Oct 25, 2023 · 53m · big-technology
Big Technology's New Release, AI Bubble Looms, Apple's Next Event — With Brian McCullough
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this crossover episode, tech journalist Alex Kantrowitz and Techmeme Ride Home host Brian McCullough unpack the major tech developments of 2023, analyzing Big Tech's post-layoff financial rebound, the platform war between OpenAI and Meta, autonomous vehicle breakthroughs, and Apple's hardware roadmap.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 42.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 6.5 Guest teaching 3.3 Guest disagreement 2.3 Alex pushing back 2.2
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 45:19 Brian checks Alex on declaring crypto dead
Brian directly interrupts Alex's premise that crypto is completely disgraced by pointing out that Bitcoin spiked to an 18-month high of $35k that very day.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 22:46 Alex rejects the ancillary tech label for AVsAlex firmly pushes back against Brian's suggestion that robotaxis are merely an ancillary platform like Uber, arguing they fundamentally restructure urban infrastructure.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 45:19 Brian reveals Bitcoin's sudden 18-month price surgeBrian catches Alex off guard with immediate market data regarding the imminent Bitcoin ETF approval, demonstrating a sharp informational advantage on the spot.
Alex holds their own ▶ 11:27 Alex breaks down Meta's advertiser retention and ad rebuildAlex demonstrates authoritative command of digital advertising dynamics, laying out how advertisers returned to Meta after experimenting elsewhere post-ATT.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launching Big Technology Premium and Big Tech War Stories | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | The opening segment is promotional and conversational, focusing on the announcement of Big Technology Premium and Brian McCullough's participation on the expert panel. Both host and guest maintain a supportive, collaborative tone. | |
| Big Tech 2023 Rebound: Meta's Efficiency and Cloud Computing Rivalries | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Alex demonstrates strong financial and operational knowledge detailing Meta's Year of Efficiency, the $10B ATT headwind recovery, and Amazon's Anthropic hedge. Brian prompts Alex and adds context about GPU-rich cloud startups challenging AWS. | |
| Analyzing Apple's Hardware Supercycle and Geopolitical Headwinds | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Alex provides a nuanced breakdown of Apple's growth challenges, linking longer upgrade cycles with Chinese public service bans and Huawei's domestic resurgence. Brian concurs and notes Google's extended Pixel support. | |
| The Real Breakthroughs: Autonomous Vehicles and Drone Delivery | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Alex highlights Waymo's rapid operational expansion in Phoenix and San Francisco as an unheralded breakthrough. Brian questions whether AVs are merely ancillary to core tech platforms, prompting Alex to defend their transformative societal impact. | |
| Generative AI Hype Cycle and the Meta vs. OpenAI Rivalry | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | Brian takes the intellectual lead explaining VC incentives behind open-source LLMs and why Meta is positioned to undercut OpenAI's closed ecosystem. Alex directs the discussion around Amara's Law and corporate rivalries. | |
| The Crypto Market Lull and the Post-FTX Reality | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | When Alex declares crypto disgraced, Brian interjects with breaking news that Bitcoin surged to $35k on ETF anticipation. Alex counters that speculative price spikes do not equate to the new utility or consumer innovation promised during the pandemic boom. |
Statements from this episode (13)
Kantrowitz: Meta increased metaverse spending despite its 'Year of Efficiency' cost cuts
“That's actually not what happened. They didn't cut spend at all. They, in fact, increased spend on the metaverse. I mean, they are not taking their foot off the gas pedal there, and they've just tried to trim elsewhere within the company.”
Kantrowitz: Apple's Anti-Tracking Changes Cost Meta $10 Billion in Revenue
“I mean, there was a real hit, especially with Apple's anti-tracking moves. We're talking about a ten billion dollar loss coming in or a contraction of revenue coming in.”
Kantrowitz: Amazon Invested $1.25B in Anthropic With Options Up to $4B
“They positioned themselves a lot better with their big investment in Anthropic, right? Already 1.25 billion in Anthropic, potentially up to four billion investment in Anthropic, which is like this counterweight to open AI.”
McCullough: GPU Startups Could Provide Alternatives to AWS and Incumbent Clouds
“There are these new startups that have access to the Nvidia chips that are creating sort of sort of new cloud offerings I've been hearing from a lot of people that, like, this could provide the opening for people to get a wedge against the traditional, because…”
Kantrowitz: Apple has seen four straight quarters of revenue decline
“The comps to COVID definitely don't help, but we have,
Like four straight quarters of revenue growth decline.”
Kantrowitz: Waymo expanded Phoenix operational area past 200 square miles
“Waymo since 2021 has gone from 50 square miles of operation within Phoenix, which is already a decent amount of size to more than 200 square miles in Phoenix.”
Kantrowitz: Waymo ranks alongside iPhone and ChatGPT as top tech experiences
“I put it up there with iPhone, chat GPT and Waymo cars, the three most amazing experiences I've had with tech in my lifetime.”
McCullough: Generative AI will become an everyday conversational reality within five years
“I think that we're underestimating the ability of the true promise of computing to be manifest within our lives, normal people's lives within less than five years.”
McCullough: Ride Home AI Fund has made only one application-layer investment
“Our thesis has been to go after the productization of stuff. So like what is the Airbnb or the Uber of this paradigm shift? I would say by our definition, we've only made one of those types of investments and all of the other investments right now have sort of…”
McCullough: Vertical AI applications like AI for law lack defensibility
“We've kicked the tires on dozens and dozens of these products, you know, AI for architecture, AI for law or whatever, and they don't seem defensible.”
McCullough: Meta pushes open source AI to avoid another mobile platform dependency
“Meta does not want to be in a position where the only way they can do that with a high degree of accuracy and efficacy is to have to ping somebody else's APIs. Because again, they'll be in the position that they have been with like the iPhone and Android all t…”
McCullough: Meta Is Most Likely to Dethrone OpenAI Within Three Years
“If someone's gonna dethrone, if OpenAI is and also ran within three years, I bet it'll be Meta. I, my money would be on Meta that would dethrone them, and then maybe Google slash Alphabet.”
McCullough: Apple's 'Scary Fast' Event Will Focus on M3 Chip
“The fact that they're doing a special event at a special time, and it's called Scary Fast, says to me that they are excited to tell us about the M. And they must have something that they think is significant to tell us about how those chips perform. Now, they'…”