The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baker: NVIDIA can become a top cloud computing company faster than expected
“I think Nvidia can join the frontier and become one of the world's largest cloud computing companies. Much faster than people think.”
Baker: xAI's Google deal yields higher profit per GW than competitors
“He shows that XAI's deal with Google for cloud computing generates more operating profit per gigawatt than Anthropic, than Meta, than Google, than OpenAI.”
Baker: Cursor and Anthropic hold more coding data than public web
“But my understanding is that Cursor and Anthropic have more tokens of proprietary coding data than anyone else, and they each have more tokens of proprietary coding data than exist on the public internet.”
Baker: Musk's Infrastructure Became the Fourth-Largest AI Hyperscaler
“In 30 days, we went from not being an AI hyperscaler to being number four, and we passed a lot of companies, including Oracle.”
Baker: Grok 4.3 was the most intelligent 500B parameter model in the world
“Grok 4.3 was on the Pareto frontier, and as of 10 or 12 days ago, and these things move fast, most intelligent, five hundred billion parameter model in the world. And they were on the frontier, and there are four companies on the frontier. XAI, SpaceX AI, Goog…”
Baker: Frontier AI Will Capture Most Revenue While Open Source Drives Token Volume
“The majority of economic value may continue to accrue to the frontier, and man has it ever accrued to the frontier thus far, and for sure the first six months this year, but the majority of tokens consumed in the world may be open source.”
Baker: NVIDIA is highly likely to dominate open-source AI
“I do think NVIDIA is highly likely to be the world's dominant provider of open source AI, and I do think Jensen will bring open source, you know, right now it's, whatever, six months behind the frontier. We might see it creep closer and closer and closer”
Baker: Annual AI inference revenue will finish the year well over $200B
“I think we end this year well over two hundred billion in inference revenue, well over.”
Baker: Musk builds data centers faster than anyone at 122 days
“We do know from Jensen that
Elon brings data centers up faster than anyone, a 122 days.”
Baker: Ground AI Data Centers Cost $60B Per Gigawatt Today
“It costs sixty billion dollars to put a gigawatt on the ground today. Yeah. And we'll call it 35 of that is, are the GPUs and the silicon that's doing the training and the inference, and twenty-five billion is the land, the shell, the power, and the cooling.”
Baker: Grok 4.5T parameter model is injecting Cursor data into pre-training
“The Grok 4.5 trillion parameter model is training. One would hypothesize based on scaling laws that that will might be a better base model. And then the cursor data is being injected into the pre-training process, not just reinforcement learning.”
Baker: All frontier AI model revenue will accrue to the Pareto curve
“And I do think being all revenue will accrue to the Pareto curve. All at least kind of frontier model revenue will accrue to the Pareto curve.”
Baker: AI token consumption slows during summers due to student seasonality
“AI has actually been seasonal for the last three summers. Token consumption is kind of plateaued, slowed down, and that's because, you know, college kids are big AI consumers, and they don't use as much AI, you know, hopefully they're all using it to learn and…”
Baker: $50B in Starlink Revenue Is 0.3% of Global Telecom TAM
“Fifty billion, that's, you know, 0.3% penetration of the global telecom market.”
Baker: SpaceX has offered employee liquidity every six months for 10 years
“I think another thing that's unprecedented here is the employees and to a large degree the investors here have had liquidity every six months. For like the last 10 years. So if you're a SpaceX employee or former employee and you wanted to sell, you've had, wha…”