Every argument clarity score on this site is built from rows on this page. Each
question and answer was assessed with names hidden, the host's own answers included, on
four things from 1 to 5:
directness (does it answer the question asked), coherence (do the ideas follow),
precision (concrete details and clear references), compression (says a lot per word). The weighted
mix (30/30/25/15) is the exchange score. A person's published score averages their exchange
scores on raw tape only, at least 8 of them, shrunk toward the cohort mean.
Full method →
Answered raw tape
D 5 · C 5 · P 5 · Cm 4 4.85
Q I'm going to talk about China in a bit, but let's go to Stephanie. I mean, Stephanie, is it not puzzling at all to you that we have, like, again, these kind of bad headlines, but unbelievable growth?
A Well, Alex, I think it's all about positioning. Uh, first and foremost, in the S&P 500, this is about a 6.4% weighting. It's the big weighting, right? If you're gonna own the weighting, you have to have six percent of your portfolio in this thing. And I would say the majority of people, especially in the spring, were way underweight. By the way, myself included. Totally myself included. I've had like a one percent weighting in the beginning of the year. And then all of a sudden, Like, April and May came, and it was gloom and doom and downgrades, and numbers were getting cut, and there was no line of sight of any growth of any kind for Apple in the springtime. And that's actually when I thought, okay, I gotta start adding to this position, because it was so, people are so negative and so offside. And maybe they had a reason to be somewhat cautious, because the last, the prior four quarters, For really nothing to be so excited about. It was a transition for Q, for quarters. So I added to it because it kind of felt like I wanted to be the other side. I wanted to be the contrarian and everybody was on the other side of the boat. So that was number one. Um, and I totally believed at the time that AI would be certainly a positive. Would it be the super cycle? Is 16 going to be the super cycle? I'm still not convinced of it. But it would be the beginning of a change of tone. So that w…
AI assessment note: “Well, Alex, I think it's all about positioning.”
Answered raw tape
D 4 · C 5 · P 5 · Cm 4 4.55
Q Stephanie, are you concerned about all this with all this AI talk, um, that people are spending a lot of money, investing a lot of money in the AI trade, but the return on investment is not quite clear yet in terms of what you're getting for all this money?
A Yeah, you know, and it's a really good question. It's hard to answer, but I would say this. I feel, and I don't own NVIDIA, but I own Broadcom, and I own LAM Research, and I got plays, I got ways on playing it, so it's fine. Um, I think there's a lot of ways you can play it. Semis kind of seem to be the ones that are monetizing it the fastest so far, but what I would say is, because a lot of people compare this to the dot-com bubble, and we didn't have earnings in the dot-com bubble. We were, we were, we were valuing companies on eyeballs, which is absurd, um, in retrospect. But we actually have real earnings, and if Dan is right and earnings continue to go higher, then these stocks aren't nearly as expensive. Are they all over-owned? Yes, they are. There is no question. I was buying Broadcom when it traded at 14 times forward estimates. It's now at 27 times, which makes me a little worried, but it's also changed. It stripes a bit in terms of software and diversification, and they have the AI, and they're the number one, the number two player. Um, so I think that's important, number one. Number two, If we didn't see these hyperscalers spending as much money as they are spending on this effort, Then I would be worried. But you've got the hyper, the big hyperscalers that are actually going to invest two hundred and forty one billion dollars this year. That's up 41%. And next year…
AI assessment note: “we actually have real earnings, and if Dan is right and earnings continue to go”
Answered raw tape
D 5 · C 4 · P 4 · Cm 4 4.30
Q Let me just put this out there. Are people buying this, the Apple stock because of Apple intelligence? Because if they are, I don't know. I think that's a mistake because it's not as good as, as advertised. And does the company end up with some sort of blowback because the stock has run up what? 42% in the last six months on the basis of this intelligence, um, search.
A I mean, I, I think that people got very jazzed up on, on AI. I remember their analyst day and that whole thing. I mean, everybody got, you know, really Uh, bowled up, um, and off of a very low expectation and off of a very lower, much lower valuation. I think the stock got as much as low as 26 times forward estimates. And today we're at 35 times forward estimates. So I think, I think the, the risk reward headed into the analyst day and learning more about AI and all of that, that, uh, set it up pretty well. That was your catalyst short term. Um, I think it's not hard to get bullish on The three hundred million folks in this world that haven't upgraded in four years, so that you get a shot at that. At the very least, you get easy comparisons, so China's going to look better. Oh, by the way, China's just put in place the best stimulus since COVID, so maybe you get some sort of resurgence in their consumer, because that's been kind of Dead on arrival since they reopened COVID. Um, and, and so I don't think it's hard to, to, to see why people have gotten more positive. But again, I think it's a lot about positioning and where it is in a waiting perspective from a portfolio management point of point of view.
AI assessment note: “I think that people got very jazzed up on, on AI.”
Answered raw tape
D 5 · C 4 · P 4 · Cm 4 4.30
Q to pay. Um, last thing about Apple, because how could we have this conversation and not mention it? Uh, What happens to Apple if Donald Trump is elected? Because he is going to start a trade war with China, and you know, maybe over time this India thing is going to be fine, but they still need that 20% of revenue coming in from China. What do you think, Stephanie?
A Wow, I think it's not going to just be Apple, unfortunately. I think it's going to be, I think the initial knee-jerk reaction will be sell Apple, sell semiconductors, um, uh, and, and in spades, because they've all done so well over the last several years, uh, even with the President Biden's tariffs, because we know that he kept a lot of tariffs on, but, you know, you listen to what, what, uh, what Trump is saying, and he's talking about doubling and tripling the tariffs over there, so, and it's not going to just be technology. I mean, I think one of the reasons why today, and you know, you guys focus a lot on tech. I focus on a lot of the market in general. Uh, I don't know if you saw that like consumer to scratch got hit so hard today because of that. All of a sudden the, if Trump gets in, how are these companies going to get goods? And it's going to be more expensive. It's going to be across the board, probably for a lot of consumer companies. And that is really Apple. It's at its true core. It is a consumer company, so it will get hit. Maybe that's your opportunity. That's why I say, you know, when everybody goes from one side of the boat to the other and the stock rallies, it's not bad to take some off the table. Again, from an active portfolio management basis. But if you're a long-term holder, if you're going to survive it, maybe the Trump tariffs are more of, uh, just k…
AI assessment note: “the initial knee-jerk reaction will be sell Apple, sell semiconductors”
