Oct 23, 2024 · 51m · big-technology
The Apple Paradox, Trump’s Impact on Markets, NVIDIA Demand — With Dan Ives and Stephanie Link
0:00 / 0:00
▶ Watch on YouTube →
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of the Big Technology Podcast, host Alex Kantrowitz and market strategists Stephanie Link and Dan Ives analyze mega-cap tech valuations, exploring Apple's AI-driven upgrade cycle, NVIDIA's infrastructure dominance, Amazon's cloud growth, and macroeconomic headwinds spanning elections, tariffs, and antitrust regulations.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 28.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 5.4 Guest teaching 5.0 Guest disagreement 2.9 Alex pushing back 4.1
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 39:52 Dan defends AI enterprise monetization against Alex's skepticism
Dan passionately pushes back against the premise that enterprise AI use cases are stalling, pointing to Palantir and ServiceNow as proof of explosive enterprise demand.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 39:12 Alex questions downstream revenue models behind massive chip capexAlex refuses to accept the hype around infrastructure spend, pointing out that software monetization beyond chatbots remains unproven and citing OpenAI's internal financial expectations.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 42:21 Stephanie's masterclass on Amazon's margins and valuationStephanie systematically lays out AWS operating margins, ad growth trajectory, satellite capex context, and forward PEG comparisons, earning a mic drop commendation from Dan Ives.
Alex holds their own ▶ 16:24 Alex brings hard data on Huawei's market share gain against Apple in ChinaAlex cites Counterpoint Research metrics proving that despite initial iPhone 16 sales, Apple's overall unit volume in China slipped as Huawei captured legacy phone market share.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyzing Apple's 42 Percent Valuation Surge and Fundamentals | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | Alex challenges Apple's 42% valuation surge, questioning the substance behind Apple Intelligence, Vision Pro, and China slowdowns. Dan defends his bullish thesis on a massive upgrade cycle and services growth, playfully dismissing skeptics as doing 'mathematical gymnastics'. | |
| Stephanie Link on Portfolio Sizing and Apple Profit Taking | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | Stephanie explains her contrarian positioning in Apple, detailing how she built a position in spring and trimmed profits at 35 times forward earnings. Alex engages on portfolio weighting and management turnover, contrasting Apple's institutional stability with Tesla. | |
| Debating Apple Intelligence Reality Versus Investor Expectations | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | Alex presses Dan and Stephanie on whether retail investors are overhyping Apple Intelligence relative to actual product utility. Dan frames Apple as the essential tollbooth for consumer AI, while acknowledging Alex's sharp skeptical counter-perspectives. | |
| China Competition Dynamics and Apple's Strategic India Expansion | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Alex raises specific Counterpoint Research data regarding Huawei gaining share over legacy iPhones in China. Dan points to a Baidu AI partnership catalyst, while Stephanie shifts focus to India's demographic growth and supply chain diversification. | |
| AI Infrastructure Driving Unprecedented Cybersecurity Spending | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | The conversation naturally shifts to cybersecurity as a second-order beneficiary of enterprise AI spending. Alex adds color with a personal anecdote about AI voice cloning risks, and both guests validate the spending tailwinds. | |
| Assessing Market Impacts of the Presidential Election and Tariffs | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | Alex prompts the guests on how tariffs and presidential election outcomes impact market stability and Big Tech antitrust. Stephanie and Dan explain why market gridlock in Congress is favored over political sweeps. | |
| Navigating Geopolitical Risks and Embracing Contrarian Buying | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Alex inquires about geopolitical conflict risks around Taiwan, which Dan and Stephanie dismiss as low-probability tail risks while emphasizing buying pullbacks during peak market panic. | |
| NVIDIA Blackwell Demand and the Expanding AI Energy Grid | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | Alex strongly questions the AI trade ROI, pointing out that OpenAI expects direct ChatGPT revenue rather than enterprise API usage to lead monetization. Dan reacts strongly with counterexamples like Palantir and ServiceNow, while Stephanie emphasizes data center power constraints. | |
| Amazon's Compelling Valuation, AWS Momentum, and Ad Growth | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | Stephanie delivers a detailed bull thesis on Amazon's AWS margins, advertising growth, and low valuation compared to Apple, prompting praise from Dan. Alex examines the high margins of Amazon's advertising engine and first-party retail data advantages. |
Statements from this episode (32)
Ives: 300 million iPhones haven't been upgraded in four years
“There's three hundred million iPhones that haven't upgraded in four years.”
Ives: Current fiscal year will be Apple's strongest iPhone unit year ever
“So regardless of what you want to say about Apple intelligence, if it's going to be rolled out in October, November, January, February, in the next, for this fiscal year, this will, unless some black swan event happens, be the strongest iPhone unit year ever h…”
Ives: 20% of consumers will access AI through Apple within 18 months
“The second is that it's our view, regardless of timing, next 1218 months, 20% of the world ultimately is going to access AI, especially as more developers build apps through an Apple device.”
Ives: Consumer AI will add $10B-$15B yearly to Apple's services revenue
“My view is from a consumer AI perspective, the monetization here, we think it'd be ultimately an incremental 10, fifteen billion per year of services.”
Ives: Apple's services business will reach a $2 trillion valuation
“That services piece that at one point was valued, five hundred billion, I think it's going to be closer to two trillion in terms of the valuation as that reaches 125 hundred fifty billion per year.”
Ives: Apple gained ~300 bps of China market share over two years
“First off, they've gained about 300 bips of market share in China in the last two years.”
Ives: Apple's China sales will grow 15% to 20% next year
“But Alex, if you look at comps, the next year, China's gonna be up 15, 20%, and that's why, like, the bears, when they come out of hibernation mood with iPhone mathematical gymnastics trying to scare people, the reason the stock's not doing anything, because i…”
Link: iPhone 17 and 18 will be stronger upgrade cycles than 16
“I think that maybe 17 and 18, I feel really good about those phones. I'm not so sure that 16 is going to be the blow away, but the expectations are still kind of muted.”
Link: AI will be an absolute home run for Apple's app business
“Now, long-term services, I do think is going to be a home run. I think AI is going to be an absolute home run for the apps business.”
Link: Apple's forward P/E multiple expanded from 26x to 35x
“I think the stock got as much as low as 26 times forward estimates. And today we're at 35 times forward estimates.”
Ives: Apple upgrade cycle will drive stock regardless of AI
“This upgrade cycle in itself without AI, the stock's going to work. The AI piece is ultimately the start of how most consumers in the world are going to eventually interact with AI.”
Ives: Meta and Google will eventually integrate into Apple Intelligence
“Apple basically said, we now will be the castle for AI. And if you want access to it, you got to come through Apple intelligence, clearly open AI. I eventually think Meta Google are going to have to make the same move.”
Ives: 100 million iPhones in China are in an upgrade window
“The biggest opportunity is you have a hundred million iPhones in China that are in a window of an upgrade opportunity.”
Ives: Apple-Baidu AI deal is Apple's biggest potential catalyst
“Does Baidu and Apple strike a deal where Baidu becomes ultimately the AI partner? If that, like if you said to me the biggest catalyst that could happen on the name, it's that.”
Link: Apple targets manufacturing one in four iPhones in India
“Tim Cook makes one iPhone for every seven in India, and his goal is to get from one iPhone to every four in India”
Ives: Europe will fall behind every country in AI
“I mean, you're the way Europe's going. I mean, you're going to have every country in the world is going to be ahead of Europe when it comes to AI.”
Ives: AI will directly benefit cybersecurity leaders as a derivative play
“AI, Is gonna be a direct beneficiary for cyber. Call it second, third derivative. That's just gonna add CyberArk, Paolo, Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Okta, others.”
Link: The top five cybersecurity vendors will consolidate and grow larger
“And so I think you're going to see massive consolidation of like the big five get even bigger and bigger over time because they need to offer more services and products to their customers that do talk to each other.”
Link: Trump election victory will trigger selloffs in Apple and semis
“I think the initial knee-jerk reaction will be sell Apple, sell semiconductors and in spades, because they've all done so well over the last several years even with the President Biden's tariffs, because we know that he kept a lot of tariffs on, but, you know,…”
Ives: Trump victory will initially hurt AI trade, Apple, and Tesla
“Trump gets in, if he gets in, It is very negative for the AI trade. Initially, semis, tariffs, retaliatory for Apple, Tesla.”
Ives: Khan will leave FTC under Harris, boosting tech sector
“I think the view is Harris gets elected despite all the, you know, sort of antics. I think Khan's out, which would be bullish for tech from an FTC perspective.”
Ives: Chinese blockade or takeover of Taiwan is a very low-probability event
“I think there's a view that that's just very low likelihood that that's going to happen. Now look, in Hong Kong, you definitely sense some seat changes in terms of what we see, but look, we're always going to have these sort of, as Stephanie talks about a lot,…”
Ives: Asian supply checks show 15-to-1 demand for NVIDIA Blackwell
“In Asia, we just, it was 15 to one demand to supply. Four months ago, it was 12 to one.”
Ives: NVIDIA will reach $4 trillion market cap in 3-6 months
“I think you're looking at four trillion dollar mark cap again in the next three to six months. I mean, that's, I think them and Apple, they battle it out for that finish line to get the four trillion.”
Link: Big hyperscalers will invest $241B in 2024 and $278B in 2025
“You've got the hyper, the big hyperscalers that are actually going to invest two hundred and forty one billion dollars this year. That's up 41%. And next year up two hundred and seventy eight billion. That's up 17%.”
Link: $4 trillion will be spent on energy grid by 2050
“We are going to spend four trillion dollars between now and 20 50 on the whole energy part of the cycle.”
Link: Amazon will generate $48B in free cash flow in 2024
“They are gonna generate free cash flow this year of forty eight billion dollars, so let's just put that to bed right there.”
Link: AWS and advertising will reach 31% of Amazon's revenue by 2030
“AWS Growing 19, 20% with 33% margins. You have advertising growing up low double digits with 50% margins, and collectively those two businesses are, right now, they are about 24% of total revenue. That's gonna get to 31% by the end of this decade”
Link: Amazon will deliver ~20% 5-year CAGR, beating Meta and Google
“And I think you're going to see a CAGR of about 20% for the next five years at this company versus Meta at 13% and versus Google at 12.8%.”
Ives: Amazon risk/reward is a table pounder with 25-30% upside
“I mean, I think there's a stock that could be up 25, 30%, maybe call it five percent type down. The risk reward here is a table pounder in our opinion.”