why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
LeCun: Unclear whether Google's investment in DeepMind has been worth it
“The economic return after 10 years or so, or nine years that Google has gotten from DeepMind, you know, is not clear. It's worth their investment.”
Insight
LeCun: Startups absolutely cannot do fundamental research due to funding
“You can't, absolutely cannot do research in a startup. You just can't because you just don't have the funds, right?”
Assertion Supported
Demis Hassabis rejected higher Facebook offer because Mark Zuckerberg misunderstood AI's potential
“Facebook offered more money, but I wanted somebody who really understood why AI would be bigger than all those things. And then he sold to Google.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
LeCun: Novel AI architectures will reach practical scale in 3 to 5 years
“The question is, you know, when is this going to go from interesting research papers demonstrating a new capability with a new architecture to, you know, architectures at scale that You know, are practical for a lot of applications and can find solutions to ne…”
Assertion Supported
Demis Hassabis Spent Years Trying to Separate DeepMind Into a Non-Profit
“Demis tried to break away from Google and also become something like a non-profit. He spent years trying to do that, and spent a lot of money and time trying to do that, and they both failed to create these structures of Responsible governance.”
Assertion Partly supported
Morris: Suleyman has 6,000-7,000 Microsoft reports, poached 23 from DeepMind
“I think Mustafa Suleiman now has six or 7000 people reporting to him. And just this week, I reported that they'd poached another 23 from DeepMind.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's Windsurf acquisition collapses as Google hires founders to DeepMind
“OpenAI's deal to buy Windsurf is off, and Google will instead hire the Windsurf CEO, Varun Mohan, co-founder Douglas Chen, and some of Windsurf's R&D employees from the company to join DeepMind. Google and Windsurf announced Friday.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google Cloud sales reps receive no extra pay for selling DeepMind models
“Our field is not compensated any differently. Our partner ecosystem is able to use all the models in the platform, and most importantly, we have very large Anthropic customers running on GCP.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
DeepMind researchers observed AI models resisting revealing their training data
“Well, look, we, we've seen similar types of things where it's trying to resist sort of revealing its, some of its training.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Demis Hassabis Set Winning a Nobel Prize as a Goal for DeepMind
“And Demis also has an incredible almost obsession with winning a Nobel prize. This is what I've heard from people who worked with him. That was kind of the goals that he put for the company.”
Assertion Contradicted
Olson: Hassabis Was First to Launch an AGI-Focused Company in 2010
“Demis did it first. He was actually the first kind of put his neck on the line as a among the scientific community to do something that was really a fringe theory back in the, in 2010 and started a company that actually wanted to build human level AI.”
Opinion
OpenAI likely leads frontier AI competitors in revenue by a wide margin
“It doesn't seem like there's a strong leader at the moment. I think in terms of revenue, probably open AI is leading by a lot.”
Assertion Supported
Albergati: Meta Tried to Acquire DeepMind Before Google Did
“Meta, you know, they were so early on AI, they tried to acquire DeepMind, you know, before Google did and then sort of just lost focus on it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kurian: Google Cloud releases DeepMind models to developers within hours
“In fact, we're staging models out to the developer ecosystem within a matter of a few hours after they're finally built.”