why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Demis Hassabis acknowledges AI progress is slowing and taking longer
“Even Demis, you know, when you talk to him, he noted that he doesn't necessarily believe in, in, you know, a wall being hit, but he did acknowledge that things are slowing and it'll just take longer to get more, you know, juice out of the squeeze as it were.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Demis Hassabis has stepped down as Google DeepMind CEO
“Demis Hassabis stepped down as the CEO of Google DeepMind.”
Assertion Supported
Demis Hassabis Steps Down as Google DeepMind CEO in Leadership Shakeup
“Demis Asabas is stepping down as chief executive for Google DeepMind to become chairman and chief scientist. Google CEO Sundar Pichai said in a post on X. Google DeepMind technology chief Koray Kavukcholu is taking on responsibility for all AI model developmen…”
Assertion Supported
Ibrahim: DeepMind's GNoME expanded known stable crystals from 40,000 to 400,000+
“The alpha genome, the alpha gnome, the one that you've just mentioned, our material science, was really exciting because we basically went from 40,000 known stable crystals to 400,000 plus. That are now being tested with research, in research and in labs.”
Assertion Supported
Hassabis: Test-time compute elevated AlphaZero from master level to superhuman
“We had versions of AlphaGo and AlphaZero with the thinking turned off, so it was just the model telling you its first idea. And, you know, it's not bad, it's maybe like master level, something like that, but then if you turn the thinking on, it's way beyond wo…”
Assertion Contradicted
Brin: Inference-time compute offsets 5,000x in training compute
“What they did with AlphaGo and AlphaZero, as you mentioned it showed, as I recall, something you would take 5000 times as much training to match what you were able to do with still a lot of training and the inference time compute that you were doing with Go.”
Assertion Supported
DeepMind math AI achieves Olympiad silver medals despite making basic errors
“You have systems some systems that we work on, like alpha proof, alpha geometry, that are getting, you know, silver medals in maths olympiads, which is fantastic, but on the other hand, Some of our systems, those same systems are still making some fairly basic…”
Assertion Partly supported
Adler: Hassabis and Amodei would slow AI pace if they were sole players
“And so at Davos a few weeks ago, I think both Demis and Dario said some variation of, yeah, like if we were the only two groups building this technology, We would find a way to get together and figure out how to slow down this frantic pace. Like it's going too…”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: DeepMind and Yale Cancer AI Model Validated in Living Cells
“The DeepMind researchers in collaboration with Yale released a twenty seven billion parameter foundational model for single cell analysis. I'm not even going to try to name it. It's called C to S scale in shorthand. It's built on Google's open source gamma fam…”
Assertion Supported
Murdock: DeepMind's MuZero algorithm dramatically reduces YouTube streaming bandwidth
“We were able to take an algorithm developed for games. That was a master in chess and use that to dramatically reduce the bandwidth requirement to stream YouTube videos.”
Assertion Supported
Murdock: DeepMind mapped all 200M known proteins using AlphaFold
“We've used AlphaFold now to map all two hundred million proteins known to science, or two hundred million proteins known to science, and we've made that available to everyone.”
Assertion Partly supported
Manyika: 3.5 Million Researchers Across 190 Countries Access AlphaFold
“You now have three and a half million researchers accessing it in over a 190 countries.”
Assertion Supported
Ibrahim: Northern Ireland AI pilot saved teachers 10 hours weekly
“What they found was on average they were sending 10
Saving 10 hours per week per teacher, and their post-it notes were how they were using their time, which was, I'm getting time back with my family. I can now do lesson plans for different learners of differen…”
Assertion Supported
Hassabis: Three million researchers worldwide use AlphaFold
“And it's been incredibly gratifying to see, you know, three million researchers around the world use it in their important research.”
Assertion Supported
Murdock: DeepMind's Flamingo generates search metadata across YouTube Shorts videos
“We discovered Flamingo was also able to look at that video for you, essentially watch all the videos for you and add data, metadata to those videos, such that when you're searching for those videos, it's much easier, much, much easier to find the videos that y…”
Assertion Supported
DeepMind: Human Go players improved performance using AlphaGo
“What we discovered, however, was that once we then made AlphaGo more generally available, the humans actually used AlphaGo to improve their performance.”