why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Scott: Global venture investments are on track to exceed $1T in 2026
“So the, these numbers are kind of apples to oranges, but I think they're, we're on track in 20, 26 to clear a trillion dollars of venture capital. Globally.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scott: Mega-funds neglect hundreds of startups growing 50% to 150% annually
“And there are hundreds of companies out there that are working on big, super important problems with great teams. They have high product market fit. They have growth rates that are 50 to 150% year over year. But they might not be a trillion dollar company. Tho…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scott: VCs rarely choose their hottest startups for personal net worth bets
“We would ask them, if you had to put all of your net worth, liquid net worth into one company, which company would it be? And that company was rarely the hottest company in their portfolio, in part because they already had massive e-liquid exposure to that com…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scott: Private companies beyond the top 50 trade at value-investment multiples
“However, if you look just beyond sort of the top 50 private companies, you go from incredibly high multiples to extremely reasonable multiples that look almost, almost like they're very good value investments.”
Assertion Supported
Scott: Annual VC deployment has increased tenfold over the past 10–15 years
“Roughly speaking, we're talking about a 10 X increase in the number of venture dollars that are put to work every year from, call it, 10 or 15 years ago.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scott: Top 20 VC fund sizes grew 9x due to capital concentration
“The LP dollars that are going into venture are concentrated into fewer and fewer funds. Those fund sizes have basically nine acts on average. If you just look at the top 20 funds”
Assertion Supported
Scott: Bill Gates's technical assistants became Microsoft's next-generation leaders
“Bill Gates had a bunch of these. They became the next generation of leaders at Microsoft.”