why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: Reinforcement learning will eventually beat any benchmark with a clear feedback loop
“I think the natural conclusion of RL, which is what we're kind of getting to, is you basically can solve any benchmark, which is insane to think about... Which means like, if you have a clean set of environments, if you have a good feedback loop to decide what…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: Within five years, software engineering will just be describing what to build
“And I think that's kind of what we're going to get to over the next, I'll call it like five or so years is a point where Software engineering. We might even still call it software engineering or programming or whatever, but it's, it really is just you telling …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: Lowering barrier to coding will drastically increase total software built
“And I think we're going to see something similar here where it's, you know, imagine, imagine the w w w what we will do, you know, when we get to the point where everyone can just build products and websites and apps and whatever it is of that level of quality …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott Wu: AI coding will shift toward proactive, event-driven autonomous work
“So you're gonna see a lot more, I think, proactive work. You're gonna see a lot more basically like event-driven kickoff work where it's, it doesn't have to be human that's moderating it every step of the way.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: Each person will have their own team of AI assistants
“I think on a per person basis, each person is just gonna have their own team of AI assistants that's gonna help them do a lot more.”