“I definitely think they've been, like, right on a lot of things, right in the sense of, like, this is a big focus, and they've realized it before a lot of other people. Like, this AI stuff, right? The EAs have been talking about this stuff for decades, and, like, it's been a big part of the movement for a long time, right? So, you gotta give them some credit for that. They were talking about pandemics and bio viruses and the dangers that opposed to society from that. Long before COVID. A lot of them saw that coming.”
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More from Dwarkesh Patel
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Patel: Individuals will eventually train superintelligences in basements
“The cost of training, the systems is declining so fast that Literally you will be able to train a super intelligence in a basement at some point in the future.”
Dwarkesh: AGI requires further algorithmic progress, not just current model scaling
“I don't think we're just right around our corner from AGI and it's just a little additional dash of something. That's all it's going to take. I think, you know, people often ask if all AI progress stopped right now and all you could do is collect more data or …”
Dwarkesh: Lack of continual learning prevents LLMs from replacing human labor
“I think a big bottleneck these models have is their inability to learn on the job, to have continual learning. Their entire memory is extinguished at the end of a session. There's a bunch of reasons why I think this actually makes it really hard to get human-l…”
Patel: Online continual learning is not imminent for current AI architectures
“And the reason I don't think that's around the corner is just because there's not, there's no obvious way, at least as far as I can tell, to just slot in this online learning into the models as they exist right now.”
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