Jan 13, 2026 · 52m · big-technology
AI’s Steve Jobs?, Big Tech AI Chaos, 2026 Crystal Ball
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
On the Big Technology Podcast, host Alex Kantrowitz and tech writer MG Siegler examine whether artificial intelligence needs a charismatic communicator like Steve Jobs, evaluate the shifting competitive landscape across Big Tech, and share key industry predictions for 2026.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 33.7% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 5.9 Guest teaching 3.3 Guest disagreement 1.9 Alex pushing back 3.4
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 34:11 Siegler defends incumbent positions through cloud-model circularity
Siegler pushes back against the premise that incumbents are simply failing, detailing the structural double-edged sword of cloud and model co-dependencies.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 33:33 Kantrowitz challenges the stability narrative of Big TechKantrowitz rejects a benign view of incumbent performance, explicitly noting that four of the five largest tech giants are behind the eight ball.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 38:58 Siegler links AI native products to the mobile transition historySiegler provides historical tech analysis, explaining how bolting features onto legacy products failed incumbent car rental agencies and Facebook during the shift to mobile.
Alex holds their own ▶ 36:07 Kantrowitz exposes product deficits across Big TechKantrowitz demonstrates sharp industry command by systematically calling out Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta for having zero standout native AI products.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Steve Jobs Thesis and AI Marketing | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Kantrowitz probes Siegler's thesis by questioning whether a software interface like ChatGPT could ever replicate Steve Jobs' charismatic hardware demos. Siegler agrees and introduces Jensen Wang as the modern analog while expanding on the blank-canvas marketing challenge. | |
| Public Distrust and the Sam Altman Backlash | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | The host brings specific reporting observations regarding audience distrust in Sam Altman from recent podcast appearances. Siegler contextualizes the public backlash with corporate restructuring, layoffs versus capex spending, and privacy concerns. | |
| Finding AI's Champion Through Scientific Breakthroughs | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Kantrowitz cites DeepMind's documentary metrics and Demis Hassabis' focus on scientific breakthroughs as an effective public positioning strategy. Siegler agrees that the scientific angle offers a safer, more credible narrative than OpenAI's commercial pivoting. | |
| Mid-Episode Intermission and Corporate Strategy Setup | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | Kantrowitz pushes back on the stability of incumbent tech giants, noting that four out of the big five appear to be struggling three years into the AI cycle. Siegler details the complicated dynamics of cloud providers and model makers attempting to decouple. | |
| Native AI Products Versus Bolted-On Features | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | Kantrowitz demands to know what standout consumer AI product Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, or Meta have built from scratch, citing Altman's philosophy on native apps. Siegler reinforces the point by drawing historical parallels to mobile app transitions like Uber and Facebook's HTML5 error. | |
| 2026 Predictions on Apple's Foldable iPhone | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | The conversation shifts to 2026 hardware predictions, with Siegler breaking down how a creaseless foldable iPhone and Gemini-powered Siri could succeed. The exchange is lighthearted and speculative. | |
| Tim Cook Succession and Apple AI Leadership | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Both analyze reporting around Tim Cook's succession and Apple's executive AI leadership void. Kantrowitz shares firsthand reporting from an upcoming interview with Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch regarding acquisition rumors. | |
| Perplexity AI Acquisition Predictions and Search Moats | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Kantrowitz presents a bearish view on Perplexity, arguing that general chatbot assistants will commoditize standalone AI search engines. Siegler concurs that Perplexity faces narrowing strategic options and mounting acquisition pressure. |
Statements from this episode (19)
Siegler: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is the modern Steve Jobs
“The person who I think is most analogous to jobs in the current sort of day and age is Jensen Wang, which, you know, obviously is as you're talking about is, is more hardware and video is more hardware focused than software.”
Siegler: AI Job Displacement Will Be Felt Faster Than Past Tech Transitions
“Even if you don't believe that there is likely a world in which a lot of just jobs are displaced and a lot of jobs are lost because of this technology. And that's not necessarily, as we've talked about before, it's not necessarily new in the history of all tec…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Will Go Public as a Trillion-Dollar Company
“And he did, you know, he did take a nonprofit and turn it into, you know, it's going to be a trillion dollar IPO company.”
Siegler: OpenAI's product team and strategy have outperformed all AI rivals
“I do think like Sam and the open AI product team and strategy has done a better job than anyone else. You and I have talked about this a lot on AI. To date, I think Google has been catching up a bit and I think some of the others, as you know, Amazon and other…”
Siegler: No current AI leader will sell AI like Steve Jobs sold the iPhone
“None of these people, even they're interesting. They're successful in their own right, but I do not think that they're going to be the ones who are able to sell this the way that Steve jobs could sell an iPhone to the public.”
Siegler: Meta will announce its superintelligence model 'Avocado' within weeks
“We're probably a few weeks away, maybe less from whatever they're going to, you know, announce in terms of coming out of their new AGS super intelligence efforts, their avocado model.”
Siegler: Nvidia is the only real winner in Big Tech AI
“And so, you know, at the end of the day, the only real winner, as you can see by the way that the, where they are in the market is Nvidia.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta lack standout AI products
“What standout product does AI product does Microsoft have outside of selling AI services from Azure? What standout product does Amazon, AI product does Amazon have outside of selling some AI with AWS. What standout AI product does Apple have? We both know that…”
Siegler: Microsoft missed its chance to turn Bing into ChatGPT
“It was a huge missed opportunity. They could have made being a real potential competitor to Google and In some ways they, you know, they were probably too early, I'm sure. And they stubbed their toe and they pulled back... But still they were there and they co…”
Kantrowitz: AI will be more disruptive than expected, threatening Big Tech
“If AI works, it's going to be more disruptive than I think. A lot of people imagine, because if it's going to pose this threat to the incumbent tech companies who've, by the way, they're the one putting all these, this capex into the equation, then what does i…”
Siegler: Bolting AI onto existing products won't create trillion-dollar companies
“And so if you're just really tacking it onto your current products, that is not going to be what gets you to over the trillion dollar market cap pump or two trillion or three trillion, right? These companies that are out there right now that are sort of the su…”
Siegler: Apple's folding iPhone will be a big hit
“I think so. I mean, again, this is a little bit going against the grain because it does feel like that people are maybe not skeptical of it, but I know you and I've talked about it, right?”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook will likely step down as Apple CEO in 2026
“This is the last year, I think, for Tim Cook. Just, you know, not based off of any, anything more than reading the reports, but I think he's done.”
Siegler: Apple's next CEO will be John Ternus or Craig Federighi
“It has to be sort of between those two, between Ternus and Federighi. But everyone, you know, all the reporting points to Ternus. And so you have to believe that that's the thing.”
Siegler: Apple will not acquire Safe Superintelligence for tens of billions
“I don't think that they're going to do a deal. That's like, you know, the thirty billion dollar, 3040, fifty billion dollars that it would take to buy safe, super intelligence just to do that.”
Siegler: Apple will eventually develop in-house AI rather than rely on Google
“They now have the sort of bandaid stopgap. If you want to call it that a very good bandaid in the Google deal, but eventually Apple's going to want to own this and do this themselves. And so they need the right person. That they now have a years of runway than…”
Siegler: Samsung is the most likely acquirer of Perplexity AI
“I think the most likely one is Samsung for the obvious reasons that they have a big partnership with them”