United States

also referred to as: the us · u s · us

66 statements across 19 episodes · 15 bullish · 31 bearish · 7 people on the record · first statement Feb 8, 2024 by Aaron Levie · said 684 times in 41 episodes since 2024 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Brad Gerstner (429), Bill Gurley (199), Clark Tang (14), Ronald Reagan (7), Michael Dell (7), Aaron Levie (6), Satya Nadella (3), Maureen Zawalnik (3)

tap a year for its mentions
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2026 7 mentions in 2 episodes 4 per episode
2025 479 mentions in 19 episodes 25 per episode
2024 198 mentions in 20 episodes 10 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about United States, oldest first

Feb 8, 2024
Assertion Supported
Levie: US H-1B visa quota has stayed at 85,000 for 20 years
“It's basically 85,000 a year, and it's been that way for, you know, 20 years.”
Aaron Levie Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 1:19:16 BG2 with Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & Aaron Levie | Software Valuations, Earnings, Immigration | E02 · Bg2 Pod
Feb 22, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Gurley: Reshoring competitive semiconductor fabs to the US will not happen
“And to think you're going to re-onshore a fab and ignore Morris Chang is just kind of crazy to me. And I look at the Requirements, once again, that we put on companies around labor and say to myself, it's not going to happen here.”
Bill Gurley Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 1:05:43 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Mar 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Banning open-source AI would cause the US to lose to China
“The one thing that would cause us to get way behind China is if we played without open source and they had it like us.”
Bill Gurley Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 47:28 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: There is a real chance TikTok shuts down within 18 months
“So I think there's a real chance that when we're looking at this, 12 to 18 months from now, that it's an absolute no go, that they can't find a middle ground and that the app is shut down.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 21, 2024 ▶ 1:07:29 Ep5. Stock Comp, AI Cold War, Valuations for LLM | BG2 with Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Bob Mylod · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: China will retaliate if TikTok US is shut down or banned
“It's hard for me to see a world where TikTok US is shut down or banned, where there's not some response by China.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 21, 2024 ▶ 1:08:05 Ep5. Stock Comp, AI Cold War, Valuations for LLM | BG2 with Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Bob Mylod · Bg2 Pod
Apr 4, 2024 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: China Builds 300 Nuclear Plants While US Builds Zero
“They have over 300 plants currently either being built or in development. We have zero. Zero plants being built. I think 13 plants that are proposed according to this data that we have here.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 37:48 Ep6. AI Demand / Supply - Models, Agents, the $2T Compute Build Out, Need for More Nuclear & More · Bg2 Pod
Apr 4, 2024 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: France Out-Innovating the US in Nuclear Fission Is a National Embarrassment
“The French are driving more innovation and more efficiency out of nuclear fission than the United States, and we pride ourselves on innovation. That should be a shock and a national embarrassment.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 48:14 Ep6. AI Demand / Supply - Models, Agents, the $2T Compute Build Out, Need for More Nuclear & More · Bg2 Pod
Apr 18, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Robotaxis Will Scale Internationally Before the US
“There are a ton of jurisdictions where I expect this, unfortunately, before I expect it in the US you know, at scale.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 1:10:03 Ep7. The Great IPO Debate, Tesla Robotaxi v Uber, Tech Check | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jun 22, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Gurley: US Will Not Be Globally Competitive Trying to Re-Onshore Manufacturing
“And to stop thinking that you're gonna re-onshore a whole bunch of manufacturers, I don't think we'll be competitive globally.”
Bill Gurley Jun 22, 2024 ▶ 59:28 Ep11. Coatue Conference Recap, Tesla & ISS Controversy | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 9, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Gerstner: Unlikely US nuclear build costs fall 70% to compete with gas
“The idea that we're going to bring the cost of building one of these things down by 70%, which is kind of the target needed to make this competitive in the open market with gas and everything else, I think is very, you know, it's hard to see.”
Brad Gerstner Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 44:23 Ep15: Inside Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 9, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: US export controls prevent nuclear companies from building and exporting
“Well, we have export controls in the United States, which are preventing a lot of these companies from building and exporting.”
Brad Gerstner Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 1:09:43 Ep15: Inside Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 9, 2024
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Gerstner: China is expected to pass US nuclear power generation by 2030
“China's on track, on the other hand, to bring on more capacity capacity in the next 10 years than we've brought on in the last 40 years. They're expected to pass us in terms of total power generation from nuclear by 2030, or thereabouts.”
Brad Gerstner Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 31:15 Ep15: Inside Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 9, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Zawalick: All US commercial nuclear waste fits on one football field
“You roll up all of that footprint, and you got to see it's very small and you take all of the over hundred units in the United States, it would fit in the size of a football field up to the goalposts.”
Maureen Zawalnik Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 26:08 Ep15: Inside Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Gerstner: US baseload power growth will surge over next 5 to 10 years
“When you model out the need for data center capacity over the course of the next five to 10 years, you realize for the first time in really two decades, the US's need to grow its baseload power generation is going to go up significantly, significantly faster t…”
Brad Gerstner Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 47:42 Ep15: Inside Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 9, 2024
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: US nuclear provides 31% of global output and 20% domestic power
“We commissioned our first nuclear electricity generating plant in 1957. The majority of American plants are built in the seventies and eighties. We have 94 plants today online representing 31% of the world's total nuclear energy production. It's 20% of total U…”
Brad Gerstner Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 30:35 Ep15: Inside Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 9, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: South Korea's nuclear regulatory framework is modeled on the US
“Because in South Korea, Their national regulation and the regulatory body that oversees it all is modeled on the US, ok?”
Brad Gerstner Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 1:11:44 Ep15: Inside Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Nov 27, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Gurley: 35% of Chinese university grads study STEM versus under 10% in US
“The number of graduates in China's University system that are STEM is 35%, and that number is below 10 in the US.”
Bill Gurley Nov 27, 2024 ▶ 3:54 BG2 Thanksgiving Roundtable: DOGE, EV Tax Credit, Tariffs, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America · Bg2 Pod
Mar 2, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: US collected $56 billion in tariffs last year
“Last year we had fifty six billion dollars of tariffs imposed on other countries. That's the amount of revenue we collected from tariffs.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 2, 2025 ▶ 51:14 Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Mar 2, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: China will develop frontier AI despite US restrictions
“China is going to have frontier AI and almost all of the things we do to try to slow them down and stop them are backfiring on the United States.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 2, 2025 ▶ 34:35 Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2025 negative
Insight
Gurley: Hindering Foreign Competitors Weakens the US Long-Term
“Protecting the U.S. By trying to somehow injure or disable or hinder a competitor that's in a different country in the long run will make us weaker. I believe that fundamentally.”
Bill Gurley Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 19:19 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: US AI Export Rules Will Help Huawei Dominate Global Markets
“This diffusion rule will make it hard for us to get chips to Saudi Arabia, to the UAE, to India, to, you know, our friends in, in Southeast Asia, and it makes it hard through this regulatory capture that some of the US CSPs put in place, you know, all these ho…”
Brad Gerstner Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 1:01:34 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: US Pressure Could Provoke ASML to Defy China Export Bans
“I could easily see us provoking Europe to the point where the ASML team just says, well, screw it. We don't care what you say. We're selling to China.”
Bill Gurley Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 1:02:52 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Zero chance US stops China's AI progress or widens lead
“I think there's zero chance that you're going to stop China or somehow like I even, I use the phrase increase the gap.”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 38:11 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Navarro-style protectionism will shrink the U.S. AI gap with China
“If we head in the direction of Navarro, it's quite clear to me that we're going to so anger the rest of the world that, ah, the chance that the rest of the world is going to run on US compute. I think what we do in that instance is you move everybody in the di…”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 42:56 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: US Has Effective Embargo on China via 140% Tariffs
“We effectively have an embargo between us and China today, a 140% tariff, export controls, you know, and so we have to renegotiate that deal.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 2:48 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: Trying to Block China From Frontier AI Is a Losing Strategy
“I think the distraction that we can keep China away from frontier level AI, that will be a losing strategy in my mind.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 35:34 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Insight
Gurley: Assuming China cannot innovate will lead to bad US policy
“The thought that they couldn't, you know, be educated or can't innovate is gonna lead you to a lot of really bad policies.”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 39:52 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Insight
Gurley: Tariffs cause inflation, reduce innovation, and trigger retaliation
“Tariffs lead to increased inflation. They lead to reduced innovation. Putting a protective blanket over our companies in our country lead to them being less globally competitive. And then fourth, which you mentioned, you know, it leads to retaliation.”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 10:36 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 neutral
Insight
Gurley: Supply chain resilience can include allies and requires trade consistency
“There's also, if you're using the word resilient, you know, that can include other countries that are allies. It doesn't have to be on the shores of the U.S., and I know people who in the first Trump administration were told to diversify away from China, and t…”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 13:26 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: The US banned Nvidia H20 chip exports to China
“What we did last week is the US did ban H-twenties going to China”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 25:31 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Gerstner: The US won the global internet competition over the past 20 years
“I think anybody who looks back at the last 20 years, Would say that the United States has won, both in terms of free trade, and in terms of the global internet competition. Won, as defined by, improved the standard of living, driven the growth, the economy in …”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 49:44 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Gurley: The US Faces a Huge Labor Problem in Manufacturing Competitiveness
“Those problems are worth solving, but I, I'm still not convinced that we have a, I think we have a huge labor problem trying to be competitive in manufacturing.”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 14:55 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 positive
Opinion
Gerstner: US should use targeted tariffs and subsidies to reshore critical industries
“But I think it's fairly non-controversial that we should have tactic, tactical, narrowly tailored tariffs and tax subsidies and incentives in order to re-onshore some critical capabilities. You know, I mentioned a few chip fabs, some pharma, Critical rare eart…”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 16:43 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Gurley: US AI boom attracted more capital than any prior boom
“Well, first of all, the AI boom in the US has attracted more capital dollars Than I've ever seen accumulated in the history of mankind.”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 18:22 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 positive
Opinion
Gurley: Claiming the US Would Be Better Off Without Free Trade Is Fanciful
“Neil makes a great point about the argument that, oh, we shouldn't have done this. We regret global trade. That argument takes, you're allowing yourself to imagine, you're taking where we are today and competing with an imaginary version of how things evolved …”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 15:08 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Gurley: The US cannot 'win the AI war' because AI is an infinite game
“Almost everyone in the AI space that I see with a microphone in front of them says, The US has to win the AI war. I don't know what that means. And if I guess as to what it means, I don't think it's possible. And so. It's an infinite game, and no one that I ta…”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 46:47 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: Global multi-trillion-dollar tariffs make no sense for reshoring
“What doesn't make a lot of sense to me is that we launched what was kind of this nuclear style tariff war against every country on the planet. And so, just the sequencing of events here, I think is a bit confusing. It should not be this McKinley-style multi-tr…”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 17:13 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Gurley: South Korea, China build nuclear power at one-fourth US cost
“Korea and China are delivering fission nuclear at one-fourth the price we are, and I think that Korea example, South Korea, is very important because that is a democracy. So here's one country that's authoritarian, one that's a democracy, and they're both achi…”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 19:56 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: US Secured Trillion-Dollar Investment Deals With Saudi, Qatar, UAE
“In the first five months of this year, we would have gotten a trillion dollar deal signed with Saudi in terms of their investment in the United States, another trillion dollars with Qatar. Another trillion dollars with the UAE. Those are all investments into t…”
Brad Gerstner May 22, 2025 ▶ 3:59 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025 positive
Opinion
Gerstner: China already has frontier AI and cannot be stopped
“My opinion, and I think you share this, is China already has frontier AI. Huawei is already there. We have demonstrable evidence of that. And their models are already there. Arguably, their open source models might even be in front of the United States at this…”
Brad Gerstner May 22, 2025 ▶ 29:35 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025 positive
Opinion
Gurley: US must open borders wide to skilled Chinese immigrants
“And I've said, you know, for a long time, the number one thing we could do would be to open up our border for skilled immigration from China as wide as we possibly can.”
Bill Gurley May 22, 2025 ▶ 1:13:48 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Around 50% of US AI researchers are Chinese
“I saw a stat the other day. I think 50% of researchers, AI researchers in the United States of America are Chinese.”
Brad Gerstner May 22, 2025 ▶ 1:12:32 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025 negative
What-if
Gurley: Previous US AI policies risked ceding global market to China
“I think we were headed towards a path where we were going to have a wall around America and there was going to be America AI and then China AI was going to have the rest of the world, the opposite of the internet.”
Bill Gurley May 22, 2025 ▶ 13:57 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025 positive
Opinion
Gerstner: The US should sell AI chips to China to protect the CUDA ecosystem
“Are we better off selling to those countries, those companies, keeping companies like ByteDance and Tencent, et cetera, in the CUDA ecosystem, rather than allowing all of that data, all of those profits to flow right into the Huawei ecosystem and benefit the C…”
Brad Gerstner May 22, 2025 ▶ 29:59 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Targeted tariffs generate roughly $300B in revenue
“And if you put China at 30% on strategic at 15% on non-strategic and the rest of the world roughly at 10%, you come up with about three hundred billion in tariffs, okay? I just told you that last year tariffs were seventy seven billion, so that's still a forex…”
Brad Gerstner May 22, 2025 ▶ 25:37 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jun 6, 2025
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: 40% to 50% of Top US AI Researchers Are Chinese
“I saw a study that suggested that 40 to 50% of the AI researchers in the United States, our best researchers, are Chinese.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 32:48 China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jun 6, 2025
Assertion Supported
Gurley: China Now Produces More AI Patents Than the US
“And I believe now the patent count And AI coming out of China is larger than the US.”
Bill Gurley Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 29:42 China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jun 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Rare earth shortages could disrupt the US economy for six quarters
“If we don't do this, then we're going to have a massively disrupted economy over the next six quarters, slowing down economic growth and causing problems and critical shortages in parts to the military, in parts to our US auto industry, et cetera.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 41:00 China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jun 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Around zero percent of leading-edge semiconductor chips are fabricated outside Taiwan
“Today, we have about zero percent of leading edge chips fabbed outside of Taiwan, right? Almost nothing in the United States.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 44:29 China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jul 10, 2025 neutral
Insight
Dell: US has a government spending problem, not a loan-to-value problem
“I've sort of stepped back from the hysterics and you say, we don't have a loan to value problem as a country. We have a spending problem.”
Michael Dell Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 28:37 Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Jul 31, 2025 positive
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: The US and China will strike a major deal before year-end
“I think that there's going to be a big Chinese deal done before the year's out.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 1:01:37 China Open-Source, Compute Arms Race, Reordering Global Trade | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Protective tariffs will lead to inflation and lower US living standards
“Now your consumers don't have access to those price points, and so you're buying inferior goods at inflated prices, and that's going to lead to inflation and prosperity and standard of living levels dropping in the US.”
Bill Gurley Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 40:48 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Gerstner: US Must Reshore and Compete with China, Not Decouple
“I'd probably put myself in this camp who thinks we have to compete. We have to re onshore industry. You probably should have some tariffs in order to achieve that, but you definitely can't decouple or ignore or antagonize.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 4:10 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 neutral
Insight
Gerstner: America Must Accelerate Innovation Rather than Try Slowing China Down
“The way to beat them is not to, you know, try to cut them off at the knees. We don't need to make it easy on them. But the United States needs to accelerate our race, and I think by, if we focus too much on how do we slow down China, we take the eye off the ba…”
Brad Gerstner Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 1:04:10 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Gurley: US auto manufacturing requires around six employees per car per day
“That number is like at six in the U S”
Bill Gurley Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 17:54 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 positive
Opinion
Gurley: China Prioritizes Face-Saving Over Numbers in Trade Negotiations
“China's gonna be far more biased by what they view as As fair and face saving than they are necessarily like numeric. And so I think if we, if someone were to approach them in a pragmatic way, I think a pragmatic deal could easily get done.”
Bill Gurley Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 31:09 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: US nuclear fission reactors cost 4x to 5x more to build
“Why does it cost us four to five times to build a fission reactor in this country? Why are we building no nuclear reactors in this country?”
Brad Gerstner Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 46:39 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025
Insight
Gerstner: Blaming China's tech rise on theft breeds US complacency
“If we have this view, the only reason China's competitive or winning is because they're stealing or they're subsidized. I think what that view does is it allows us to delude ourselves into believing we don't need to get better ourselves.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 45:30 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: US Represents Only 14% of China's Exports and 3% of GDP
“If you look at it today, the U S only represents about 14% of China's exports. The U S only represents about three percent of China's GDP.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 22:04 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 28, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Gurley: Around 50% of US AI Researchers Are Chinese
“You've seen these other charts where like 50% Of the AI researchers in America are Chinese”
Bill Gurley Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 1:02:12 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Huang: China is 'nanoseconds behind' the US in AI capability
“And three, they're years behind us. Is it two years, three years? Come on, they're nanoseconds behind us.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:11:23 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 negative
Opinion
Huang: Restricting US immigration as a China hawk is unpatriotic
“It's almost like a badge of honor. It's a badge of shame. There's no question it's a badge of shame. There's no question that although they want what's in the best interest of our country, and we all want what's in the best interest of our country, destroying …”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:26:05 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Huang: Drop in Chinese students staying in US is existential crisis
“Definitely see a greater concern of Chinese students who come here and remain here. And, or many of them who come here for school and are thinking about going elsewhere. Many of them thinking about Europe. And so, so I think we need to be super, super concerne…”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:24:14 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 negative
Opinion
Huang: Decoupling the US and China is entirely the wrong concept
“You can't decouple against the single most The two most important relationships for the next century. That doesn't make any sense at all. Decoupling is exactly the wrong concept.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:27:52 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: $100k H-1B fee might accelerate investment outside the US
“It also has an unintended consequence. It might accelerate investment outside United States.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:21:13 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 31, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: EU and US Will Not Harmonize AI Regulations
“I don't think that's going to happen.”
Sam Altman Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 26:50 All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
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