The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Ives: Current fiscal year will be Apple's strongest iPhone unit year ever
“So regardless of what you want to say about Apple intelligence, if it's going to be rolled out in October, November, January, February, in the next, for this fiscal year, this will, unless some black swan event happens, be the strongest iPhone unit year ever h…”
Dan Ives Oct 23, 2024 ▶ 2:00 The Apple Paradox, Trump’s Impact on Markets, NVIDIA Demand — With Dan Ives and Stephanie Link
Prediction Held up
Kantrowitz: The iPhone 16 will not trigger an Apple Intelligence supercycle
“The 16 is not going to be the super cycle. That's based off of apple intelligence. That's so many people hoped.”
Alex Kantrowitz Sep 11, 2024 ▶ 17:40 iPhone16 Arrives + Apple Intelligence Delays
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Apple Spent as Much Time on Phone App as AI
“Apple spent three minutes talking about a phone, the phone app, like who uses the phone app anymore? Like, yeah, there's some nice little cute upgrades, but we didn't need to talk about that for three minutes when we talked about Apple intelligence for roughly…”
M.G. Siegler Jun 11, 2025 ▶ 4:54 What Apple's Failures Say About AI's Limitations —  With M.G. Siegler
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Apple Intelligence cross-app contextual features failed to ship in 2025
“I mean, if you think back to last year's event, we were promised effectively a contextually aware assistant, Apple intelligence that could combine signals from your apps and make your life easier by doing things like searching your Gmail and telling you when y…”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 9, 2025 ▶ 4:35 Apple’s AI 'Gap Year' at WWDC?, Elon Vs. Trump Goes Nuclear, NYTimes’ OpenAI Attack
Assertion Supported
Roy: Siri's Apple Intelligence fails to find flight information in emails
“Apple intelligence cannot find our flight information in our email when you ask Siri, which they pitched us as agentic, and that's my momentary Apple intelligence bashing”
Ranjan Roy Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 42:52 Boom Times For ChatGPT, OpenAI’s Deep Research, AI Super Bowl
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Apple Intelligence cannot pull flight times from Apple Mail
“It still can't do basic things like pull a flight out of Apple Mail and tell you when it's leaving.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jan 5, 2025 ▶ 15:51 Bold Predictions For Tech and AI in 2025 — With Casey Newton
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