frontier AI models

“On a per token basis. They're actually really smart, potentially as smart as Really smart humans. It's just that five minutes out, they lose their train of thought.”

“One thing that we see today with the models is that because all the benchmarks that were used today are what's called saturated, i.e., you know, in other words, like all the models do really well at the benchmarks, it's really hard to discern actually which on…”

“Two years from now, my guess is that we'll have models that cost of the same order of magnitude that they cost today, except they'll be much more capable of doing work, much more autonomously, much more broadly than they are capable of today.”

“How many, the upgrade cycles for these things are now compressing to now three-ish months. So every three months you have a new set of model weights, a new set of guardrails, a new set of bugs in the way the model behaves, the way it hallucinates or doesn't ha…”

“Now, it is also the case that it's not as simple as you can take the output to these models and distill and you have exactly the model of the same capability, It's just smaller and can run fast. If that were the case, we would just do that”

“Since this industry has kicked off, there's never been a moment where the delta between the, you know, the best model and the second best model was, like, more than maybe, like, a 10, 15% gap.”

“What the AISI has said is that the difference between the frontier and the Chinese models is about seven months, but I would argue that that underestimates it because the Chinese models that we see are under-trained. So that the internal Chinese capabilities a…”

“The most valuable time for that to happen is at the latest possible moment. Because then you would have the actual system that you're trying to align to work with.”