why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Shevelenko: Codex and proprietary AI assistants will never run rival models
“So the one thing that Codex is never going to be able to support is running Gemini models. You know, they will always be in the GPT family. Same thing for, you know, Claude, like they're not gonna, you know, have GPT models. Gemini is not gonna have Grok model…”
Opinion
OpenAI's Codex enterprise business remains significantly smaller than Anthropic's Claude Code
“It seems like it's a fast growing business codex for them, but it's still not nearly, you know, as big as cloud code is.”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI plans desktop superapp unifying ChatGPT, Codex, and browser
“OpenAI is planning to unify its ChatGPT app, coding platform codex, and browser into a desktop super app, a step to simplify the user experience and continue with efforts to focus on engineering and business customers.”
Insight
Levie: Autonomous task delegation is now the dominant AI coding paradigm
“You're not in an IDE. You're not coding alongside it. You're just setting off a task, and it's going to go and do a bunch of work for you. And now, obviously, it's very clear that that's the dominant paradigm that we're going to be in. Codex has proven it. You…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI built the Sora Android app in under a month using Codex
“We built the Sora Android app using Codex. And They did it in like less than a month. They used a huge amount. One of the nice things about working at OpenAI is you don't get any limits on Codex. They used a huge amount of tokens, but they were able to do what…”
Assertion Partly supported
Roy: Ramp data shows Codex closing gap with Claude Code
“Well, certainly there's been like ramp data, but around Codex starting to close the gap again with Claude Code.”
Insight
Siegler: AI Coding Tools Require Invisible Abstraction to Reach the Masses
“Most people, even though it's easy, most people won't have a use case for sort of coding unless you move coding into like the more nebulous, like recipe idea, you know, sort of like Apple shortcuts or something where it's like, it is coding, but it's not reall…”
Opinion
Brockman: AI Models Now Have Raw Intelligence to Manage Spreadsheets and Presentations
“There's so much just very mechanical skill associated with Excel spreadsheets, with presentations, and if the AI has the context, it has the raw intelligence now to be able to do these things at a great level. So if we can just make it more accessible, suddenl…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taylor outlines OpenAI's three business pillars: ChatGPT, APIs, and agents
“So if you look at OpenAI's business model kind of three pillars the first is ChatGPT monetize through subscriptions today, and this is where Fiji announced sort of the ads principles where, where the plans are to introduce some monetization component to that. …”
Disclosure
Brockman: Non-technical OpenAI staff use Codex as general-purpose agents
“You can hook up, like I hook up my codecs to Slack, to my Gmail, to my calendar, and there are many people within OpenAI, non-technical users, you know, it's got code in the name, but it's not really about code. It's really about having this general purpose to…”
Disclosure
Brockman: OpenAI employees barely use email, preferring Slack and Codex
“Within OpenAI, we basically have the same level of penetration now and usage of slack. Right. It's like everyone in opening eyes like an entirely slack based company. We do not use email for the most part. It's like really like if you're not on slack, you're n…”
Opinion
Brockman: Codex usability for non-engineers remains quite low
“The Codex app itself was originally built for software engineers, and that it's almost like the current usability of it for non-software engineers is actually quite low, because there's a bunch of little things where, when you set things up, you run into some …”