why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ross: In five years, workers will one-shot custom software, making SaaS worthless
“If you take the five year view, kids who are in college today who come out and start working in a construction company or something are going to look at every problem they're paying for software and say, this doesn't do exactly what I need. And I can one shot …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ross: Mid-market SaaS will be worthless in five years due to AI
“I think it's a barbell thing. Like, the large AI companies are gonna eat the top end of value, and everyone in the middle is gonna just commoditize, or people who aren't even in the software business. Like, in the next two or three years, this isn't true, righ…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ross: Foundation models will build apps targeting high-volume token usage
“Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, they're all gonna, in the same way that you probably don't want to build an email company while Google's on its arise, because they're gonna come and eat that, like, every one of these companies is looking at, where are our tokens be…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
JD Ross: Foundation model labs will attack vertical professional services software
“And I think over time I would be surprised if more of that doesn't get attacked by The large AI foundational companies.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
JD Ross: Enterprise absorption will bottleneck AI adoption for years
“The ability to absorb and adopt the tools is going to be the limiting factor for years to come. And I think that the capabilities of these models is already so far ahead of our ability in most enterprises to just absorb and adopt change that that is like the w…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ross: Foundational AI labs will attack vertical AI players like Harvey
“And there's, you know, there's companies like Harvey who are going in saying we're going to be the ones who win on professional service, you know, AI for Legal or for accounting and things like that. Yeah. And I think over time, I would be surprised if more of…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ross: Enterprise capacity to adopt tools is AI's primary limiting factor
“I think right now the ability to absorb and adopt the tools is going to be the limiting factor for years to come.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ross: AI will scale automated cold calling to hundreds of thousands
“So, if it works for humans, it's going to work with AI, and so you're going to get not one or two or five calls, it's going to be 10,000, a 100,000.”