AI industry

21 statements across 19 episodes · 4 bullish · 9 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Feb 23, 2023 by Gary Marcus · across every show →

Everything said about AI industry, oldest first

Feb 23, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Marcus: AI deployment will not pause unless Congress steps in
“The bottom line is what's driving it, and it's not that likely, unless Congress steps in, that there will be a pause.”
Gary Marcus Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 52:28 Blake Lemoine and Gary Marcus Debate AI Chatbots
May 15, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
The AI industry treats Chatbot Arena pairwise comparisons almost as gospel
“And in fact, like the thing that people always look at in terms of model performance is this chat bot arena where they put two answers from different chat bots side by side and say, okay, well, which one is the best? And that's kind of, it seems janky, but it'…”
Alex Kantrowitz May 15, 2024 ▶ 5:46 AI Scaling, Alignment, and the Path to Superintelligence — With Dwarkesh Patel
Sep 13, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Senior AI Executives Command Compensation Packages of $1.5 Million Annually
“One kind of mid-tier AI startup was asked, so how much would you pay for, like, a senior AI kind of executive, and they said, it's Basically around over the course of four years, six million dollars. I've heard elsewhere, you know, two to three million dollars…”
Parmy Olson Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 36:39 Is OpenAI’s New “o1” Model The Big Step Forward We’ve Been Waiting For?
Nov 15, 2024 negative
Opinion
Roy: Over-funding foundational AI models instead of business applications is a mistake
“Over-raising for the R&D side of things rather than the actual, like, operationalization and building out businesses on top of the existing technology. I mean, again, we've debated this plenty. I think that is a huge mistake in that it actually, you know, pote…”
Ranjan Roy Nov 15, 2024 ▶ 8:58 Is Generative AI Plateauing?, Booming Bluesky, Apple’s Smart Glasses Play
Apr 2, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roy: AI Industry Faces a 2025 Reckoning and Falling User Numbers
“I think this year there's going to be a reckoning with it, that when you are promising too much, at a certain point, consumer fatigue is going to hit in. It's going to hit, and people, you might see those user numbers start dropping, and then you can actually …”
Ranjan Roy Apr 2, 2025 ▶ 39:16 OpenAI Raises $40 billion, Is AI a Letdown?, Musk Sells X to xAI
Jun 14, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Roy: AI Copyright Guidance or Resolution Will Arrive by Year-End 2025
“I, one of my predictions has been, like, we're gonna start to get some guidance or resolution, I think, by the end of this year, in terms of, like, how copyright will play out, and we need it.”
Ranjan Roy Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 51:44 Sam Altman’s Gentle Singularity, Zuck’s AI Power Play, Burning Of The Waymos
Jul 14, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Levie: No AI company maintains a technical breakthrough advantage over a year
“Within one year, every single breakthrough idea eventually gets discovered by everybody else. Like there's never, nobody has kept an advantage for more than a year on some secret idea that, that, that, that only they have.”
Aaron Levie Jul 14, 2025 ▶ 45:43 OpenAI’s Windsurf Crash, Grok’s Wild Week, Replace Tim Cook? — With Aaron Levie
Jul 28, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morris: Europe Risks Having No Meaningful AI Industry Due to Delays
“The concern in the other direction is that Europe will just fall so far behind these other countries. It won't have an AI industry that's meaningful in any sense. Which may already be the case.”
Stephen Morris Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 39:50 Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars
Sep 29, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Roy: AI slowdown would trigger tech unwind, not systemic financial crisis
“I don't think so. Mainly because exactly as you said a moment ago, it's still a concentrated group of companies that have benefited so far. So the actual unwind would still be within those companies. There's already been plenty of companies that have been, you…”
Ranjan Roy Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 16:08 OpenAI’s & NVIDIA's $100 Billion Marriage, Meta’s Sloppy Vibes, TikTok Deal Arrives?
Sep 29, 2025 bearish
Opinion
No clear revenue growth path justifies massive AI compute spending
“No one has tried to pretend that there's a clear revenue growth path to meet this. So it has to be from funding of some sort, and maybe people will keep plowing money into it, but it certainly, none of it adds up in a simple way.”
Ranjan Roy Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 8:37 OpenAI’s & NVIDIA's $100 Billion Marriage, Meta’s Sloppy Vibes, TikTok Deal Arrives?
Oct 4, 2025
Opinion
AI must automate significant white-collar work to justify current industry valuations
“My take on this would be ads will be part of it, but it has to be substantially more than ads. They have to end up automating a good chunk of white collar work to make the valuations work.”
Alex Kantrowitz Oct 4, 2025 ▶ 35:58 Sora 2 & AI’s Slop Era, Death Of The Creator Economy?, Apple’s SmartGlasses Roadmap
Oct 13, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: AI investments drive 40% of 2025 US GDP growth
“The hundreds of billions of dollars that companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40% share of the U.S. GDP growth this year. 40%. AI companies have accounted for 80% of gains in the U.S. Stocks so far in 2025, This is helping fund U.S. Gro…”
Alex Kantrowitz Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 29:51 AGI or Bust, OpenAI’s $1 Trillion Gamble, Apple’s Next CEO?
Nov 24, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roy: The AI infrastructure market is due for a significant shakeout
“I think we're definitely due for some kind of shakeout. Again, regular listeners will know I'm very bullish. I work in the AI industry. I am, I'm very bullish on generative AI, large language models as a whole. The way everything's like, you know, played out o…”
Ranjan Roy Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 44:10 Google Pushes OpenAI, Bezos Returns, AI’s No. 1 Hit
Dec 22, 2025 positive
Opinion
Roy: The AI Industry Realized in 2025 That Models Won't Solve Everything
“I think if one thing happened this year, I think more and more folks coming over to team products that models aren't going to solve everything.”
Ranjan Roy Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 19:54 OpenAI’s Potential, Google’s Speedy Model, Copilot Hits Turbulence
Mar 26, 2026 negative
Opinion
Warner: Government will probably screw up the AI workforce transition alone
“If government Defines us all. We'll probably screw it up. So you guys help us define what this transition looks like. Look at the training or reskilling, whatever tool we want to call it, but you also got to help pay for it because the costs of this are going …”
Senator Mark Warner Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 12:53 Senator Mark Warner: Nobody’s Ready for What AI Could Do To Us
Apr 1, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brockman: Everyone in AI Will Face Severe Compute Shortages This Year
“And I think that we will see even this year, how everyone who is participating is going to be compute strapped.”
Greg Brockman Apr 1, 2026 ▶ 59:39 OpenAI President Greg Brockman: AI Self-Improvement, The Superapp Bet, Path To AGI, Scaling Compute
May 7, 2026 bullish
Insight
Shevelenko: AI pricing will resemble Costco with memberships and compute credits
“AI is going to become a lot like Costco where you pay for the membership, right? And that gets you in the store. And that's actually the part of Costco's business that is, you know, the highest margin. And then you have, you know, everything you're buying in t…”
Dmitry Shevelenko May 7, 2026 ▶ 55:08 AI Agents: Mirage Or Real Revolution? — With Dmitry Shevelenko
May 11, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI compute demand growth will be linear rather than exponential
“I don't think it's necessarily exponential in the way everyone is looking at it right now. And the way these deals are being done, and the way people are chasing it, and again, when it benefits both parties involved, I do think that It can be more of a linear …”
Ranjan Roy May 11, 2026 ▶ 15:00 The Unlikely Anthropic & SpaceX Marriage, OpenAI Trial Revelations, AI Layoffs Or Cope?
Jun 26, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Kantrowitz: Tech Capex Will Hit $700 Billion This Year
“And we're going to see seven hundred billion dollars in capital expenditures this year”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 4:53 Big Technology AI Summit (full): Greg Brockman, Mike Krieger, Aaron Levie & Friends of The Podcast
Jun 26, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ranjan Roy: DeepSeek and Chinese models are now in almost every agent conversation
“The conversation around moving towards deep seek and adding it into your agentic process or adding Chinese models did not exist in any conversation I was in 12 months ago and now is in almost every conversation, at least as an option, because cost has become s…”
Ranjan Roy Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 1:56:23 Big Technology AI Summit (full): Greg Brockman, Mike Krieger, Aaron Levie & Friends of The Podcast
Sep 7, 2026 negative
Opinion
Roy: Apocalyptic AI warnings are marketing given Wall Street's IPO appetite
“To me, the central reason why I just cannot think it's not marketing is because it's, if this truly were the case, I don't how, understand how we as a society would not only do everything in our power to try to restrict these companies, I certainly would not i…”
Ranjan Roy Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 43:43 GPT-6 & OpenAI’s Comeback, Hugging Face Attack Debate, Ballmer’s Scandalous Legacy
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