The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 13 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses
“Over the next year, you will see Meta bring in other AI models. You will see them partner with Google. You might see them partner with OpenAI.”
Kantrowitz: Regulators will likely break up Google and potentially Meta
“The vibe here is that we're going to see breakups very likely of Google and potentially of Facebook.”
Roy: Google Gemini will monetize via ads, but Anthropic will avoid them
“At least anthropic is not, I mean, I don't think they're going in that direction at all. Google and Gemini, Obviously, 100% will”
Manyika: Google aims to conduct AI training runs in space by 2027
“So the first milestone is we're hoping that in 20, 27 will have done a couple training runs in space.”
Prince: Global regulators will force Google to split its web crawler
“I am also a hundred percent certain that regulators are paying a ton of attention to this. And that around the world, you will see them force Google to split their crawler out into announcing exactly what it is doing.”
Link: Amazon will deliver ~20% 5-year CAGR, beating Meta and Google
“And I think you're going to see a CAGR of about 20% for the next five years at this company versus Meta at 13% and versus Google at 12.8%.”
Ives: Meta and Google will eventually integrate into Apple Intelligence
“Apple basically said, we now will be the castle for AI. And if you want access to it, you got to come through Apple intelligence, clearly open AI. I eventually think Meta Google are going to have to make the same move.”
Ives: Google antitrust fight will end in tweaks, not breakups
“This is going to be fought out in court for many years, and I think it will be settlements and business model tweaks, not massive changes.”
Siegler: Google May Skip Gemini 3.5 Pro to Jump Directly to Gemini 4
“It sort of feels like they're going to go try to jump right to four now. And if they do that, four had better be really good. Otherwise they're going to have a real narrative problem.”
Roy: Google will put ads in Gemini; Anthropic will not
“At least anthropic is not. I mean, I don't think they're going in that direction at all. Google and Gemini. Obviously, 100% will.”
Kantrowitz: Google will ship its AI smart glasses in 2026
“I think the news is that it's going to ship this year. Google's AI glasses.”
Kantrowitz: Google will inevitably catch up to Anthropic and OpenAI frontier models
“Google has shown it can catch up in terms of capabilities of models. It will inevitably catch up again to whatever Fable is and GPT-Five.”
Kantrowitz: Hundreds of Google Search engineers were reassigned to Google DeepMind
“Just one example I got from the story, hundreds of engineers from search, which is the most important product. At Google, which is responsible for more than half the revenue. Hundreds of engineers went from search to Google DeepMind just to, you know, give you…”