The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 63 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nadella confirms Microsoft owns approximately 27% of OpenAI on diluted basis
“Yeah, it does. But I would say before even our stake in it, Brad, I think what's pretty unique about OpenAI is the fact that as part of OpenAI's process of restructuring, one of the largest nonprofit gets created.”
Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue
“Our investment of let's say that 13 and a half, which was all the training investment, that was not booked as revenue. That is the reason why we have the equity percentage. That's the reason why we have the 27% or a hundred and thirty-five billion. So that was…”
Gurley: Microsoft's OpenAI deal uses cloud credits to create cashless revenue
“It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft open AI deal where credits go in as A in kind investment. And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft cloud services. And in the, in that case, you k…”
Wu: OpenAI deployed o3 on an air-gapped Los Alamos supercomputer
“We actually did a custom on-prem deployment with them onto one of their supercomputers called Venado. And so this actually involves a bunch of, you know very bespoke work with some FDs also with a lot of our developer team. To actually bring one of our reasoni…”
Gurley: OpenAI will lose $7B this year, a burn rate Google avoids
“OpenAI is going to lose seven billion this year, and Google won't.”
Madra: Alibaba's 30-billion parameter Qwen model matches GPT-4o performance
“There was a release today of a Quen You know, thirty billion parameter model, which is performing as good as GPT-IV-O.”
Gerstner: ChatGPT will likely cross 1 billion weekly active users in 2025
“I think ChatGPT will cross a billion weeklies, like maybe this year you know, probably this year, I would guess.”
Madra: US open-source AI will hit the global top three by 2026
“I think if we look at Q four this year or Q one next year, I'd be willing to say, you know, that a top three worldwide model will be a U S based open source model.”
Gurley: OpenAI and Anthropic paid $10M annually before Meta's talent spree
“OpenAI, Anthropic, they were all paying people tons of money before Meta did this. They were paying them ten million a year, you know, maybe smaller than what you were talking about, but they were doing it.”
OpenAI is discussing launching an open-source model shortly, says Brad Gerstner
“OpenAI is talking about launching an open source model here shortly.”
Gerstner Predicts OpenAI Will Release an Open-Source Model by Summer 2025
“I do think you're going to see the open AI open source model. I mean, Sam's talked about it many times. I think you're going to see that in the next 30 days or so, certainly by the end of summer, but I would guess sooner rather than later.”
Gerstner: Abu Dhabi Announced 5GW AI Campus with Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle
“In Abu Dhabi, they announced a five gigawatt USAI, you know, it's a UAE USAI campus. It's an incredible architectural campus. It's in collaboration with NVIDIA and OpenAI and Oracle. And think of it as almost like a global Stargate. So to put that perspective,…”
Gurley: Leaked OpenAI forecasts show $20B annual losses in 2025 and 2026
“There was someone published the internal forecast of OpenAI, which included, I think, in 25 and 26, losing twenty billion each year.”
Gerstner: OpenAI and other frontier labs will open-source models in 2025
“Sam and the industry response seems to be tipping more in the direction where we're going to go open to. And my suspicion is you will see that this year you know, out of folks like open AI”
Gerstner: Google and OpenAI will launch superior coding agents in 2025
“I think you're going to see some pretty dramatic breakthroughs this year on coding, right? So think about all the startups that we've seen in the coding space. A lot of them have used prompt injection and other techniques in order to You know, kind of get thes…”
Patel: Broadcom holds custom ASIC wins with Meta, OpenAI, and Apple
“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”
Gerstner predicts SearchGPT will not reach one billion users
“I would say that search GPT I don't think is going to be the product that gets up to a billion users, and it reminds me, it takes me all the way back to a conversation you and I had maybe in episode four Which is what is going to be the next, you know, GPT mom…”
Gurley: OpenAI Reaches ~$2B, Anthropic ~$100M, and Perplexity ~$25M from Subscriptions
“Playing around with credit card data, I think OpenAI is about two billion Anthropics about a hundred million in perplexities at like twenty-five million.”
Gurley: OpenAI's 12-Month Subscription Retention Rate Is Around 35%
“On the 20 dollar thing, but at 12 months, the retention even in OpenAI is like 35%, so I doubt that anyone that is looking at that, even at two billion, Feels great about that as a durable business model”
Gerstner: Apple will partner with OpenAI, limiting features to newer iPhones
“I think they're going to have a series of announcements, you know, in terms of integrating with OpenAI. They're going to make the phone better. They're going to say, you can only get it on 15 plus or 16. They'll drive a replacement cycle into, you know, that b…”
Gerstner: GPT-5 will introduce early memory and agentic actions
“Like I think in GPT-V, it's not going to be the final state, but I think you're going to see the beginnings of memory and the beginnings of actions. Right. And this is, you know, months away and you and I have a bet on this.”
Gerstner: OpenAI has caused almost no share shift from AWS to Azure
“We've seen almost no share shift from AWS to Azure as a result of OpenAI.”
Turley: About 10% of the world currently uses ChatGPT
“We've got about 10% of the world coming to us now.”
Turley: AI demand and token consumption increase despite falling prices
“When you just look at token consumption per user especially in the enterprise too, which is, you know a massive opportunity. You see a lot of very GPU hungry, hungry workflows, and yes, demand keeps going up even as prices go down.”
Altman: Cost per unit of intelligence has dropped roughly 40x annually
“This unbelievable reduction in cost per unit of intelligence, let's say it's been averaging like 40 X for a given level per year”
Gerstner: OpenAI has a $250B Azure compute commitment with Microsoft
“You have the profit you make off the two hundred and fifty billion dollar of the Azure compute commitment from OpenAI.”
Gerstner: California AG will not object to OpenAI restructuring
“The California attorney general said they're not going to object to it.”
Gerstner: OpenAI revenue share sends billions annually to Microsoft
“So, you have the value in the rev share, billions per year going, going to Microsoft.”
Gerstner: OpenAI non-profit is capitalized with $130 billion in stock
“The nonprofit is already capitalized with a hundred and thirty billion dollars, a hundred and thirty billion dollars. Of open AI stock.”
Huang: OCI, OpenAI, and SoftBank have contracted 5 to 7 gigawatts
“The second is the OCI build out. And I think there's some five, six, seven gigawatts about to be built out. And so working with OCI and OpenAI and SoftBank to build that out. Those projects are contracted.”
Wu: Los Alamos OpenAI supercomputer deployment is shared with Lawrence Livermore and Sandia
“The other cool thing is it's actually being shared between Los Alamos and some of the other labs Lawrence Livermore Sandia as well because it, it's the supercomputer setup where they can all kind of connect with it remotely.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Hit 1 Billion Daily Searches 8 Years Faster Than Google
“Open AI reached you know, four hundred billion annual searches, eight years faster than Google. Right? So they're doing over a billion searches a day now.”
Gurley: DeepSeek is pricing API inference at one-twentieth of OpenAI
“If you look at the models that are apples to apples on the API right now, that, that DeepSeq's pricing about one-twentieth of OpenAI.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Is Already Running Workloads Out of Abilene Facility
“Larry said at the press conference, They have 10 buildings already built in Abilene. They have another 10 under construction, and we know that OpenAI is already running workloads out of Abilene, Texas, which is where this mega project's going to be built, and …”
Haas: OpenAI will have operational control of the Stargate project
“And the operational control will be from OpenAI. So they'll, they'll call the shots relative to all the things relative to the operation.”
Patel: Microsoft runs GPT models on AMD hardware for inference
“Microsoft has deployed GPT-style models on On other competitors' hardware, such as AMD they've, and some of their own, but mostly AMD, and so they can wring that out with software because they can spend hundreds of engineers, dozens of engineers' hours hundred…”
Patel: GPT-4 cost hundreds of millions to train, generates billions in revenue
“Hundreds of millions of dollars to train GPT-IV. And it's generating billions of dollars of revenue.”
Nadella: OpenAI Briefly Used GCP Before Returning to Microsoft for Transformers
“The first time yeah, actually, Elon and Sam, they were looking for, obviously, Azure credits, and what have you, and we gave them some credits, and that time, they were more into RL, and Dota II, and what have you, and that was interesting and then we stopped …”
Gerstner: OpenAI achieved escape velocity with $4B revenue and $10.5B capital
“Don't forget this company, you know, is, has over four billion in revenue scaling. Probably most people think to ten billion plus in revenue. Over the course of the next year, they just raised six and a half billion. They got a four billion dollar line of cred…”
Gerstner: OpenAI has 250M weekly users, double Google at IPO
“They have two hundred and fifty million, yeah, two hundred and fifty million weekly average users, which we estimate is twice the amount Google had at the time of its IPO.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Has Generated $3 Billion in Real Customer Spend
“To the tune of, you know, three billion dollars, OpenAI has people reaching in their pockets and paying real money, including myself, for their service.”
Nadella: Microsoft cannot lose more than $13.5B invested in OpenAI
“If you've invested, let's call it, 13 and a half billion dollars, you can, of course, lose 13 and a half billion dollars. But you can't lose more than 13 and a half billion dollars. At least the last time I checked, that's what you have at risk.”
Godement: OpenAI models power live voice support features in T-Mobile app
“And so we've been working with T-Mobile pretty much for the past year at that point to basically automate like not only like text support but also voice support. And so today, like, you know, there are like features like in the T-Mobile app That if you call, a…”