The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Mintz: California spent $20B on homelessness as homeless population rose 20%
“The state has spent twenty billion dollars on homeless services in the last five years. Twenty billion dollars. The number of homeless people in the state's gone up 20% in that time.”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 4:16 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Mintz: Fully autonomous vehicles are at least five years away
“I would say we're at least five years away.”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 23:51 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mintz: Elon Musk could reach Mars by around 2026
“I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if Elon makes it to Mars by twenty-twenty-six or so.”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 33:12 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mintz: 90% of 200 counter-drone systems were ineffective garage-built jammers
“And so there had been a study published that showed there were 200 different systems for counter UAS and 90% of them were crappy jammers that somebody built in their garage for like 40,000 dollars and didn't work.”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 8:54 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Mintz: Passenger car OEM design cycles range from two to ten years
“The passenger car design cycle, depending on if you're talking about a Chinese OEM an American OEM, European or Japanese can go from two to 10 years even”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 20:11 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Mintz: US lacks 80,000 truck drivers with median age nearing 50
“We have 80,000 we're 80,000 truck drivers short. The median age of truck drivers in this country is approaching 50 years old.”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 26:20 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mintz: Asteroid mining is likely about 20 years away
“I think so. I think it's probably more like 20 years away than five years away, but we're certainly trending in that direction”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 32:58 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Mintz: 8,000 People Die in Truck-Related Accidents Annually
“I mean, we have 8000 people that die in truck related accidents every year, and it's just, it's unnecessary, and it's wasteful.”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 28:46 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Partly supported
Mintz: 60 to 70 million automotive radars ship annually
“There's probably something like 60 or seventy million radars that go out the door every year. I would say probably 60% of the cars on the road have one at least in the Ford.”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 15:55 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
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