The Ledger
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why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hubinger: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT were willing to blackmail a CEO
“And we found that you know, a lot of models, you know Claude models, Gemini models, ChachiPT models would all be willing to take this blackmail action in at least some situations which is kind of concerning you know, and does show that they're acting on this s…”
Siegler: Tying Gemini's crawler to Search gives Google massive content negotiation leverage
“Google's crawler is also tied to Google search. And so if you're turning off the crawler for Gemini you're potentially turning off Google search, which basically no one is willing to do at this point. And gives Google, you know, a huge leverage point. In, in a…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Averaged 905M WAU, Missing 1B Year-End Target
“OpenAI's weekly active users for the quarter averaged about nine hundred five million users. Although the company hit about nine hundred twenty million weekly active users in February, the lower average figure for the quarter implies that usage during the rest…”
Alex Kantrowitz cites Apptopia data showing consumer AI app growth declining
“Daily active user growth across all AI, AI apps. So that includes perplexity and Claude and the Gemini's of the world. ChatGPT, growth is not just tailing off, it's down. So you can see that, you know, while like the space is growing overall the growth is, is …”
Roy: OpenAI will hit 1B users in 2026 but lose clear leadership
“I think a billion users. I don't think I think they're not the leader. I think Gemini's Google definitely starts to catch up. I think like everyone is biting off at different parts of the open AI. Empire, I guess if we call it that, but I don't think there's a…”
Prince: Google uses a single crawler for search, ads, and Gemini
“Google's crawler does five different things, at least. One is it checks if you have an ad on a page. It makes sure that if you're putting an ad for Procter & Gamble, Procter & Gamble product up, it's not against a pornographic site or something like that. So i…”
Kantrowitz: Gemini and Claude were trained on TPUs and Trainium, not NVIDIA
“If you look at the TPU, which is the accelerator that Google has been, has put out and Tranium, which is Amazon's version of it you know, two of the top three models in the world, Claude and Gemini were trained on it”
ChatGPT leads Gemini web traffic by 3x and Claude by 30x
“If you look at the gap between them and the number two Gemini on web, it's about still two and a half, three X. The gap between them and something like a Claude is closer to, like, 30 X. So even though a lot of these other apps are getting more attention, Chat…”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT Mobile Market Share Fell to 45.3% in January 2026
“OpenAI's, ChatGPT's market share has dropped from 69% in January, this is according to Apptopia, from 69% in January, twenty-twenty-five to 45.3% in January, 26. Now it is growing, but in that same time, ah, let's see, Gemini has gone from 14.7% chatbot market…”
Hassabis: Google Has No Immediate Plans for Ads in Gemini
“He said we have no plan at no plans at the moment to do ads. If you're talking about the Gemini app specifically, I think we're obviously going to watch very carefully the outcome of what ChatGPT is saying they're going to do. I think that has to be handled ve…”
Clark: US and UK AI Safety Institutes Are Testing Frontier AI Systems
“The US and UK are not, don't have regulatory powers. Will they be third parties that test out systems like Claude or ChatGPT or Gemini for national security risks and hold companies accountable to them? Yes. Like I'm in discussion with them today.”
Kantrowitz: Google's Gemini is available to military personnel on genai.mil
“There's a website, genai.mil, that's available to the people in the military here, and interestingly, Google, ah, is in there. Gemini's in there.”
Kantrowitz: Gemini chatbot web visits surged 647% while OpenAI grew 50%
“It's grown in 50% web visits January, 20, 25 to January, 20, 26. But the lead is shrinking and Google has, for instance, grown its web visits by not 50% like open AI, but 647%. In the same time period.”
Ten Million New Users Adopted Google Gemini for Image Capabilities
“Apparently ten million people who are new to Gemini use the app to use it for images.”
Kantrowitz: Google disclosed Gemini has 350 million monthly active users
“We got the first disclosure of user numbers of Gemini. So, third, three hundred fifty million monthly active users. It's the first disclosure of the metric.”
Moore: Google has four standalone products on a16z's top AI list
“Like Google has four standalone products on our list, which if you had told me that 24 months ago when like Bard came out, the early version of Gemini, I would not have believed you.”
Manyika: Google releases new Gemini model generations every five to six months
“We now kind of on the cycle that Gemini models where every five, six months, there's the latest generation.”
Roy: Google Gemini is leveraging 1.8 quadrillion tokens
“And again, like, I think what I saw was at Google. It was like 1.8 quadrillion tokens now being leveraged by Gemini.”
Kantrowitz: SimilarWeb Data Shows Gemini at 10.9M and DeepSeek at 16.5M Daily Visits
“Google's Gemini web traffic grew to 10.9 million average daily visits worldwide in March. That's up seven, four, 7.4% month over month, while daily visits to Copilot, that's Microsoft's bot, Increased to 2.4 million, up 2.1% from February. SimilarWeb also says…”
Levie: AI context windows improved 500x in 18 months
“And at the start of ChatGPT in let's call it November of twenty-twenty-two, the context window was somewhere on the order of about 4000 tokens. Just yesterday Sundar announced two million tokens on the latest Gemini model. So when you think about it there's li…”