain Engagement
“The study divided 54 subjects, 18 to thirty-nine-year-olds,
From the Boston area into three groups and asked them to write several SAT essays using OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google search engine, and nothing at all.
Researchers used an EEG.
I guess that's, yeah,
it's …”
Kantrowitz: Judge orders OpenAI to preserve ChatGPT chats for NYT lawsuit
“The New York Times is telling OpenAI, has gotten a judge to rule in favor of this position, that OpenAI has to preserve its chats, because people who are using OpenAI's ChatGPT to, ah, go around the New York Times paywall, ah, may delete those chats. And there…”
OpenAI plans to release its first open-weight reasoning model since GPT-2
“OpenAI is planning to release an open weight language model in the coming months. This is from Sam Altman. We are excited to release a powerful new open weight language model. With reasoning in the next coming months, we want to talk to developers about how to…”
OpenAI Finalizes $40B Funding Round at $300B Valuation
“OpenAI has finalized forty billion dollars in funding at a 300 Billion dollar valuation. That is according to Bloomberg.”
Kantrowitz: Big Tech will not pull back AI CapEx, spending over $300B
“The capex pullback. I don't see it happening. We have big tech that's going to spend three hundred billion on capex this year plus. Much of that is going to AI, open AI, there's rumors now that, or reports, really, that they're about to raise forty billion dol…”
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Wang: China's DeepSeek produced the first replication of OpenAI's o1 model
“OpenAI released O-one and released the O-one preview a number of months ago... Yeah, this is OpenAI's advanced reasoning model, which is great at sort of scientific reasoning and mathematical reasoning and reasoning and code, et cetera. And the very first repl…”
Kantrowitz: Leaked Projections Show OpenAI Losing $14B in 2026
“And Corey, you report that their loss, excluding stock comp could be fourteen billion in 20, 26.”
Weinberg: OpenAI Will Need to Raise Capital Again by 2026
“My back of the envelope would say 20, 26 at the latest”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's Profitability Pitch to Investors Excludes Billions in Training Costs
“OpenAI is emphasizing to investors a metric of profitability that excludes some major expenses, such as the billions it's spending annually on training its large language models.”
Lessig: Failing to Follow Stated AI Safety Regimes Is Reportable to SEC
“Some agencies like the SEC takes the view that most anything could potentially be the sort of thing you'd have privilege to complain to the SEC about because it could potentially affect the value of the company. And to the extent it's potentially affecting the…”
GPT-5 will enable autonomous agents to execute UI tasks for hours
“Then we're gonna see much more multimodal data, and I think that'll look a lot like the equivalent of supervised fine-tuning, but for a bunch of people recording their screen and doing workflows with their screen, navigating UIs. So I think you'll have agents …”
Sitaraman: Reports of a Q* letter prompting the OpenAI coup are false
“One thing that I've now heard from a few different people is that the reports about the, a letter being sent to the board about Q star that, that that's not true. And then it didn't precipitate the board's decision.”
Ramaswamy: GPT-4 and Claude are a clear step ahead of open source models
“The blunt truth is that the very best of the models out there, whether it's GPT-IV or Claude's biggest model, are a clear step ahead of the pack when it comes to quality. When it comes to reasoning, when it comes to the quality of the text that they produce th…”
Kantrowitz: Apple sent document preservation letters to dozens of OpenAI employees
“So the latest is that Apple has now sent dozens of OpenAI employees legal letters asking them to preserve their documents, and Apple has also said that this, they only found the tip of the iceberg.”
Brockman: Doctors used OpenAI's o3 to diagnose a 20-year mysterious ailment
“Like, for example, today we announced I we have in peer reviewed literature, people, doctors who are using O three. Remember O three? It was like forever ago now. Right. It was like one of our earliest reasoning models using that to find diagnoses for People w…”
OpenAI GPT-5.6 Matches Anthropic Mythos on Exploit Bench at Double Efficiency
“So they ran GPT, 5.6 through a test called exploit bench and the cap, the capabilities were basically on par with mythos. And this is obviously a cybersecurity test, but mythos is much less token efficient. So mythos do something like 300,000 tokens for the fo…”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT Reached One Billion Active Users
“ChatGPT, according to third parties, has recently hit one billion active users.”
Brockman: Doctors use OpenAI's o3 model to diagnose long-unsolved medical cases
“Today we announced I we have in peer-reviewed literature people, doctors who are using O. Three. Remember O. Three? I was like forever ago now, right? It was like one of our earliest reasoning models using that to find diagnoses for People who I had no, no ans…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Will Cut Prices to Leverage Infrastructure Scale Against Anthropic
“I think they will. I mean, I think that there's, if you think about it strategically, right? Anthropic has been winning. It's also, it's like part of this is about lifetime value, right? Anthropic has been winning over a lot of these enterprise customers with …”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI reported a -122% adjusted operating margin in Q1
“OpenAI told investors that its adjusted operating income margin was -122% in the first quarter. That means for every dollar of revenue the company generated, it lost one dollar and 22 cents, even after excluding some large items such as stock based compensatio…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft has secured OpenAI IP rights through 2032
“And basically Microsoft has access to OpenAI's IP till 2032, and that is the state of the partnership today.”
Siegler: OpenAI owes Microsoft rev share even on AWS and Google
“While Microsoft no longer has to pay revenue share back to open AI still has to pay it to Microsoft and they have to pay it even when they're using AWS or potentially Google in the future.”
Siegler: OpenAI products must ship first on Azure under deal terms
“Microsoft remains open as primary cloud partner. And open AI products will ship first on Azure, unless Microsoft cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Models Are Coming to Google Cloud Platform Soon
“And I anticipate, and you know, given my conversations that I've had with Thomas Curry and the head of Google cloud platform, that it will come to Google fairly soon as well. He wants it there.”
Alex Kantrowitz predicts Elon Musk will fail to oust OpenAI leaders
“Now, I know Musk is trying to get Musk and Sam Altman, sorry, he's trying to get Sam Altman and Greg Brockman removed from the top of opening. I don't think that's going to happen.”
Brockman: OpenAI cuts intelligence prices tenfold to hundredfold year-over-year
“We have dropped prices on the same level of intelligence year over year, sometimes by literally a factor of a hundred, right? It's like at least in order of magnitude year over year, sometimes literally a hundred.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is developing a coding, ChatGPT, and browser super app
“They're making this super app, which is going to combine coding and chat CPT and a browser.”
OpenAI plans desktop superapp unifying ChatGPT, Codex, and browser
“OpenAI is planning to unify its ChatGPT app, coding platform codex, and browser into a desktop super app, a step to simplify the user experience and continue with efforts to focus on engineering and business customers.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI burned $8B in 2025 and expects $57B burn in 2027
“Last year, the company burned eight billion dollars in cash. However, the company expects to burn twenty five billion this year and fifty seven billion next year. About thirty billion more than the total previously predicted.”
Huang says Nvidia's investment in OpenAI might be its last
“Jensen Wong said the thirty billion dollars that he and NVIDIA invested in OpenAI might be the last. Why? Is it because he doesn't trust Sam Altman, or is it because, you know, he doesn't believe in the technology? No. He says the reason for that is because th…”
Siegler: Amazon is investing $50B in OpenAI across two tranches
“Fifty billion dollars. Yes. It's over like two tranches. It sounds like, you know, 15 and then 35, but still fifty billion dollars that, that Amazon is investing”
OpenAI expands its AWS agreement by $100 billion over eight years
“OpenAI said it's expanding its existing thirty-eight billion dollar agreement with Amazon Web Services by one hundred billion over the next year, eight years.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is charging a $60 CPM for conversational advertising
“One of the interesting things about open AI is advertising. Now they've taken a lot of flack for it, maybe with good reason, but one of the interesting things about it is it's so high touch and that's why they're charging like a 60 dollars CPM, which is insane…”
Adler: Daniel Kokotajlo forfeited 80% of net worth to criticize OpenAI
“Until Daniel Cocotelo who people might know from leading AI, 2027, I think very, very courageously forwent this agreement and forfeited something like 80% of his family's net worth and said, Sorry, I'm just not waiving my right to criticize open AI.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Disbanded Its Mission Alignment Team and Reassigned Seven Staffers
“OpenAI disbanded its mission alignment team in recent weeks and transferred its seven employees to other teams. The mission alignment team was created in twenty-twenty-four to promote the company's stated mission to ensure that artificial general intelligence …”
Adler: Apollo Research found OpenAI's new model sandbagged safety evaluations
“Apollo research, which is one of the leaders in this space wrote in their review of the new open AI model that the model would sandbag and take actions like this without having been given a direct goal like that. It wasn't told directly to go after it.”