The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 1 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Siegler: Google May Skip Gemini 3.5 Pro to Jump Directly to Gemini 4
“It sort of feels like they're going to go try to jump right to four now. And if they do that, four had better be really good. Otherwise they're going to have a real narrative problem.”
M.G. Siegler Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 49:07 Demis Steps Down, Apple’s Memory Problem, Microsoft’s Clever Trick
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