The Exchanges

Q But then What is the difference between that and like a Claude code that will take over your computer and code up applications for you?

A Yeah. I mean, I think, I think the difference right now is somewhat minimal and it's going to narrow. I don't know if you've seen this new trend of companies like Pulsia, which are basically like a wrapper on open Claude and Claude code where, uh, you say, here is my business idea. And it says, okay, I'm gonna go and use like a Claude code to code up a product for you. But then also it uses an open clause style architecture to say, I'm gonna go set up a marketing campaign. I'm gonna buy meta ad dollars, those things. And so it's more of a, you could do that all on Claude code, but if you're a non-technical person, it's very, very hard to kind of like bridge the gap there. Um, that being said, I think Claude code is gonna continue to get better and better, and so we'll probably see some more compression. Palsy, I think the founder tweeted they were at, like, three million ARR in, like, a week and a half. So the idea of people being able to bring a business to life with just a prompt is, like, very compelling, and I think we'll see a bunch of, of companies doing this.

AI assessment note: “I think the difference right now is somewhat minimal and it's going to narrow.”

Q At the top of the US App Store and reached one million downloads faster than ChatGPT. Since then, downloads have decreased. I think that's sort of putting it likely. It's falling off the face of the earth. What's going on there?

A Yeah. The, the Sora data is really interesting. Um, There's, there's, like, a ton of lessons, I think, embedded in that one experiment. So the first thing I would probably say is the model's actually very good. I think, uh, it's close to something like a VO-III in terms of, like, realism on both the audio and the video. Their big unlock, which was super smart, was the Cameo feature. So the fact, that was why, like, every, every other Sora was like Jake Paul, because he granted them the right to, like, use the Cameo. And that's what made it go viral, because people were making memes of their friends. Um, but because the videos were exportable, what would happen is that the best Sora videos would get uploaded onto TikTok or Reels, and then they would compete against the best human-made videos, and so the overall feed experience was just kind of strictly better on one of those platforms than on Sora alone. Um, downloads are way down to that point. I think it hasn't become the social network that they maybe hoped it has. Where it is succeeding is as a creative tool, because the model is quite good. So they still have Three million DAOs, and it's actually, you know, slightly climbing over time. Um, so active users. Yes. Daily active users. Yes. So people are still really using it as a creative model, but they're not using it as like a social graph product. We haven't seen anyone cra…

AI assessment note: “I think it hasn't become the social network that they maybe hoped it has.”

Q Do people use those apps within ChatGPT? Like, remember, like a couple years ago, there was all this hype, like, you'll be able to order an Uber right from ChatGPT. I don't know anyone that's done that.

A Yeah. I think the usage has been pretty minimal so far, and I think the implementation, Has been slightly awkward. Like, I think it'll get better over time in terms of how to use it in that a lot of the times the apps break or they don't work. Um, my, like, bold case vision for this would be it's valuable for you as a consumer to have a source of memory and context on yourself. Similar to kind of like a login with Google, Sam has said they're gonna launch login with ChatGPT. And so then that means that Maybe you're not ordering an Uber through ChatGPT, but any other product you can authenticate through, and it can borrow your tokens, it can borrow your memory, it can borrow everything that it knows about you from ChatGPT. I think that is probably more of where we're headed versus, uh, solely using every app in the ChatGPT interface. Um, I love the idea that like in two, three, five years, Onboarding to software should not be a thing. Like, you should be able to log in with a ChatGPT or a Claude, and that new software product should know everything about you and, like, set up perfectly to cater to you, and that's really exciting.

AI assessment note: “I think the usage has been pretty minimal so far”

Q Are you seeing founders come in from like areas you geographies, backgrounds you never would have imagined? Like, is there like, just to get like some, you know, a six year old guy who's been at a company his whole life and never met that developer and now is just clawing his way through.

A Yes, definitely. I think we've definitely seen some geographies pop up where we haven't seen huge tech hubs before. I would say Paris is one. Um, Stockholm is another with lovable and now a whole kind of other wave of companies. Some of those founders do move to SF just because of the, the talent density. I think in general though, like pre AI for if you were building, especially an enterprise business, say software for HVAC, like the people you would want to back in that market is the guy who has done HVAC You know, knows the market inside out, built a company there before, and actually what we're seeing now are the better bets are like the very scrappy high hustle teams that will be able to keep up with the pace of model development and continue to productize the models in the most compelling ways and ship them to customers. Like, so it's a different, ah, maybe archetype of founder that's kind of winning now.

AI assessment note: “Yes, definitely. I think we've definitely seen some geographies pop up”

Q Day. I see another post or, um, tweet on X or whatever they want to call it on X these days about here, like similar to this one, uh, from Dylan Patel from Semi Analysis. Being in SF is like being in Wuhan before the pandemic. Something is happening. It's going to hit everywhere, but so few people know it. Am I underestimating the fact that that could be true?

A I think what is true is that we're gonna have incredibly powerful tools, but also, and I think the people see, that work in the lab see this every day, so they're the ones that are kind of, you know, rightfully so, making the most dramatic statements about it. I think what we've also seen so far, though, is that most of AI use has still been humans directing AI to do things for our benefit versus AI being able to autonomously do everything. I think this is especially relevant when you think about Anything that requires, like, creativity, original ideas, AI largely cannot do. And Sam Altman himself has said this. Like, he said, I would not want to read an AI-generated book versus a book from a human. Um, and so I, I understand the level of fear in the US because I think, to your point, it is driven by uncertainty about where this could go, and a lot of people don't understand technology. Even working in tech, it's hard to understand exactly how the LLMs work. Um, but I think it's gonna be More abundance for people, uh, rather than kind of some, some dark dystopian outcome.

AI assessment note: “I think it's gonna be More abundance for people, uh, rather than kind of some, some dark dystopian outcome.”

Q Like, uh, OpenAI has this adult mode coming on. Do you think we're fully ready for this? Is this a good idea?

A I think that this is, from my understanding, because for, for this report, we pull every single website globally, every single mobile app globally, and then we go down the list in descending order of traffic and pull the first 50 on each that are generative AI native. So I see a lot of other websites pulling data for this report, and I think people were already, um, kind of experimenting with the same use cases through NSFW sites or role play sites, fan fiction, things like that, that Really clearly translates over to, I think, what we're seeing people use the LLMs for here. Um, I do think it, of course, has to be handled carefully. You'll see that there is, I think, five of them on this version of the top 50 web ranks, and that's been pretty consistent since we started the list. It's a popular use case, but it's one that's like pretty hard to monetize.

AI assessment note: “I do think it, of course, has to be handled carefully.”