The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Luria: OpenAI is a negative gross margin business
“Open AI is a negative gross margin business. They claim they're not, but they are right. Which is to say it costs them more to answer your chat GPT question than they make revenue from you.”
Gil Luria Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 41:07 AI Bubble Special Report: Debt, Depreciation, and Losses — With Gil Luria
Assertion Contradicted
OpenAI Plans to Launch ChatGPT Adult Mode in Q1 2026
“This is from Wired. Fiji on the call said the company now plans to roll out its adult mode in the first quarter of twenty-twenty-six. Altman had previously indicated users over 18 would be allowed to have erotic conversations with ChatGPT.”
Alex Kantrowitz Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 22:00 OpenAI’s 2026 Priority, Disney’s AI Play, Datacenter Buildout Trouble
Assertion Contradicted
Siegler: OpenAI's Atlas Browser Refuses to Summarize New York Times Articles
“If you go to a New York times story in Atlas and you say within the Atlas native chat GPT that's baked into it. If you say like summarize this page, it refuses to do it because they don't have an agreement on the content.”
M.G. Siegler Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 31:00 Did Google Just Fall Behind Again?, WWDC Preview, Anthropic Files To Go Public
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT On Track for One Billion Users by Late March
“Definitely on track for a billion by mid, mid to late March.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 32:19 Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Bloodbath at Block, The Citrini Selloff
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT will reach one billion users by April 2026
“ChatGPT hits a billion users, and we know it's at eight hundred million now. I expect that it will hit a billion by April next year at the latest, and I think that's a real moment, I think, for AI and OpenAI in general.”
Alex Kantrowitz Dec 29, 2025 ▶ 2:29 AI & Tech 2026 Outlook: ChatGPT 1 Billion, AI Shopping, Apple's Big Year, AI Love Boom
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