Sep 9, 2026 · 59m · big-technology
Apple’s Folding Phone "Duo" Is Here + OpenAI vs. Google vs. Anthropic Revisited — With M.G. Siegler
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Host Alex Kantrowitz and tech analyst M.G. Siegler analyze Apple's upcoming hardware pivot—spotlighting its rumored $2,000 foldable iPhone and the executive succession of John Ternus—before dissecting the intense pre-IPO competitive battles and shifting dynamics among OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 36.2% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 5.8 Guest teaching 3.5 Guest disagreement 1.1 Alex pushing back 1.1
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 45:54 MG rejects SemiAnalysis report framing on Google
MG directly challenges the SemiAnalysis assertion that DeepMind is permanently out of the frontier race, labeling it overzealous.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 48:50 Alex presses Google's strategic cloud-versus-frontier compute tradeoffAlex insists that prioritizing GCP compute monetization over training state-of-the-art models represents a calculated shift Google must defend.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 9:25 MG explains foldable ergonomics and aspect ratiosMG uses his real-world experience owning three generations of Pixel Folds to educate Alex on typing ergonomics and passport aspect ratios.
Alex holds their own ▶ 49:53 Alex outlines Google's TPU economics against Nvidia and cloud rivalsAlex commands the technical economics discussion by comparing Google's TPU infrastructure to Nvidia's multiple-trillion-dollar valuation.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previewing Apple's First Foldable Smartphone and Pricing Model | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Alex sets up the episode by citing Mark Gurman's Bloomberg reporting regarding Apple's upcoming hardware announcements and details of the foldable iPhone. MG agrees and complements the analysis with his perspective on Samsung and historical hardware cycles. The atmosphere is completely collaborative. | |
| Foldable Economics, ASP Expansion, and Executive Succession | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Alex demonstrates strong financial literacy by citing Samsung's 2021 foldable launch metrics and analyzing ASP expansion alongside the Ternus transition. MG expands on Wall Street dynamics, component pricing, and margins without disputing Alex's premise. | |
| Ergonomics, Aspect Ratios, and Hybrid Operating Systems | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Alex cites Motorola's sales lift and asks MG about the physical ergonomics. MG shares detailed first-hand experience testing multiple generations of Google Pixel Fold devices and speculates on iOS/iPadOS hybrid software. A friendly, peer-level technical exchange. | |
| The 'Mullet iPhone' Concept: Balancing Productivity and Media | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Alex queries whether the foldable is media-first or productivity-first. MG coins the 'mullet iPhone' concept (business folded, party unfolded), which Alex enthusiastically embraces. | |
| Foldable Durability, Hinge Engineering, and AppleCare Revenues | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Alex and MG banter about hardware hinges, screen breakage risks, and AppleCare revenue upside. Both are aligned on the commercial and engineering tradeoffs. | |
| John Ternus Leadership Transition and Supply Chain Headwinds | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Alex draws on his recent CNBC appearance discussing Ternus's immediate priorities around memory crunches and hardware margins. MG builds on this by referencing Bob Iger and Bob Chapek at Disney to illustrate succession pitfalls. | |
| Apple Intelligence Positioning Under John Ternus's Tenure | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Alex asks how crucial AI execution will be for Ternus. MG reviews his experience running the OS betas and explains how Siri meets baseline utility while agentic workflows remain a future challenge. | |
| Executive Compensation Structure and Cook's Ongoing Influence | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Alex cites Bloomberg reporting on Cook and Ternus's contrasting 2027 RSU packages ($45M vs $55M), questioning if this creates a de facto co-CEO structure. MG elaborates on performance milestones and Cook's political diplomacy role. | |
| iPhone 18 Pro Upgrades Versus Foldable Ultra Prominence | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Alex details the rumored specs of the iPhone 18 Pro (mechanical aperture, A20 Pro chip) and asks whether the foldable will cannibalize attention. MG weighs the optical tradeoffs imposed by thin foldable chassis physics. | |
| Personal Purchase Intentions and Expected Manufacturing Delays | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | A conversational segment where MG states he plans to buy the foldable Ultra, while Alex explains why he is sticking with his current phone on a two-year upgrade cadence. MG adds thoughts on expected supply chain constraints. | |
| Touchscreen OLED MacBook Pro Overhaul and Product Cannibalization | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Alex introduces leaked plans for OLED touchscreen MacBook Pros. MG explores Apple's historical reversal on touch Macs and the UI scaling challenges between macOS and touch interaction. | |
| Apple's 2027 Vision: Bold Bets on Wearables and Robotics | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Alex lists Apple's long-term hardware pipeline (smart glasses, camera AirPods, tabletop robotics) and asks if Apple is shifting its corporate culture. MG compares this to Satya Nadella's early playbook at Microsoft. | |
| Mid-Roll Break and Transition to the AI Market | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | Following the mid-roll break, Alex cites SemiAnalysis reporting on Demis Hassabis's role change and claims Google DeepMind has dropped out of the frontier race. MG pushes back mildly, arguing the analysis is somewhat overzealous. | |
| Google Cloud Platform Strategy and TPU Hardware Monetization | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Alex brings up Google's proprietary TPUs, contrasting its profit model against Nvidia, AWS, and potential Anthropic market caps. MG agrees and elaborates on Google's search profits funding chip infrastructure. | |
| OpenAI Project Astra Launch and Deconstructing AGI Claims | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | Alex questions the rush by OpenAI and Jensen Huang to declare AGI with Project Astra. MG cynically dissects this as pure marketing unmoored from functional realities like picking up grandma from the airport. | |
| Anthropic vs. OpenAI: Pre-IPO Positioning and Security Dilemmas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Alex and MG discuss Anthropic's looming S-1 filing, security breaches, and joke about who will claim 'AGI' as their stock ticker before closing the show cordially. |
Statements from this episode (26)
Siegler: Apple's foldable iPhone will be a huge hit despite high price
“Like, I think that Apple set this up well. I think it's going to be a huge hit for them, even though, as you noted, it's insane. It's going to be insanely expensive.”
Kantrowitz: Samsung's 2021 foldable push grew sales 6% and revenue 11%
“And so when Samsung made its big foldable phone push in 20, 21 interesting thing happened. So first of all, their overall sales went up by six percent, but revenue went up 11%.”
Siegler: A $2,000 foldable iPhone will sharply raise Apple's ASP
“And so that, of course, what's it going to do? The average selling price. It's going to jack it way up. If this thing is over 2000 dollars now, maybe their margins, you know, again, their margins are obviously impacted by all the components stuff that we just …”
Kantrowitz: Motorola folding phone launch drove 21% sales surge and 17% higher ASP
“Motorola also, you mentioned them, when they released their flip phone, their folding phone their sales went up 21%, and average sales price went up, I think, 17%.”
Siegler: Apple foldable will fit pockets better than iPhone Pro Max
“I think the iPhone, I think what Apple will hit on here is I think the slightly more passport like shape in when I'm envisioning it, I think about like right now with the current, I have a pro max, so it's obviously the massive one and it's very tall. It's obv…”
Siegler: Apple will pitch foldable iPhone for both productivity and media
“I wouldn't be shocked if they play that up, obviously they'll want to still talk about the productivity gains you can get from unfolding and having a bigger screen, but I do think a lot of it, you're exactly right, is going to be, yeah, just like watching YouT…”
Kantrowitz expects foldable iPhone AppleCare will cost $300 to $400
“It's a 2000 dollar plus phone. I'm sure it'll be 300 dollars maybe 300 dollars for two years or 400 for two years to get the care package on it and then services revenue grow right with it.”
Siegler: Apple will undoubtedly face class action lawsuits over foldable iPhones
“There will be, of course, people who bend it the other way to prove that it could bend, you know, it's not invincible and there'll be all sorts of fun class action lawsuits undoubtedly that, that arise as these new form factors come into play.”
Siegler: Cook takes Apple executive chairman role with CEO-level pay
“Even though he's taking the step back out of the CEO role as executive chairman. He's getting paid CEO-level money”
Siegler: Apple's upgraded Siri will satisfy the masses but not power AI users
“Siri is not gonna blow anyone away who's been day-to-day living with OpenAI and Anthropa and Claude but it's certainly gonna be good enough for the masses, and I think that they're gonna get some new experiences that those are not as versed in AI that they'll …”
Kantrowitz: Cook and Ternus comp packages look more like co-CEOs
“That feels more like co-CEOs to me than it does. Like one person's the CEO and the other person's the executive chairman.”
Siegler: Cook will stay very active on Apple campus as chairman
“It does seem like cook will actually be very active. He's getting a new office. He's going to be on campus. It's not like the typical sort of executive chair.”
Siegler: iPhone Pro will retain a better camera system than foldable iPhone
“The pro will continue to have the best camera system. Largely, it seems like simply because of laws of physics, right? And the way that the foldable is gonna be more space constrained you know, by the, by its nature.”
Siegler: Apple is adding seamless cross-device phone number switching to iOS
“They have a new software feature coming in iOS where you can basically transfer your phone number from one device to the next super easily. So you could just say like, I'm using this device now, and it will take your phone number and put it over.”
Siegler: Marketing a touchscreen Mac will challenge Apple after years of denials
“I think it'll be a marketing challenge after years and years, but Apple's done that historically, of course, said that they weren't doing something until they come out to do it.”
Siegler: Adapting macOS for touch input is Apple's primary MacBook challenge
“I think the bigger issue is how they do Mac OS to deal with this touch element, because that's been part of the talking point, right? Of like why they weren't going to do a touch screen Mac in the past. It's like, it's just a different beast. There's different…”
Kantrowitz: Apple's smart home hub push signals confidence in its AI
“You know, to me, that's just a sign of confidence that they have in their artificial intelligence that, like, they're willing to push, make this push again. Obviously, AI is going to be central to any device like this, and Apple must feel good about it.”
Siegler: Apple postponed smart home hub and devices because Siri wasn't ready
“Well, and this is one of those devices that's apparently been on hold forever because AI wasn't ready, right? Siri was so bad that they had to postpone the release of this and maybe a few other devices, including new versions of the HomePod and Apple TV.”
Kantrowitz: Demis Hassabis has stepped down as Google DeepMind CEO
“Demis Hassabis stepped down as the CEO of Google DeepMind.”
Siegler thinks Google has cancelled Gemini 3.5 Pro
“We still have no 3.5 pro. They haven't come out and said that it's dead, but I think it's dead.”
Siegler: Microsoft has not released any frontier AI models
“Microsoft has played it, right? Like they obviously famously had the open AI deal in place. They sort of renegotiated that and that, you know, all the talk was that that would unlock them to go after the frontier. There is talk that they are, you know, they've…”
Siegler: Greg Brockman declaring AGI with Astra is purely marketing
“My general read on AGI of Greg Brockman proclaiming it with Astra is that it's full on marketing now.”
Siegler: OpenAI no longer has an AGI clause with Microsoft
“OpenAI, as noted, no longer has the AGI clause with Microsoft, so they can sort of do whatever they want now, and just declare AGI here, here, or there, and it doesn't impact anything beyond public perception”
Siegler: Anthropic could file S-1 within weeks and IPO next month
“Presumably we're going to get the you know, the S one any day now, it could be this week, could be next week. And the, you know, the offering might be next month.”