The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 12 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic head toward trillion-dollar IPOs within next year
“We have open AI and Anthropic. Now they're going to do fifty billion dollars in revenue this year. They're both headed towards trillion dollar IPOs within the next year.”
Michael: Anthropic's First Amendment retaliation claim against Pentagon will fail
“I think the notion that a First Amendment claim is going to hold up is, is, would be shocking, because that means that the government has no choice to make.”
Roy: Google Gemini will monetize via ads, but Anthropic will avoid them
“At least anthropic is not, I mean, I don't think they're going in that direction at all. Google and Gemini, Obviously, 100% will”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic and OpenAI will both have trillion-dollar IPOs
“We're looking at, they're both, Anthropik and OpenAI are both gonna have trillion dollar IPOs, and we'll have many large companies, I think, that will follow them in the generative AI world.”
MG Siegler predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will not IPO in 2026
“I actually predict as one of my year end predictions, I predicted that neither OpenAI nor Anthropic will go public in 20, 26.”
Anthropic will likely IPO at a $1 trillion valuation
“Anthropic is probably going to go public at a trillion.”
Siegler: OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will probably be delayed to 2027
“In terms of OpenAI and Anthropic, I just think that beyond where their businesses are at and with these now massive fundraisers, as we're talking about, like, I think that it will push it out a little bit. And the real, Wild card is obviously, as it always is,…”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic Will File S-1 or Set IPO Timeline in 2026
“My prediction is, while opening a dozen IPO, Anthropic at least sets a timeline. If not, you know, files in S-One next year.”
Roy: Google will put ads in Gemini; Anthropic will not
“At least anthropic is not. I mean, I don't think they're going in that direction at all. Google and Gemini. Obviously, 100% will.”
Kantrowitz predicts Anthropic will still reach an agreement with the Pentagon
“And ok, on the Pentagon side, my guess is they still end up coming to an agreement with the Pentagon.”