| 1% | “one percent” | Fox: Starlink Penetrates Under 1% of Global Households | Andrew Fox | Jun 11, 2026 | Supported |
| 50B | “Fifty billion” | Baker: $50B in Starlink Revenue Is 0.3% of Global Telecom TAM | Gavin Baker | Jun 11, 2026 | Contradicted |
| 0.3% | “0.3%” | Baker: $50B in Starlink Revenue Is 0.3% of Global Telecom TAM | Gavin Baker | Jun 11, 2026 | Contradicted |
| $5B | “five billion dollars” | Fox: Orbital Compute CapEx Is $5B/GW vs $20-25B Terrestrially | Andrew Fox | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 25B | “twenty five billion” | Fox: Orbital Compute CapEx Is $5B/GW vs $20-25B Terrestrially | Andrew Fox | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| $60B | “sixty billion dollars” | Baker: Ground AI Data Centers Cost $60B Per Gigawatt Today | Gavin Baker | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 25B | “twenty-five billion” | Baker: Ground AI Data Centers Cost $60B Per Gigawatt Today | Gavin Baker | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| $10B | “ten billion dollars” | Gerstner: Altimeter projected Cursor could exit the year at $10B revenue | Brad Gerstner | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 4.5T | “4.5 trillion” | Baker: Grok 4.5T parameter model is injecting Cursor data into pre-training | Gavin Baker | Jun 11, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 500B | “five hundred billion” | Baker: Grok 4.3 was the most intelligent 500B parameter model in the world | Gavin Baker | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 1.5T | “1.5 trillion” | Gerstner: Global AI CapEx will approach $1.5 trillion in 2027 | Brad Gerstner | Jun 11, 2026 | Open |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | Baker: Annual AI inference revenue will finish the year well over $200B | Gavin Baker | Jun 11, 2026 | Open |
| 20B | “twenty billion” | Tang: AI monetization per gigawatt rose from $20B to $30B–$40B | Clark Tang | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 16% | “16%” | Gerstner: Software and Internet Lagged While AI Lifted SPY and NASDAQ | Brad Gerstner | Jun 11, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 8% | “eight percent” | Gerstner: Software and Internet Lagged While AI Lifted SPY and NASDAQ | Brad Gerstner | Jun 11, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 1T | “one trillion” | Gerstner: Mag-Seven added $1T revenue and $17T market cap in 7 years | Brad Gerstner | Jun 11, 2026 | Supported |
| 17T | “17 trillion” | Gerstner: Mag-Seven added $1T revenue and $17T market cap in 7 years | Brad Gerstner | Jun 11, 2026 | Supported |
| 10% | “10%” | Turley: About 10% of the world currently uses ChatGPT | Nick Turley | Mar 15, 2026 | Supported |
| 95% | “95%” | Jain: 95% enterprise AI failure rate is desirable for tech experimentation | Arvind Jain | Dec 23, 2025 | — |
| $400B | “four hundred billion dollars” | Agrawal: Global software industry generates roughly $400 billion in annual revenue | Apoorv Agrawal | Dec 23, 2025 | Contradicted |
| 25× | “25 times” | Jain: AI will capture massive revenue from the 25x larger services market | Arvind Jain | Dec 23, 2025 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Jain: Proactive AI will expand power-user adoption to 100% | Arvind Jain | Dec 23, 2025 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Jain: Proactive AI will expand power-user adoption to 100% | Arvind Jain | Dec 23, 2025 | — |
| $30B | “thirty billion dollars” | Gerstner: OpenAI non-profit is capitalized with $130 billion in stock | Brad Gerstner | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 25B | “twenty five billion” | Gerstner: OpenAI announced directing first $25B of nonprofit to health and security | Brad Gerstner | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 10× | “10 X” | Altman: OpenAI scaled compute roughly 10x over the past year | Sam Altman | Oct 31, 2025 | — |
| 10× | “10 X” | Altman: 10x more compute would yield near 10x revenue for OpenAI | Sam Altman | Oct 31, 2025 | — |
| 40× | “40 X” | Altman: Cost per unit of intelligence has dropped roughly 40x annually | Sam Altman | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| $1B | “a billion dollars” | Nadella: Bill Gates was skeptical of Microsoft's initial $1B OpenAI investment | Satya Nadella | Oct 31, 2025 | — |
| 50B | “fifty billion” | Gerstner: OpenAI has a $250B Azure compute commitment with Microsoft | Brad Gerstner | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| $1.5B | “a half billion dollars” | Nadella: Microsoft cannot lose more than $13.5B invested in OpenAI | Satya Nadella | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| $35B | “thirty five billion dollars” | Nadella: Microsoft does not plan to sell its OpenAI stake | Satya Nadella | Oct 31, 2025 | — |
| 400B | “four hundred billion” | Nadella: Microsoft's $400B RPO Backlog Averages Two-Year Duration | Satya Nadella | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 35B | “thirty-five billion” | Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue | Satya Nadella | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 27% | “27%” | Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue | Satya Nadella | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 5.2× | “5.2 times” | Gerstner: Public software multiples are at 5.2x forward revenue vs. 7x average | Brad Gerstner | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 7× | “seven times” | Gerstner: Public software multiples are at 5.2x forward revenue vs. 7x average | Brad Gerstner | Oct 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 56B | “fifty six billion” | Gerstner: Magnificent Five capital expenditures jumped from $156B to $379B | Brad Gerstner | Oct 14, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 79B | “seventy nine billion” | Gerstner: Magnificent Five capital expenditures jumped from $156B to $379B | Brad Gerstner | Oct 14, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 50B | “fifty billion” | Gerstner: OpenAI deals imply $150B in CapEx by 2030 | Brad Gerstner | Oct 14, 2025 | — |
| $50B | “fifty billion dollars” | Gerstner: OpenAI generating $150B in 2030 revenue is 'more than plausible' | Brad Gerstner | Oct 14, 2025 | — |
| 50B | “fifty billion” | Gerstner: OpenAI generating $150B in 2030 revenue is 'more than plausible' | Brad Gerstner | Oct 14, 2025 | — |
| $300B | “three hundred billion dollars” | Gerstner: Total stablecoin supply has surpassed $300 billion | Brad Gerstner | Oct 14, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 15B | “fifteen billion” | Gerstner: Circle and Tether issue $15B monthly, becoming top Treasury buyers | Brad Gerstner | Oct 14, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 65M | “sixty-five million” | Gerstner: 65M children qualify for Invest America accounts, $1,000 for under-twos | Brad Gerstner | Oct 14, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Gerstner: 65M children qualify for Invest America accounts, $1,000 for under-twos | Brad Gerstner | Oct 14, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 40% | “40%” | Gerstner: Over 40% of NVIDIA's revenue comes from AI inference workloads | Brad Gerstner | Sep 26, 2025 | Supported |
| 1B | “a billion” | Huang: Inference Compute Demand Will Surge One Billion Times | Jensen Huang | Sep 26, 2025 | — |
| 8% | “Eight percent” | Gerstner: Wall Street consensus projects NVIDIA growth dropping to 8% in 2027 | Brad Gerstner | Sep 26, 2025 | Contradicted |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Huang: 100% of NVIDIA engineers and chip designers use AI agents | Jensen Huang | Sep 26, 2025 | — |
| $5T | “five trillion dollars” | Huang: $5 trillion annual global AI infrastructure CapEx is economically plausible | Jensen Huang | Sep 26, 2025 | — |
| 10× | “10 X” | Huang: Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu plans to 10x data center power by 2030 | Jensen Huang | Sep 26, 2025 | Supported |
| $1T | “a trillion dollars” | Huang: Startups should capture entire nascent markets rather than entering mature ones | Jensen Huang | Sep 26, 2025 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Huang: Startups should capture entire nascent markets rather than entering mature ones | Jensen Huang | Sep 26, 2025 | — |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Gerstner: NVIDIA will likely be the first $10 trillion company | Brad Gerstner | Sep 26, 2025 | Open |
| 95% | “95%” | Huang: Nvidia previously held 95% AI chip market share in China | Jensen Huang | Sep 26, 2025 | Supported |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Gerstner: Tech will produce $10T companies and probably trillionaire individuals | Brad Gerstner | Sep 26, 2025 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Gerstner: Tech will produce $10T companies and probably trillionaire individuals | Brad Gerstner | Sep 26, 2025 | Open |
| 800M | “eight hundred million” | Huang: OpenAI has 800 million active users | Jensen Huang | Sep 26, 2025 | Supported |
| 5× | “five times” | Wu: GPT-5 enables single-generation code completions in the Codex CLI | Sherwin Wu | Sep 11, 2025 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Gerstner: 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China | Brad Gerstner | Aug 28, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 4M | “four million” | Gurley: BYD is world's largest EV maker producing four million vehicles | Bill Gurley | Aug 28, 2025 | Supported |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Gurley: Xiaomi's EV Factory Produces 1,000 Cars Daily With 2,000 Workers | Bill Gurley | Aug 28, 2025 | Supported |
| 14% | “14%” | Gerstner: US Represents Only 14% of China's Exports and 3% of GDP | Brad Gerstner | Aug 28, 2025 | Supported |
| 3% | “three percent” | Gerstner: US Represents Only 14% of China's Exports and 3% of GDP | Brad Gerstner | Aug 28, 2025 | Supported |
| 70B | “seventy billion” | Gurley: Baidu Trades at Zero Enterprise Value Despite Apollo Robotaxi Asset | Bill Gurley | Aug 28, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 31B | “a thirty billion” | Gurley: Baidu Trades at Zero Enterprise Value Despite Apollo Robotaxi Asset | Bill Gurley | Aug 28, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 30B | “thirty billion” | Gurley: Baidu Trades at Zero Enterprise Value Despite Apollo Robotaxi Asset | Bill Gurley | Aug 28, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 5× | “five times” | Gerstner: US nuclear fission reactors cost 4x to 5x more to build | Brad Gerstner | Aug 28, 2025 | — |
| 20M | “twenty million” | Gurley: Shenzhen entrepreneurial energy remains high despite reports of startup slump | Bill Gurley | Aug 28, 2025 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Gurley: Around 50% of US AI Researchers Are Chinese | Bill Gurley | Aug 28, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 400M | “four hundred million” | Gerstner: Alibaba's Qwen open-source model surpassed 400M downloads | Brad Gerstner | Jul 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 30B | “thirty billion” | Madra: Alibaba's 30-billion parameter Qwen model matches GPT-4o performance | Sunny Madra | Jul 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 90% | “90%” | Madra: Chinese open-source AI offers 90% of top quality at 90% discount | Sunny Madra | Jul 31, 2025 | Supported |
| 5T | “five trillion” | Madra: Google's monthly AI token volume exploded 200x to 1 quadrillion | Sunny Madra | Jul 31, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Madra: Google's monthly AI token volume exploded 200x to 1 quadrillion | Sunny Madra | Jul 31, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 200× | “200 X” | Madra: Google's monthly AI token volume exploded 200x to 1 quadrillion | Sunny Madra | Jul 31, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 6B | “a five billion” | Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation | Brad Gerstner | Jul 31, 2025 | Held up |
| 70B | “seventy billion” | Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation | Brad Gerstner | Jul 31, 2025 | Held up |
| 7B | “seven billion” | Gurley: OpenAI will lose $7B this year, a burn rate Google avoids | Bill Gurley | Jul 31, 2025 | Held up |
| 1B | “a billion” | Gerstner: ChatGPT will likely cross 1 billion weekly active users in 2025 | Brad Gerstner | Jul 31, 2025 | Didn’t hold up |
| 10× | “10 X” | Gurley: In the 1990s, Dell's ROIC was 10x the PC industry | Bill Gurley | Jul 10, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Gerstner: Invest America Act seeds $1,000 S&P 500 accounts for newborns | Brad Gerstner | Jul 10, 2025 | Supported |
| 65M | “sixty five million” | Gerstner: Only children born after Jan 1, 2025 receive $1,000 Treasury seed | Brad Gerstner | Jul 10, 2025 | Supported |
| 10M | “ten million” | Gurley: OpenAI and Anthropic paid $10M annually before Meta's talent spree | Bill Gurley | Jul 10, 2025 | Partly supported |
| $40B | “forty billion dollars” | Gerstner: Frontier AI model companies need tens of billions in annual revenue to survive | Brad Gerstner | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| 98% | “98%” | Dell: AI productivity gains will be far bigger than the PC's | Michael Dell | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| $12.1B | “12.1 billion dollars” | Dell: We Received $12.1B in Q1 AI Orders, Have $14B Backlog | Michael Dell | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| $10B | “ten billion dollars” | Dell: We Received $12.1B in Q1 AI Orders, Have $14B Backlog | Michael Dell | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| 12B | “twelve billion” | Dell: We Received $12.1B in Q1 AI Orders, Have $14B Backlog | Michael Dell | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| 10B | “ten billion” | Dell: We Received $12.1B in Q1 AI Orders, Have $14B Backlog | Michael Dell | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| 58% | “58%” | Dell: We Received $12.1B in Q1 AI Orders, Have $14B Backlog | Michael Dell | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| 22M | “twenty-two million” | Dell: Dell Technologies repurchased 22 million shares during recent market dip | Michael Dell | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | The winning AI company will reach a $5T to $10T valuation | Brad Gerstner | Jun 21, 2025 | — |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | The winning AI company will reach a $5T to $10T valuation | Brad Gerstner | Jun 21, 2025 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Gerstner: Tech expanded from 5% to 15% of global GDP | Brad Gerstner | Jun 20, 2025 | Supported |
| 15% | “15%” | Gerstner: Tech expanded from 5% to 15% of global GDP | Brad Gerstner | Jun 20, 2025 | Supported |
| 80% | “80%” | Thomas Laffont: Public market institutions avoid assets with 70–80% downside risk | Thomas Laffont | Jun 20, 2025 | — |
| 100M | “a hundred million” | Philippe Laffont: Coatue processes 100 million credit card receipts daily | Philippe Laffont | Jun 20, 2025 | — |
| 4% | “four percent” | Philippe Laffont: ChatGPT subscribers reduce Google page views by 8% to 11% | Philippe Laffont | Jun 20, 2025 | — |
| 8% | “eight percent” | Philippe Laffont: ChatGPT subscribers reduce Google page views by 8% to 11% | Philippe Laffont | Jun 20, 2025 | — |
| 0.5% | “half percent” | Laffont: 2.5%–3.5% Productivity Growth Can Lower US Debt-to-GDP | Philippe Laffont | Jun 20, 2025 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Laffont: The 2021 IPO cohort is down 50% five years later | Thomas Laffont | Jun 20, 2025 | Supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Laffont: The 2021 IPO cohort is down 50% five years later | Thomas Laffont | Jun 20, 2025 | Supported |
| 31B | “a thirty billion” | Gerstner: Meta is buying 49% of an AI startup for $15B | Brad Gerstner | Jun 20, 2025 | Supported |
| 15B | “fifteen billion” | Gerstner: Meta is buying 49% of an AI startup for $15B | Brad Gerstner | Jun 20, 2025 | Supported |
| 49% | “49%” | Gerstner: Meta is buying 49% of an AI startup for $15B | Brad Gerstner | Jun 20, 2025 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Gerstner: Mag-7 revenue grew 20% compounded while OpEx grew 2% | Brad Gerstner | Jun 20, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 2% | “two percent” | Gerstner: Mag-7 revenue grew 20% compounded while OpEx grew 2% | Brad Gerstner | Jun 20, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 35% | “35%” | Thomas Laffont: AppLovin doubled revenue while cutting headcount over 35% | Thomas Laffont | Jun 20, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 3× | “three X” | Gerstner: Jensen Huang plans to triple Nvidia's size using AI agents | Brad Gerstner | Jun 20, 2025 | — |
| 25% | “25%” | Laffont: Profitable companies growing over 25% should prepare for an IPO | Thomas Laffont | Jun 20, 2025 | — |
| $100M | “a hundred million dollars” | Gurley: Low-growth $50M–$100M companies must increase risk rather than protect multiples | Bill Gurley | Jun 20, 2025 | — |
| 400B | “four hundred billion” | Gerstner: OpenAI Hit 1 Billion Daily Searches 8 Years Faster Than Google | Brad Gerstner | Jun 6, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 1B | “a billion” | Gerstner: OpenAI Hit 1 Billion Daily Searches 8 Years Faster Than Google | Brad Gerstner | Jun 6, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Gerstner: 40% to 50% of Top US AI Researchers Are Chinese | Brad Gerstner | Jun 6, 2025 | Supported |
| $2T | “two trillion dollars” | Gerstner: Cutting $2T in single year would trigger US recession | Brad Gerstner | Jun 6, 2025 | — |
| 5T | “a four trillion” | Gerstner: Failing to pass reconciliation bill causes $4T tax hike | Brad Gerstner | Jun 6, 2025 | — |
| 15% | “15%” | Gerstner: Stock market will drop 10-15% if policy deals fail | Brad Gerstner | Jun 6, 2025 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Gerstner: Stock Market Has Bounced 20% in Last 20 Trading Days | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Gerstner: US Secured Trillion-Dollar Investment Deals With Saudi, Qatar, UAE | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 1.5M | “a half million” | Gerstner: Abu Dhabi Announced 5GW AI Campus with Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | Supported |
| $2T | “two trillion dollars” | Gerstner: $2T in tariffs is a 600-700 bps GDP headwind | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Gerstner: $2T in tariffs is a 600-700 bps GDP headwind | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | — |
| 300B | “three hundred billion” | Gerstner: Targeted tariffs generate roughly $300B in revenue | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | — |
| 77B | “seventy seven billion” | Gerstner: Targeted tariffs generate roughly $300B in revenue | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Gerstner: Targeted tariffs generate roughly $300B in revenue | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | — |
| 15% | “15%” | Gerstner: Targeted tariffs generate roughly $300B in revenue | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Gerstner: Targeted tariffs generate roughly $300B in revenue | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | — |
| 300B | “three hundred billion” | Gerstner: Foreign producers absorb half of US tariff costs | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | — |
| $200B | “two hundred billion dollars” | Gerstner: Reconciliation bill will likely increase the US federal deficit | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | Held up |
| $50B | “fifty billion dollars” | Gerstner: US defense budget increases by $150B to roughly $1T | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | Supported |
| $1T | “a trillion dollars” | Gerstner: US defense budget increases by $150B to roughly $1T | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | Supported |
| 7× | “seven times” | Gurley: Delaware Court Legal Fee Multipliers Far Exceed Federal Courts | Bill Gurley | May 22, 2025 | Supported |
| 10× | “10 times” | Gurley: Delaware Court Legal Fee Multipliers Far Exceed Federal Courts | Bill Gurley | May 22, 2025 | Supported |
| 23× | “23 times” | Gurley: Delaware Court Legal Fee Multipliers Far Exceed Federal Courts | Bill Gurley | May 22, 2025 | Supported |
| 57× | “57 times” | Gurley: Delaware Court Legal Fee Multipliers Far Exceed Federal Courts | Bill Gurley | May 22, 2025 | Supported |
| 55% | “55%” | Gurley: Two Delaware Judges Account for 55% of Super-High Fee Multipliers | Bill Gurley | May 22, 2025 | Supported |
| 3% | “three percent” | Gurley: Texas SB 29 Allows 3% Ownership Threshold for Derivative Actions | Bill Gurley | May 22, 2025 | Supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Gerstner: Around 50% of US AI researchers are Chinese | Brad Gerstner | May 22, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 140% | “140%” | Gerstner: US Has Effective Embargo on China via 140% Tariffs | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | — |
| 15% | “15%” | Gerstner: Markets have dropped 15% since April 2nd tariff announcements | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | Contradicted |
| 4× | “four X” | Gurley: South Korea, China build nuclear power at one-fourth US cost | Bill Gurley | Apr 24, 2025 | Supported |
| 60% | “60%” | Gerstner: China mines 60% and refines 90% of critical rare earths | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | Supported |
| 90% | “90%” | Gerstner: China mines 60% and refines 90% of critical rare earths | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | Supported |
| $15B | “fifteen billion dollars” | Gerstner: Banning Nvidia H20 exports increases US trade deficit by $15B | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | — |
| 15B | “fifteen billion” | Gerstner: Nvidia H20 chip sales generate $2B to $3B in US tax revenue | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | — |
| $9B | “nine billion dollars” | Gerstner: Nvidia H20 chip sales generate $2B to $3B in US tax revenue | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | — |
| $3B | “three billion dollars” | Gerstner: Nvidia H20 chip sales generate $2B to $3B in US tax revenue | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | — |
| $200B | “two hundred billion dollars” | Gerstner: US tariffs will settle at 5-10% globally, 25-30% on China | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | Partly held up |
| 10% | “10%” | Gerstner: US tariffs will settle at 5-10% globally, 25-30% on China | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | Partly held up |
| 30% | “30%” | Gerstner: US tariffs will settle at 5-10% globally, 25-30% on China | Brad Gerstner | Apr 24, 2025 | Partly held up |
| 54% | “54%” | Gerstner: Enacted US Tariffs on China Will Not Land at 54% | Brad Gerstner | Apr 4, 2025 | Held up |
| 400B | “four hundred billion” | Gerstner: US tariffs will ultimately settle around $300B to $400B | Brad Gerstner | Apr 4, 2025 | Didn’t hold up |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Gerstner: US tariffs will ultimately settle around $300B to $400B | Brad Gerstner | Apr 4, 2025 | Didn’t hold up |
| 700M | “seven hundred million” | Gurley: Meta restricts free Llama usage for apps over 700M users | Bill Gurley | Apr 4, 2025 | Supported |
| 500B | “a four hundred billion” | Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will launch in April 2025 with 400B parameters | Brad Gerstner | Apr 4, 2025 | Partly held up |
| 10M | “ten million” | Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will launch in April 2025 with 400B parameters | Brad Gerstner | Apr 4, 2025 | Partly held up |
| 90% | “90%” | Gerstner: ChatGPT commands an 80% to 90% consumer AI market share | Brad Gerstner | Apr 4, 2025 | — |
| 60% | “60%” | Gerstner: 60% of ByteDance Shareholders Are US Investors | Brad Gerstner | Apr 4, 2025 | Supported |
| 90% | “90%” | Gerstner: 90% of ByteDance's Business Is Outside TikTok US | Brad Gerstner | Apr 4, 2025 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Gerstner: NASDAQ Down ~10% Since February 2025 With Components Down 20-30% | Brad Gerstner | Mar 21, 2025 | Supported |
| 30% | “30%” | Gerstner: NASDAQ Down ~10% Since February 2025 With Components Down 20-30% | Brad Gerstner | Mar 21, 2025 | Supported |
| 65B | “sixty-five billion” | Gerstner: Targeting $1T in Tariffs Would Cause a US Recession | Brad Gerstner | Mar 21, 2025 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Gerstner: Targeting $1T in Tariffs Would Cause a US Recession | Brad Gerstner | Mar 21, 2025 | Open |
| 30% | “30%” | Gerstner: Wiz Deal Valued at 30x Revenue vs. Public SaaS 6-7x | Brad Gerstner | Mar 21, 2025 | — |
| 7× | “seven times” | Gerstner: Wiz Deal Valued at 30x Revenue vs. Public SaaS 6-7x | Brad Gerstner | Mar 21, 2025 | — |
| 30× | “30 times” | Gerstner: Wiz Deal Valued at 30x Revenue vs. Public SaaS 6-7x | Brad Gerstner | Mar 21, 2025 | — |
| 1.3M | “1.3 million” | Gerstner: Nvidia has 3.6M Blackwell GPU orders from top 4 US CSPs | Brad Gerstner | Mar 21, 2025 | Supported |
| 3.6M | “3.6 million” | Gerstner: Nvidia has 3.6M Blackwell GPU orders from top 4 US CSPs | Brad Gerstner | Mar 21, 2025 | Supported |
| 3× | “three times” | Gurley: Negative-Margin Startups Subsidize Compute and Triple-Count AI Industry Revenue | Bill Gurley | Mar 21, 2025 | — |
| 99% | “99%” | Gerstner: Winning consumer AI platform will capture 70% to 80% market share | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Gerstner: Winning consumer AI platform will capture 70% to 80% market share | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Gerstner: Public companies report Google organic clicks down 20-40% YTD | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Supported |
| 80% | “80%” | Gerstner: ChatGPT cannibalized 80% of my Google search activity | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | — |
| $1T | “a trillion dollars” | Gerstner: Letting ChatGPT launch first was Google's mortal sin | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | — |
| 10× | “10 X” | Gerstner: Letting ChatGPT launch first was Google's mortal sin | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | — |
| 100× | “hundred X” | Gerstner: Letting ChatGPT launch first was Google's mortal sin | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | — |
| 20B | “twenty billion” | Gurley: Leaked OpenAI forecasts show $20B annual losses in 2025 and 2026 | Bill Gurley | Mar 2, 2025 | Contradicted |
| 80% | “80%” | Gerstner: Microsoft is spending 80% of free cash flow on CapEx | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Supported |
| 20× | “20 X” | Gurley: Price difference between current and older AI models is 20x | Bill Gurley | Mar 2, 2025 | — |
| $56B | “fifty six billion dollars” | Gerstner: US collected $56 billion in tariffs last year | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Contradicted |
| 50% | “50%” | Gerstner: DOGE will downsize federal government by 40% to 50% | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Open |
| 30B | “thirty billion” | Gerstner: Clinton downsized government by 10-20% and reached $230B surplus | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Gerstner: Clinton downsized government by 10-20% and reached $230B surplus | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Supported |
| 500B | “five hundred billion” | Gerstner: US will cut $500B to $1T from federal spending over next few years | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Open |
| $1T | “a trillion dollars” | Gerstner: US will cut $500B to $1T from federal spending over next few years | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Open |
| 15% | “15%” | Gerstner: Public markets could see a 10% to 15% drawdown from slowing growth | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Gerstner: Government airline ticket sales at one major carrier are down 50% YTD | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | — |
| 3% | “three percent” | Gerstner: China buys just 3% of US treasuries, down from 12% | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 12% | “12%” | Gerstner: China buys just 3% of US treasuries, down from 12% | Brad Gerstner | Mar 2, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 6M | “six million” | Gerstner: DeepSeek's training run was up to 50% more efficient than o1 | Brad Gerstner | Feb 5, 2025 | — |
| 15M | “fifteen million” | Gerstner: DeepSeek's training run was up to 50% more efficient than o1 | Brad Gerstner | Feb 5, 2025 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Gerstner: DeepSeek's training run was up to 50% more efficient than o1 | Brad Gerstner | Feb 5, 2025 | — |
| 3× | “three X” | Gerstner: Export controls will prevent DeepSeek from keeping pace with OpenAI | Brad Gerstner | Feb 5, 2025 | — |
| $1T | “a trillion dollars” | Gerstner: A credible $1T budget cut plan will bring interest rates down | Brad Gerstner | Feb 5, 2025 | — |
| 99% | “99%” | Gurley: A US sovereign wealth fund has a 99% chance of being raided | Bill Gurley | Feb 5, 2025 | — |
| 80B | “eighty billion” | Gurley: Microsoft leads tech capex at roughly $80 billion per year | Bill Gurley | Jan 23, 2025 | Supported |
| 4B | “a three billion” | Gerstner: Stargate's 2025 Buildout Needs Only ~$3B in Equity | Brad Gerstner | Jan 23, 2025 | — |
| 2B | “two billion” | Gerstner: Deploying two million GPUs requires about 2.7 gigawatts of power | Brad Gerstner | Jan 23, 2025 | Supported |
BG2LEDGER All shows Try the podcast clipper →