The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 34 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Scott Wu: Agent-forward engineers see 5x to 10x productivity gains
“I think right now, you know, you have this core group of, we'll call it like agent forward engineers, right? Or agent forward companies that understand how to use this and they are seeing these, you know, five X, 10 X productivity games as a result.”
Scott Wu: Testing candidates on tasks AI can do is the wrong interview strategy
“And I think if you're asking the question of like, how do we evaluate people on exactly the thing that AI can already do, that's kind of the wrong way.”
Wu: Technical execution matters more in AI than in past tech waves
“I think in AI, what you see is that really excelling on the technical aspect just matters much more, I think, in AI than some of these other fields, and I think there's been lots and lots of businesses in the past that have been very, I'll say, like very inten…”
Scott Wu: Cognition engineers no longer type code
“For us at Cognition, for example, our engineers don't type code anymore.”
Wu: AI agents enable software engineers to focus 10x more on architecture
“10% of that job is basically this really fun part of just pure problem solving, thinking about what you want to build, being creative, like understanding the different solutions, deciding, okay, what architecture makes sense here? How exactly am I going to, yo…”
Wu: AI autonomous work capacity doubles 4-5 times per year
“And I think for the last few years, it's doubled about four or five times every year, you know, which is insane, which means, you know, you wait two or three months and it's already doing twice as much work.”
Wu: Reinforcement learning will eventually beat any benchmark with a clear feedback loop
“I think the natural conclusion of RL, which is what we're kind of getting to, is you basically can solve any benchmark, which is insane to think about... Which means like, if you have a clean set of environments, if you have a good feedback loop to decide what…”
Wu: Devin routinely delivers 6x to 20x efficiency gains for enterprise customers
“We pretty routinely see spots where we can make things like anywhere from six X to 20 X more efficient.”
Wu: Within five years, software engineering will just be describing what to build
“And I think that's kind of what we're going to get to over the next, I'll call it like five or so years is a point where Software engineering. We might even still call it software engineering or programming or whatever, but it's, it really is just you telling …”
Wu: Students should still study computer science despite AI coding advances
“People ask me all the time, you know, it's my son or daughter is, 16, you know, should they even be studying computer science? And I always say, yeah, absolutely. And I think the reason is because these are, you know, the concept level things that actually all…”
Wu: Lowering barrier to coding will drastically increase total software built
“And I think we're going to see something similar here where it's, you know, imagine, imagine the w w w what we will do, you know, when we get to the point where everyone can just build products and websites and apps and whatever it is of that level of quality …”
Wu: The duration of autonomous AI coding tasks doubles every three months
“And the crazy thing is over the last like three, four years, that number has basically, it's doubled approximately every three months.”
Wu: Raw intelligence is no longer the bottleneck in AI
“I think what it kind of shows, I would say is actually, I think we're at a point now where intelligence actually isn't the bottleneck, if that makes sense. You know, I think these models are capable of solving some really, really hard problems.”
Scott Wu: AI autonomous work time doubles four to five times yearly
“And the thing that's really crazy about this stat is, you just see it very consistently double. And I think for the last few years, it's doubled about four or five times every year, you know, which is insane, which means, you know, you wait two or three months…”
Wu: AI autonomous task duration grew from 10 seconds to 18 hours
“One of the stats that people talk about a lot is this METR report, which basically says for each different model that comes out roughly how much human work can it do in an automated fashion before you have to go interrupt it and say, oh, that was wrong. Let's …”
Scott Wu: Citrini's AI thesis gets basic economics wrong
“You know, so, so funnily enough, I think recently we had this whole Cetrini piece come out which I thought was frankly ridiculous. I mean, I think it's, I think it gets a lot of the basic economics wrong is maybe a simple way to put it.”
Wu: AI coding advances faster because executable code provides immediate verifiable feedback
“One of the reasons that code is growing so quickly is because you have this really great feedback loop of success or failure, right? It's, you know, in, in, in healthcare or in law or something like that, you know, it's a lot harder to say, you know, whether y…”
Scott Wu: AI coding will shift toward proactive, event-driven autonomous work
“So you're gonna see a lot more, I think, proactive work. You're gonna see a lot more basically like event-driven kickoff work where it's, it doesn't have to be human that's moderating it every step of the way.”
Wu: One 20-person USACO camp produced Wang, Guo, Ziegler, and Ho
“In my year, actually there were a ton of others who all kind of went into AI. And so obviously Steven and Andrew, who started the company you know, who started Cognition with us but also a ton of others. And so Alexander Wang, who started Scale. Demi Guo, who …”
Wu: Cognition acquired Windsurf and shares engineers across both products
“We bought Windsurf, you know, seven, eight months ago at this point, but like, we don't have a distinction of like, oh, this person's an engineer working on Devon or this person's engineer working on Windsurf. Like a lot of the same people should be people who…”
Wu: Cognition's early 2026 Devin usage surpassed all of 2025
“Today's March ninth, and we actually, at this point, have already done more Devon sessions in our customers in 2026 than we had in 2025. And so basically over the last like two months and change, we've already done more Devon usage in total than we had in all …”
Wu: Cognition lets engineering candidates use unlimited AI during interviews
“For us, and this has always been the case for us, you know, our interview process has always been, you can use as much AI as you want to use. You know, it's just like, we're going to give you a few hours, just build, build your whole own product surface, right…”
Wu: AI coding agents need full environment access, not just text interfaces
“We had the view that instead of pure text interfaces, there was going to be A lot more full interaction where, you know, AI systems could not just read texts and answer questions, but actually just go and interact with the real world and encode. Obviously that…”
Scott Wu: Career success is only possible because of advanced math classes
“I mean, I think the, like, I, I'm only here because of advanced math classes is kind of what I would say”
Scott Wu: AI balances more technical because hard problem-solving yields obvious businesses
“I think that the balance in AI does just inherently swing a lot more technical. You know, it's, there are a lot of pure technical problems that if you can just solve these really, really hard problems, it is incredibly clear, you know, what happens and how you…”
Wu: Generative AI has two distinct waves: imitation and reinforcement learning
“In, in generative AI, you know, everyone talks about kind of the whole generative AI wave. I actually think it's two waves. You know, the first wave is kind of what I'll call like imitation learning, and the second is, is more like RL, reinforcement learning.”
Wu: 'Jagged intelligence' ensures human-AI symbiosis remains necessary for foreseeable future
“One of the cool things about jagged intelligence, I'll just say, is it means that, that humans plus AI really is the way to go, at least for the foreseeable future, right? Because I think there are, certainly there are more and more things that we're seeing th…”
Wu: Each person will have their own team of AI assistants
“I think on a per person basis, each person is just gonna have their own team of AI assistants that's gonna help them do a lot more.”
Wu: Cognition works with Citibank and Santander
“We've been working with a lot of the biggest companies in the world, you know, Citibank, Santander and so on.”
Wu: Cognition Co-Founders Were First Engineers at Scale AI and Cursor
“You know, one of my co-founders, Stephen, was the first engineer at a company called Scale AI, which is doing incredibly well. My other co-founder, Walden, was the first engineer at a company called Cursor.”
Scott Wu: Mark Zuckerberg was a TopCoder competitive programmer
“Mark Zuckerberg actually was a competitor on TopCoder. You can find his profile on TopCoder. He was a competitive programmer”
Wu: Global software engineers grew from under 1 million in 2000 to 30 million
“There's about thirty million software engineers in the world, and my favorite stat that I always love to share is right around the turn, you know, the 1999, 2000, you know, which was internet boom, obviously these things were, you know these things were just, …”