why aren't all 54 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: Hydrogen will redefine every class of commercial and military aircraft
“I think that over time hydrogen propulsion will redefine every class of aircraft that's flown today, both on you know, on the commercial side and for defense applications.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: Joby's chief aerodynamicist is 10x faster using AI
“He's now able to build in an afternoon
What would have previously taken him weeks or months?
he's like, I'm 10 X per 10 X as productive as I was just a few months ago.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: Joby's research team designed aircraft 10x better than current planes
“These are the folks that have a book of a dozen new aircraft designs that not just are like, 10% better than aircraft that we have today, but, you know, five and 10 times better.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: Hydrogen Will Over Time Redefine Every Class of Aircraft
“I think that over time hydrogen propulsion will redefine every class of aircraft that's flown today, both on you know, on the commercial side, and for defense applications.”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Chinese aerospace facilities are scaling for thousands of aircraft yearly
“A few weeks ago, I was in China, and I saw firsthand how fast they're moving... They are, in China, I saw production facilities that are scaling for thousands of aircraft per year.”
Opinion
Bevirt: Struggling US Aerospace Competitors Are "Lashing Out" Instead of Innovating
“There are some companies in this country that are doing incredible engineering and that are actually moving the ball forward. There are others who maybe are struggling and so maybe I'll leave it at that.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bevirt: Joby and FAA agreed on every detail of aircraft design
“This is a moment we've been working for more than a decade to get to the point where we have designs where we've agreed with the FAA on every detail of the design.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: AI Lets Joby Aerodynamicists Compress Months of Work Into Afternoons
“He's now able to build in an afternoon what would have previously taken him weeks or months.”
Insight
Bevirt: In the age of AI, the physical world is the slowest link
“I think in the age of AI, the physical world is the slowest link.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bevirt: Air Travel Costs an Order of Magnitude Less Than Driving
“So air travel today is our lowest cost, highest speed, and safest mode of transport. So it's hundreds of times safer or even thousands of times safer than driving. It is you know, more than 10 times faster, and it's on the order of an order of magnitude less e…”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Battery density reached 300 Wh/kg with 1,000 Wh/kg prototypes coming
“So at that point in time, we were 40 to 50 watt hours a kilogram. Now we're more than 300 watt hours a kilogram, and there's cells in the lab that are up to 500 watt hours a kilogram, and prototypes coming that are over a thousand watt hours.”
Disclosure
Bevirt: Joby targets launch pricing comparable to an Uber Black ride
“So as we launched the service, we want this to be comparable in place to taking an Uber black. And then as we drive that manufacturing scale and get to Hundreds and then thousands and then tens of thousands of aircraft per year and really, you know, leveraging…”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Joby was the first company to complete FAA certification stages 1-3
“So we were the first company to achieve stage Complete the stage one of the certification basis. The first complete stage two, first complete stage three, and now not only Joby, but the FAA is making record progress on stage four.”
Disclosure
Bevirt: Joby secured an initial $1B tranche for Saudi Arabian commercialization
“LJ is really our dream partner as we look to explore the opportunities in, in Saudi, and couldn't be more pleased with this initial tranche of a billion dollars for the commercialization in in Saudi.”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: China certified eVTOL aircraft and ordered hundreds for its economy
“You see countries like China, where the CAC, which is the Chinese equivalent of the FAA, is very forward-leaning, and they're already have companies in this sector that are certified, and then you have the Chinese government, which is buying hundreds of these …”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: eVTOL aircraft can compress two-hour commutes to ten minutes
“It's you know, being able to take a trip that, that, you know, takes you half an hour on the ground and turn into a five or 10 minute trip, you know, and sometimes, sometimes you're replacing a two hour trip because you've got traffic.”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Joby flew a hydrogen-electric VTOL aircraft over 500 miles
“We flew a hydrogen electric version of our VTOL aircraft more than 500 miles”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Hydrogen fuel cells yield a 6x efficiency gain over jet fuel
“Three times lighter the hydrogen is three times lighter than jet fuel. And then we can convert it into propulsion twice as efficiently. So you get a six X gain.”
Disclosure
Joby Invests to Ramp Production to Two to Four Aircraft Monthly
“We've made capital investments to ramp from one to two aircraft a month, and now two to four aircraft a month.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bevirt: Helicopters Have Hundreds of Single Points of Failure
“Instead of a helicopter with, ah, hundreds of single points of failure on the rotor and the tail rotor.”
Insight
Bevirt: Scaling air taxis to thousands in a city requires autonomy
“As you want to scale from hundreds in a community to thousands and then tens of thousands, you really want to do that with autonomy.”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Texas eVTOL landings only require landowner permission
“One of the incredible things, like, as I talked about with Texas it's, it, Texas is one of the places that's super flexible. All you need is the permission of the landowner.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: Joby aircraft fly-by-wire lets first-time simulator pilots fly flawlessly
“One of the really cool things about our aircraft is because of fly bar, you can take your hands off the controls and the aircraft maintains
maintains the attitude. You can get into the simulator and you can fly the aircraft flawlessly the first flight. Hundr…”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Joby Flew Hydrogen-Electric VTOL Aircraft Over 500 Miles
“We flew a hydrogen electric version of our VTOL aircraft more than 500 miles”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: Over 90% of Joby Aircraft Components Are Made In-House
“More than 90% of the components on the aircraft are designed and manufactured in house.”
Insight
Bevirt: eVTOL industry is currently at pre-Model T hand-building stage
“I think about where we are today as being akin to where automotive was in the Before, when we were still hand building them. And the question is going to be how quickly can we move from there to where Ford was when they introduced the Model T.”
Insight
Bevirt: Doubling battery density roughly triples eVTOL flight range
“Well, it's even more than that because you hold a lot of the energy and reserve for contingencies. You don't need to increase the amount of reserve that you hold. And so if you double the energy in the battery, you're actually probably getting three times the …”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Joby Aviation demonstrated a 500-mile hydrogen-electric flight in summer 2024
“And then and then last summer we demonstrated a 500 mile flight with the hydrogen electric aircraft.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bevirt: The Hindenburg's hydrogen did not explode; its fabric envelope burned
“Well, so the interesting thing about the Hindenburg, it was actually the envelope. It was the fabric that covered it, that burned. And the hydrogen is so light that it convex incredibly rapidly. So it's actually not, it didn't actually explode the hydrogen. No…”
Disclosure
Bevirt: Joby shipped its first aircraft to Dubai for hot-weather testing
“So we've shipped the first aircraft off to Dubai. We're going to have it there doing hot weather testing this summer.”
Insight
Bevirt: Vertiport networks scale exponentially unlike linear ground transportation infrastructure
“The thing that's exciting about these kinds of aircraft is compared to ground-based transportation, whether that's rail or cars on the road, those are linear. And so if you want to you know, get more capacity, you need more lanes with this, you can go, you bui…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: The federal administration is expanding air traffic control for eVTOLs
“Yeah, it's, we fit into the airspace just like every other aircraft does, but it's phenomenal that this administration is, is leaning in and really driving forward on revitalizing the air traffic control and expanding the capacity of our air traffic control sy…”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Joby finished reworking certification steps after 2022 FAA rule changes
“We had our path agreed to with the FA and that made it so that we needed to go back and relook at a number of pieces. And the good news is that all of that work is behind us.”
What-if
Bevirt: Joby would have finished certification faster without FAA framework shifts
“We would have gotten to the finish line a lot faster if that curve ball hadn't come along.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: Dozens of companies are building aircraft almost identical to Joby's
“There's now dozens of companies that are building aircraft that look almost identical to ours.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bevirt: Joby aircraft hover about 100 times quieter than conventional helicopters
“Yeah, it's about a hundred times quieter than a helicopter and that's in hover.”
Disclosure
Bevirt: Joby Aviation vertically integrates flight computers, motors, and batteries
“So we we've chosen as a company to be incredibly vertically integrated. So we want to make the best flight computers. We want to make the best air data computers. We want to make the best motors. We want to make the best battery packs. We want to make the best…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: Over 90% of Joby aircraft components are made in-house
“More than 90% of the components on the aircraft. Are designed and manufactured in house.”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Joby Aviation open-sourced its charging standard
“So we open sourced our charging standard. And so anybody can build a charger.”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Hydrogen Has 3x Jet Fuel's Specific Energy and 2x Efficiency
“It's three times the specific energy of jet fuel. And with fuel cells, we can convert that into propulsion twice as efficiently.”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Joby flight tests prove in-flight system failures are transparent to pilots
“In fact, we, we've got two aircraft down at Edwards Air Force Base, and with those aircraft, we've been able to demonstrate the incredible robustness, and we've intentionally shut off lots of different systems on the aircraft, and demonstrated in flight that p…”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Joby Aviation's electric aircraft fly at 200 miles per hour
“It's 200 miles an hour.”
Disclosure
Bevirt: Joby Aviation will launch routes up to 100 miles
“So, so it's we'll be launching on routes of up to a hundred miles.”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: Hydrogen has 100 times higher specific energy than modern batteries
“Hydrogen is a hundred times higher specific energy than today's batteries is three times higher specific energy than jet fuel.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: Joby Aviation can build about one aircraft per month
“Today we have capacity to build about one a month and we're ramping that as quick as possible.”
Disclosure
Bevirt: Joby is doubling its Marina manufacturing footprint this month
“We've got doubling our footprint and manufacturing footprint in Marina, California, that plant plants coming online this month.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bevirt: Joby operates over five aircraft and has flown thousands of flights
“We've got a record number of aircraft flying you know, now more than five aircraft. We have flying thousands of flights.”
Disclosure
Bevirt: Joby varies propeller blade spacing to eliminate tonal harmonic pulsing
“We also do this interesting thing where we vary the spacing of the propeller blades, so instead of having a consistent harmonic, like, duh, duh, duh, duh, duh, it spreads them out, and it spreads the noise out, and so that gives it that shhh sound instead of t…”