The Exchanges

Q Yeah. That's the, that's kind of one of the hypotheses we've been playing with on the show now is did Apple just do it right where Apple becomes the infrastructure for AI or it happens on your phone? And on the Mac mini and the models become so efficient or purpose built that you don't need the data centers.

A It may very well be that that's where this lands. Having said that, I would imagine that this should be the greatest opportunity for Google and Alphabet Effect or Alphabet to truly take share because Gemini, if built the way I think it should be built, should be able to move you around their phone in shocking ways, right? It should be able to move into any app, control any app, do everything throughout the phone. I can't imagine that Apple, which really has made its name around privacy and controls and sort of a walled garden, Even under this new deal that they're going to have with Google and using Gemini as sort of their Siri are going to let whatever that is go super deep throughout the entire phone. And so I would imagine that's why I've always, I've always thought this should be Google's time.

AI assessment note: “It may very well be that that's where this lands. Having said that”

Q being actually held up by Tom Tillis, who's not happy with the fact that the executive is, is, uh, or the white house is, you know, influencing the fed in this way. How important is fed independent? How important is fed independence, um, from politicians who obviously will want that money to be spent no matter what. Um, if we're gonna have a system that doesn't get into another crash.

A So I'm generally of the view that Fed independence is hugely important, especially because typically if you do get into a crisis situation, you often have to make hugely politically unpopular decisions. Um, if you just were playing politics, you might not do some of these things, and that's a problem. The question that I don't think we will know until a year or two or maybe even three from now is Kevin Warsh, who I've known, by the way, for many years, um, who is very, very bright, clearly has gotten this job in part because the president believes that he's gonna follow what the, either the president wants or that currently their thinking is aligned. To lower rates. To lower rates. It'll be very interesting to see whether, A, Kevin Warsh stays in line with the president. I, by the way, think he could be an independent actor, ultimately, because interestingly, once you get this job, the job is yours. It's a little bit like becoming a Supreme Court justice. There are people that the president's appointed, uh, that have then, um, you know, decided, uh, decided against him. So I think it's possible. The other thing is, The Fed is a little bit like the Supreme Court also, in that just because you are, um, the, the chair in this case, Kevin isn't the one who, isn't the only vote. He has to convince all of these other people to do what he wants, and I would imagine in the first six mo…

AI assessment note: “I'm generally of the view that Fed independence is hugely important”

Q Yeah. So where does this go? Does every CEO all of a sudden need to have like a meme strategy where, you know, they, uh, make a, do an AMA on wall street bets and try to, you know, corral all these retail investors.

A You know, I think there's a whole, whole world of CEOs who say, oh my God, could this happen to us? How's this going to work? In some respects, there's an argument you made. This can't really happen to every company out there and especially massive, large companies. I mean, it would be very hard For a retail base of investors to move the stock of an Apple or a Walmart or an Amazon in this kind of way. Um, What made these things attractive was both the short interest. Um, I don't want to say the small amount of volume, but the sort of these were smaller companies. I mean, by the way, now they're big, big multi, tens of billions of dollar value companies. Um, so it's possible at some level this can happen. I don't want to say that nobody's susceptible, but I think there's sort of a range of kind of company with a kind of valuation and, uh, A kind of perspective around these issues around what the short interest is like for something like this to happen and be attractive to this group.

AI assessment note: “This can't really happen to every company out there and especially massive, large companies.”

Q the argument that people make to say this is totally normal is that All stocks are traded on momentum and stories. And so what if a GameStop or what if an AMC is, uh, traded on a story and people just get mad when it's, you know, the common person doing it versus, uh, you know, uh, traditional investors that are doing it. What do you think about that argument?

A I, I don't, I don't buy it. I, I just don't buy it. And it's not because I, you know, first of all, I, I would love the quote unquote, little guy. I even hate that phrase to do, you know, to be wildly successful and to beat the man. I would love that. I'm not even sure that's what's even happening here, but there is, I think a distinction between what's happening in this, in, in this sort of meme stock era and the sort of Frankly, blatant manipulation that happens to the extent we're going to call it manipulation that happens in the market via institutional investors. And the biggest distinction I'd make is that one group, the professional investor, typically kind of knows what they're doing. They understand it, and they understand the risks of it. If you spend enough time on Reddit, and for better or worse, I do, There are a lot of people that don't really understand what's going on at all. And, uh, there's a lot of misinformation. There's a lot of disinformation. Um, there's a lot of people who, who don't even believe information that's factual in front of them. I mean, this is sort of almost financial. The financial is this financial moments almost become politicized in, in certain ways. And some of the things that we've seen In politics over the last four or five years, it's sort of come to the market. Uh, and so I worry about that, and I worry about the people who have, fr…

AI assessment note: “I, I don't, I don't buy it. I, I just don't buy it.”

Q What did you think when you heard that?

A Um, I thought that was the right thing to say. If you're the mayor of Miami and you're trying to become the mayor of, you know, the crypto capital, if it becomes a crypto capital, I think that he said the words you were supposed to say, I imagine he bought it because he wanted to play with it. I think he imagined he bought it so he could say that he had bought some and believed in it in the same way that he's trying to do this for the city. I have been somewhat skeptical of, of the argument around inflation. I think inflation is real, by the way, but I, around sort of whether Bitcoin becomes the standard. Um, it may, it may not. It's, it's, to me, the whole thing is so hard to figure out. And maybe I'm, maybe that makes me too skeptical of it. I think it could, It could have some success. I just don't know if it's really going to turn into a currency. I don't know what happens when there is regulation. You know, Uh, for the first time, um, we just learned that for what there's a couple of companies that are going to start working on for one K plans to allow you to put crypto into them. I think all of a sudden that's going to force the issue for regulators to figure out what they're going to do.

AI assessment note: “I thought that was the right thing to say. If you're the mayor of Miami”

Q the near term, but for something to be, if it does live up to the dreams that the AI makers have, and it's something as, as capable as being able to do the jobs of, let's say, 20% of the workforce, wouldn't you anticipate a production boom that would come along with that and help grow the economy in a way that leads to more things for people to do?

A So that to me is the question. It's not, is there more things to do? It's who's going to have the money to do those things. So when I think about all of the young people, and by the way, I don't think that we have to have mass unemployment forever either. I think it's possible that there could be a painful transition period. And historically, by the way, when we've gone through these technological revolutions, there have been painful transition periods. And so if you're a young person today, Doing the job that frankly, increasingly it appears that a Claude or, or ChatGPT could even do, whether it's research, or putting together a model, or, uh, being a paralegal, or name your role, you say to yourself, okay, if you're running one of these firms that historically hired kids out of college to do that, are you gonna still hire those kids to do that? Is there a higher order Kind of work that they can do for you now that you can get this work done by the AI? I mean, I think these are the real questions. And then there's going to be an economic one, which is, you know, tokens are not free. AI is not free, but how much cheaper is it ultimately going to be than a human?

AI assessment note: “It's not, is there more things to do? It's who's going to have the money”