why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2035
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will scale massively over the next decade
“These human robots, like the general purpose robotics thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: US healthcare is on track to reach 50% of GDP
“Healthcare is 20% of the economy on its way to 50%.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Andreessen: AIs will not get certified as doctors or lawyers anytime soon
“And my, the point in that essay is what Joe just said, which is like, it will be illegal to do that. Like, it's not going to happen because it's going to be illegal. Like AIs are not going to get certified as doctors and lawyers anytime soon. Like that, that I…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: AI will favor defense over offense and reduce violence
“Arguably this swings AI swings very much the advantage of the defender over the attacker, and I think maybe we're already seeing that play out in Ukraine... My guess is this tilts in the direction of defense and therefore in the direction of probably actually …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: AI will revive far-left dreams of central economic planning
“AI is like gonna create a whole new set of dreams of state power, and like I said, the Chinese have one version of that, but, you know, on the far left even in the US, you have this idea the, there's a book called Fully Automated Luxury Communism which is this…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Search will shift from links to direct synthesized answers
“Does the defining paradigm of the era go from, oh, here's a bunch of links. Good luck to here's the answer. Yes. On that, I think it's very, very clear that that's what's going to happen.”