augmented reality

also referred to as: ar

7 statements across 5 episodes · 1 bullish · 4 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Nov 2, 2021 by Benedict Evans · across every show →

Everything said about augmented reality, oldest first

Nov 2, 2021 negative
Insight
Evans: Porting desktop typing paradigms into VR repeats past platform mistakes
“And like, all this time you're spending showing how I can type on an AR screen, like, do you really think the future of this is going to be typing? That just feels like such sort of, let's take what we do on our Macs and put them in VR, which is so totally not…”
Benedict Evans Nov 2, 2021 ▶ 25:57 The Meta reality
May 16, 2022 bearish
Insight
Evans: Designing metaverse social networks ten years early is futile
“The challenge is at this point, we're sort of designing social networks in 10 years time. Which kind of comes back to my, you know, the more we spend time we spend saying, so this is how I think it's all going to work. The more you're like, we have no idea how…”
Benedict Evans May 16, 2022 ▶ 29:10 Metaverse - how to be wrong in the right way
May 16, 2022 neutral
Insight
Evans: Web3 and the Metaverse Are Completely Independent Technologies
“And so I think that, you know, there's sort of a grounding point, you know, if in five to 10 years, we are all using consumer services or business services or, you know, infrastructure or something that's all running on blockchains, which is basically what we …”
Benedict Evans May 16, 2022 ▶ 3:46 Metaverse - how to be wrong in the right way
Oct 31, 2022 negative
Insight
Evans: Treat Current VR and AR Projects Strictly as Pure Experiments
“And so even if you think that VR and AR are going to work and are going to be the universal thing, think of anything you're doing now as pure experiment, pure learning, pure interest, with no expectation that this is going to be meaningful.”
Benedict Evans Oct 31, 2022 ▶ 28:14 How many metaverses?
Oct 31, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: VR hardware will unquestionably reach lightweight ski-goggle form factor
“And so you can look at VR and AR and say, like, unquestionably, these things will get way better. The displays will get better. They will get much lighter. We know that for VR. For AR, it's a little bit more open whether the optics will really get us to someth…”
Benedict Evans Oct 31, 2022 ▶ 6:10 How many metaverses?
Apr 16, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Evans: No optical AR technology currently achieves workable outdoor depth and occlusion
“No one has actually got to a point where you have a good field of view, it has depth of field, it works in the outdoors, it can occlude bright objects.”
Benedict Evans Apr 16, 2023 ▶ 20:21 Metaverse and crypto - beyond the BS
Jun 18, 2023
Insight
Benedict Evans: Augmented reality requires a strict visual realism threshold to work
“Whereas for AR, it either looks like it's there or it looks, or it doesn't. That's the thesis. And so it has to have that base level. And so Apple is basically saying that all the stuff that's on the market now just isn't worth selling.”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 8:29 Vision Pro, two weeks on
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