The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baker: US deficit financing via printed money creates self-reinforcing inflation
“Initially there was a lot of inflation when you, when you're running hot like we are today, and you're financing a huge fiscal deficit like we are today with printed money like we are today, you get into this self-reinforcing inflationary cycle like we had in …”
Baker: Asset bubbles are always caused by central bank over-printing
“The thing that causes that is always an economically inappropriate amount of central bank printing, and what started in the nineties was, this was really the first time any foreign banks had been materially involved in U.S. Debt purchases.”
Baker: AI productivity redistributes income from displaced workers to adopting companies
“Productivity is income saved by companies that use AI and income lost by the workers that they no longer have to hire. You know, it's a force that redistributes income within the economy”
Baker: Central Bank Constraints Will Reopen Massive Opportunities for Alpha Macro Strategies
“Macro has been a challenged environment for 10 years because volatility has been suppressed by the central banks. They smooth everything out. They've printed a bunch of money, created a lot of dislocations. So if they're not able to do that anymore because the…”
Baker: Globalization suppressed inflation by offsetting Western consumption with cheap supply
“Set in motion globalization, all of the trade deals we saw since then, the wave of essentially bringing three billion people into the global labor market that depressed wages and provided a bunch of cheap outsourced supply for things. So yes, you have Western …”
Baker: Hegemonic Powers Decay When Innovation Lags and Military Is Overstretched
“Typically a new one takes over or you start to get some sort of decay in the existing order when there's a lack of technological innovation. So the US and also to some degree when you're overstretched from military perspective, because then all your sort of op…”